COVID-19 Talk

[Ralph Wiggum]

On 4/7/2020 at 7:58 AM, mappy said:

is this in MD, or PA?

PA. 

[showmethesnow]

Was looking over this report by ABC News trying to decide if there could possibly be any validity to it and to the urgency implied. At this point call me highly skeptical especially when it comes to the urgency if we are going by the CCP's timeline. Timeline of events in Wuhan as we know it just does not support this (First confirmed case by the CCP was Dec 10 at Wuhan market). This would basically imply that our intelligence services have precognitive abilities that stretch weeks in advance. Any possible report would have more then likely come a couple of weeks later (again going by the timeline) and would probably not have conveyed the urgency that the article suggests. Now information that was coming out of China during this period of time was filtered through CCP so let's just be polite and call it very questionable. Other sources of information coming from outside of CCP control have to be questioned as well. So in other words, though I highly question the article below, which has since been denied by the NCMI, I would not completely rule it out as we can not be absolutely sure of the facts we think we might know.

https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/intelligence-report-warned-coronavirus-crisis-early-november-sources/story?id=70031273

BUT....... I did mention awhile ago that I thought there was the possibility that we saw an earlier flareup then what we are currently led to believe per the CCP. Sometime in November either in Wuhan or somewhere else.  One that the Chinese may have thought they snuffed out only to have flare back up. Have read bits and pieces over the last couple of weeks of confirmed cases starting in Mid November that would imply this earlier flareup. Researching into the above article this morning I came across this.

https://www.scmp.com/news/china/society/article/3074991/coronavirus-chinas-first-confirmed-covid-19-case-traced-back

Here are two relevant comments.

According to the government data seen by the Post, a 55 year-old from Hubei province could have been the first person to have contracted Covid-19 on November 17.

From that date onwards, one to five new cases were reported each day. By December 15, the total number of infections stood at 27 – the first double-digit daily rise was reported on December 17 – and by December 20, the total number of confirmed cases had reached 60.

 

Now if the above information is correct this would put a whole new light on the ABC News article above. One that would fit more into the articles narrative. One I could believe though I still might question the urgency just a little bit because I think any report would have been more of an FYI at that time. 

[showmethesnow]

I have seen far too many article of this nature. And to think, these people live among us. Kind of puts a chill down your spine when you really think about it.

https://www.foxnews.com/us/california-woman-arrested-for-allegedly-licking-nearly-2000-in-grocery-store-items

[Ralph Wiggum]

46 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

Was looking over this report by ABC News trying to decide if there could possibly be any validity to it and to the urgency implied. At this point call me highly skeptical especially when it comes to the urgency if we are going by the CCP's timeline. Timeline of events in Wuhan as we know it just does not support this (First confirmed case by the CCP was Dec 10 at Wuhan market). This would basically imply that our intelligence services have precognitive abilities that stretch weeks in advance. Any possible report would have more then likely come a couple of weeks later (again going by the timeline) and would probably not have conveyed the urgency that the article suggests. Now information that was coming out of China during this period of time was filtered through CCP so let's just be polite and call it very questionable. Other sources of information coming from outside of CCP control have to be questioned as well. So in other words, though I highly question the article below, which has since been denied by the NCMI, I would not completely rule it out as we can not be absolutely sure of the facts we think we might know.

https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/intelligence-report-warned-coronavirus-crisis-early-november-sources/story?id=70031273

BUT....... I did mention awhile ago that I thought there was the possibility that we saw an earlier flareup then what we are currently led to believe per the CCP. Sometime in November either in Wuhan or somewhere else.  One that the Chinese may have thought they snuffed out only to have flare back up. Have read bits and pieces over the last couple of weeks of confirmed cases starting in Mid November that would imply this earlier flareup. Researching into the above article this morning I came across this.

https://www.scmp.com/news/china/society/article/3074991/coronavirus-chinas-first-confirmed-covid-19-case-traced-back

Here are two relevant comments.

