COVID-19 Talk

[EastCoast NPZ]

1 hour ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Hi everyone,

This morning the first member of my extended family passed away due to COVID-19. We were pretty close. The grief is hard but I’m being strong for the rest of my family. Unfortunately, this may not be our only loss as two other members of the family are in the hospital and not doing well. 

Please keep us in your prayers, and I just have to say that while I know some are uncomfortable with a thread like this because of the politics and somber topic of discussion, it has personally helped me immensely because I’m able to talk and connect on this in a way I just can’t with family that struggle to talk about mortality and data/policy. A lot of us will know pain during this time. This helps ease my burden. 

Thank you.

So terribly sorry to hear that.  Prayers for comfort for you and your family.

[showmethesnow]

5 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

As supernovasky brought up. We will be better prepared at that point. But another factor that may play an even bigger part is that we will see nowhere near the infection rate we are currently seeing. This first round will be the biggie by far as I expect we at the very least see an infection rate of 15-20% throughout the States (think herd immunity starting to kick in somewhat as potential hosts have been taken out of the equation). I just don't think we are going to be able to escape this. That alone will dampen a decent amount the infection rate on any secondary go round. But that isn't the biggest thing to consider. If you note where the major hot spots are generally located they are for the most part centered on major metropolitan areas and they have been spreading outwards into the suburbs. These high density population centers are fertile breeding grounds for spreading this disease. We will see by far the highest infection rates within these cities. As they spread out the infection rates will continue to lower as the population density decreases until you get out into the rural areas where the infection rates will be very low. As far as the cities I really cringe when I consider some of the infection rates we may actually see especially with what we are seeing within NY. If I hear some reports approaching 35-40+  I don't think I would be that surprised. So what