According to the government data seen by the Post, a 55 year-old from Hubei province could have been the first person to have contracted Covid-19 on November 17.

From that date onwards, one to five new cases were reported each day. By December 15, the total number of infections stood at 27 – the first double-digit daily rise was reported on December 17 – and by December 20, the total number of confirmed cases had reached 60.

 

Now if the above information is correct this would put a whole new light on the ABC News article above. One that would fit more into the articles narrative. One I could believe though I still might question the urgency just a little bit because I think any report would have been more of an FYI at that time. 

Several cases in late Nov very early Dec of severe respiratory infections, bronchitis, and pneumonia up in my area. I was one of the cases. I never (to my knowledge) had any lung or respiratory illness before. Maybe as a child? But my sicknesses are either "stomach bug" (barfing and the runs with low-grade fever maybe once every other year) OR I get a scratchy throat, supplement with zinc....get a mild sore throat and "head cold" symptoms then gone in 2 days. What I and many of us had a few months ago was different than anything I've had in the past. Brief scratchy throat then no congestion or head cold but rather settled quickly into the chest with a persistent and severe unproductive dry cough, shortness of breath which I couldnt breathe due to the chronic cough and fever of 101-102.5 which doctors and swabs had no diagnosis for us other than being verbally told "it isnt pneumonia it appears to be a different strain of flu". Prescribed bed rest, pedialyte, and tamiflu. Lasted about 4 days before slowly subsiding.

Now I'm not implying this was covid19. One would assume if a bunch of us had it and whatever it was spread around efficiently that many folks would have succumbed to infections and pneumonia and we would have heard of hospitals being overwhelmed. I just find it a weird coincidence that people I spoke to that had this back around thanksgiving dont normally get respiratory sickness but did this time for whatever reason. I did alot of poking around online and best data I could find is there was a mutation/variant of the h1n1pdm09 strain noted in some cases. 

Either way, makes me cringe thinking about how viral mutations can happen under scientist noses so quickly and efficiently without detection until spread around the population.

[showmethesnow]

Now this article is one of the reasons I had issues with Trumps ban on just China and their international travelers. Felt strongly that he should have banned at the same time, if not all international flights, then at least flights from Europe. It was quite obvious to me at that point the virus had already spread beyond China into other countries especially Europe. 

https://www.foxnews.com/science/new-york-area-coronavirus-outbreak-originated-primarily-in-europe-not-china-report

[aldie 22]

Apologies if this was discussed or even disputed but the model everyone is using saying the predictions of total deaths keep going down some of the metrics used are that it assumes a Wuhan style lockdown until the end of May to achieve those numbers. Call me skeptical but I'm not sure that's what is happening in the USA 

[aldie 22]

Also saw that less than 0.5% of Virginians have been tested. Really not sure how we contain this beast when we truly don't know how many have it and where. I know there is some sort of sick love affair with the death total but honestly if we don't stop the spread the death total will just continue to accumulate and I don't give a rats ass how fast that happens it will just continue. If we are ok with that then I guess open this bad boy up May 1st...that will make Phineas happy 

[showmethesnow]

1 minute ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Several cases in late Nov very early Dec of severe respiratory infections, bronchitis, and pneumonia up in my area. I was one of the cases. I never (to my knowledge) had any lung or respiratory illness before. Maybe as a child? But my sicknesses are either "stomach bug" (barfing and the runs with low-grade fever maybe once every other year) OR I get a scratchy throat, supplement with zinc....get a mild sore throat and "head cold" symptoms then gone in 2 days. What I and many of us had a few months ago was different than anything I've had in the past. Brief scratchy throat then no congestion or head cold but rather settled quickly into the chest with a persistent and severe unproductive dry cough, shortness of breath which I couldnt breathe due to the chronic cough and fever of 101-102.5 which doctors and swabs had no diagnosis for us other than being verbally told "it isnt pneumonia it appears to be a different strain of flu". Prescribed bed rest, pedialyte, and tamiflu. Lasted about 4 days before slowly subsiding.

Now I'm not implying this was covid19. One would assume if a bunch of us had it and whatever it was spread around efficiently that many folks would have succumbed to infections and pneumonia and we would have heard of hospitals being overwhelmed. I just find it a weird coincidence that people I spoke to that had this back around thanksgiving dont normally get respiratory sickness but did this time for whatever reason. I did alot of poking around online and best data I could find is there was a mutation/variant of the h1n1pdm09 strain noted in some cases. 

Either way, makes me cringe thinking about how viral mutations can happen under scientist noses so quickly and efficiently without detection until spread around the population.

Not that you can dismiss the possibility but your symptoms pretty much describe any flu. It was probably nothing more then one of the strains that pop up periodically each year. Same with me when I came back from my casino trip up in Wilkes-barre. Developed a cold a day or two after coming back that lingered for weeks. Cough, congestion etc... Felt somewhat sick but could work through it. Kept wondering if it could be covid considering that NY and NJ are only a couple of hours away travel time. But when I think through it I think the odds were slim.

[showmethesnow]

 

10 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said:

Apologies if this was discussed or even disputed but the model everyone is using saying the predictions of total deaths keep going down some of the metrics used are that it assumes a Wuhan style lockdown until the end of May to achieve those numbers. Call me skeptical but I'm not sure that's what is happening in the USA 

Wuhan style lock-down? To the best of my knowledge they are only factoring in Social Distancing. That said, I have and continue to question their 3% infection rate after this wave. Just doesn't make sense with everything I have seen. Think that is under done, possibly by a good bit. And that could have significant impacts to any second wave as it would take possible hosts, especially in the cities where they will see much higher rates then the national avg.,  out of the equation.

[Ralph Wiggum]

Is there any truth to the USA running low on test kits past several days? Seeing articles stating we used a few millions tests up rather quickly and have hit a threshold where they are just not able to keep up with the demand currently. Could this explain the leveling off of new cases we are seeing? Or is there validity to the curve beginning to flatten? I know in NY they are saying more people leaving hospitals as recoveries than are entering so those numbers could potentially be documented as factual yes?

[aldie 22]

5 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

 

Wuhan style lock-down? To the best of my knowledge they are only factoring in Social Distancing. That said, I have and continue to question their 3% infection rate after this wave. Just doesn't make sense with everything I have seen. Think that is under done, possibly by a good bit. And that could have significant impacts to any second wave as it would take possible hosts, especially in the cities where they will see much higher rates then the national avg.,  out of the equation.

Interesting statement from Dr. Birx that there are a million tests at Abbott labs that are in backlog because the testing machines are down. I want the country back open sooner rather than later but dang let's know how many and where and get this thing totally contained first and then come back strong!

[showmethesnow]

1 minute ago, leesburg 04 said:

Interesting statement from Dr. Birx that there are a million tests at Abbott labs that are in backlog because the testing machines are down. I want the country back open sooner rather than later but dang let's know how many and where and get this thing totally contained first and then come back strong!

First I had heard that but am not surprised. This is one of the reasons I brought forward that the WHO test, that some were going on about, as not being a viable solution .Pretty much shows the issues we would have dealt with when we only have a few facilities that can do the lab testing. The tests get backed up quickly when these labs have to cultivate the virus long enough to get an accurate reading (2 days I believe?). They get backed up so quickly that they become for the most part useless as the virus quickly out races the speed that we can get the results back. Right now they have several tests that will give results within a manner of hours, if not minutes, and it is just a matter of confirming the accuracy and then getting them mass produced.

I also have to wonder if the lack of getting test results back is also handicapping the model on Infection rates?

[mappy]

10 hours ago, snowfan said:

Correct....no chance schools are reopening this academic year. It's just not official yet.

I've seen Hogan's communication people mention it more frequently the last two days, about them looking into schools reopening in the fall. 

we are planning that mini-map will not be going back to school this academic year. we just haven't said it out loud to her. 

[Eskimo Joe]

27 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Is there any truth to the USA running low on test kits past several days? Seeing articles stating we used a few millions tests up rather quickly and have hit a threshold where they are just not able to keep up with the demand currently. Could this explain the leveling off of new cases we are seeing? Or is there validity to the curve beginning to flatten? I know in NY they are saying more people leaving hospitals as recoveries than are entering so those numbers could potentially be documented as factual yes?

Almost every lab is backed up and many are low on the reagents necessary to run the tests.  Our output is a trickle nationally of what's coming in, especially in the DC to Providence corridor.

[Eskimo Joe]

The Feds are ending Federal funding for testing this Friday unless something changes.  Can't have a pandemic if you can't test for it!

[H2O]

11 hours ago, jaydreb said:

Sorry, I didn’t see where he lived.  They are closed for the rest of the year in Virginia.  I think chances are slim to none that Maryland returns to school but I have no particlar insight into it.  

This is where I will give Northam in VA props for going ahead and closing schools the rest of the year.  When he did it some said it was premature but as we see it play out it was the right call.  Even if social distancing thats going on right now helps flatten the curve and we trend better before May there is too much risk.  The second wave would be bad if all the kids and teachers and staff went back for two months just to get kids some last min learning.

I want my kids in school but I want them safe.  Figure out the trends and how this spreads via testing and data and then make the decision.  Rushing back is dangerous.

[H2O]

1 minute ago, Eskimo Joe said:

The Feds are ending Federal funding for testing this Friday unless something changes.  Can't have a pandemic if you can't test for it!

Someone just wants to close the blinds and say all is well.  

[showmethesnow]

Just now, H2O said:

This is where I will give Northam in VA props for going ahead and closing schools the rest of the year.  When he did it some said it was premature but as we see it play out it was the right call.  Even if social distancing thats going on right now helps flatten the curve and we trend better before May there is too much risk.  The second wave would be bad if all the kids and teachers and staff went back for two months just to get kids some last min learning.

I want my kids in school but I want them safe.  Figure out the trends and how this spreads via testing and data and then make the decision.  Rushing back is dangerous.

I guess I can see the hesitancy by some to not flat out close schools for the rest of the year. But I myself thought it was pretty obvious that this would have to be done. Now I am referring to our particular region. Really don't know if you could apply that to other portions of our country in the far less populace states (such as upper plains).

[showmethesnow]

Sounds more as if the testing sites are transitioning from a local/community level to more so a State level. But what that means in the way of funding I am not sure. So it could very well be a case where the funding is ceasing to go directly to these smaller scale operations and actually going elsewhere to provide for the State Wide management.

 

A spokesperson for the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services tells NPR, “Many of the Community-Based Testing Sites (CBTS) are not closing, but rather transitioning to state-managed sites on or about April 10.”

The agency and a spokesperson for FEMA say the CBTS program was intended as a stop-gap to bring testing to critical locations, especially for health care facility workers and first responders.

“The transition will ensure each state has the flexibility and autonomy to manage and operate testing sites within the needs of their specific community and to prioritize resources where they are needed the most,” the HHS spokesperson said.

 

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

1 hour ago, showmethesnow said:

Now this article is one of the reasons I had issues with Trumps ban on just China and their international travelers. Felt strongly that he should have banned at the same time, if not all international flights, then at least flights from Europe. It was quite obvious to me at that point the virus had already spread beyond China into other countries especially Europe. 

https://www.foxnews.com/science/new-york-area-coronavirus-outbreak-originated-primarily-in-europe-not-china-report

I saw a study, maybe I can find it later, that Even if you stopped 99 out of 100 flights for every impacted area, which is effectively impossibleC you only delay the pandemic by a few weeks. 

[showmethesnow]

6 minutes ago, DCTeacherman said:

I saw a study, maybe I can find it later, that Even if you stopped 99 out of 100 flights for every impacted area, which is effectively impossibleC you only delay the pandemic by a few weeks. 

True. You can never get total containment when the virus is so wide spread as it was at that point. All you can hope to do is substantially cut into the numbers that are actually getting into the States. In small enough numbers that if you can't at least contain the hot spots that will pop up you can at least buy yourself some extra time. As I said, his ban was a good start but I don't think it went far enough.

[Eskimo Joe]

1 hour ago, showmethesnow said:

Sounds more as if the testing sites are transitioning from a local/community level to more so a State level. But what that means in the way of funding I am not sure. So it could very well be a case where the funding is ceasing to go directly to these smaller scale operations and actually going elsewhere to provide for the State Wide management.

 

A spokesperson for the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services tells NPR, “Many of the Community-Based Testing Sites (CBTS) are not closing, but rather transitioning to state-managed sites on or about April 10.”

The agency and a spokesperson for FEMA say the CBTS program was intended as a stop-gap to bring testing to critical locations, especially for health care facility workers and first responders.

“The transition will ensure each state has the flexibility and autonomy to manage and operate testing sites within the needs of their specific community and to prioritize resources where they are needed the most,” the HHS spokesperson said.

 

A lot of the states are not going to be able to handle this.  Between the logistics coordination for PPE, surge and this political hand grenade that was dumped in our lap, it's a tenuous time.  There is an unusual amount of discord and lack of support from the Feds this go around and it's significantly complicating things on the state and local level.

[ErinInTheSky]

 

Even though this is for Louisiana, this is basically the case for everyone. 

 

[EastCoast NPZ]

 

35 minutes ago, supernovasky said:

 

Even though this is for Louisiana, this is basically the case for everyone. 

 

People will adapt.  Whether face masks become the norm, or not, people will quickly get on living.  

[EastCoast NPZ]

This perception that some magical cure treatment, or vaccine, is needed before economic activity can resume is pure fiction.  No one shuttered their businesses out of fear of the virus; they were forced to by a government.  Most people are not shuttered in their safe spaces out of fear of the virus; nothing is open for them to go do.

[CAPE]

3 minutes ago, EastCoast NPZ said:

This perception that some magical cure treatment, or vaccine, is needed before economic activity can resume is pure fiction.  No one shuttered their businesses out of fear of the virus; they were forced to by a government.  Most people are not shuttered in their safe spaces out of fear of the virus; nothing is open for them to go do.

it wont be needed to get back to some semblance of normalcy, but the modified "behaviors" will need to continue. I think most people will abide by it because of some residual fear and simply being used to doing it. I will be ready to roll. I am concerned about how long the travel restrictions will be maintained though. June - August is my time to travel. Also have friends scheduled to come here from across the pond in a couple months.

[mappy]

MD 10am update

[showmethesnow]

PA just closed schools for the remainder of the year. More then likely MD will be following shortly. Question I now have is, how do these students make up this work? I know we are talking remote/distant learning being thrown out in many cases but will that be enough? Especially for those students that come from a family with minimal means/money? Wife has told me that they have had serious issues in portions of MD especially in this regards. Guess it will be a learning process over the next few months to figure out the best method. Might involve some out of the box thinking to get this done.

[mappy]

2 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

PA just closed schools for the remainder of the year. More then likely MD will be following shortly. Question I now have is, how do these students make up this work? I know we are talking remote/distant learning being thrown out in many cases but will that be enough? Especially for those students that come from a family with minimal means/money? Wife has told me that they have had serious issues in portions of MD especially in this regards. Guess it will be a learning process over the next few months to figure out the best method. Might involve some out of the box thinking to get this done.

ha, was coming to post the same news. I imagine MD will follow suit, but may not announce right away. 

IMO: they just pass everyone and start next year fresh. Maybe do some review of what the kids should have been learning, but just move forward. Kids cant repeat years, you can't hold back seniors from graduating, etc. It won't be pretty but I dont know how else they do it.

[Eskimo Joe]

Expect most other jurisdictions to follow suit: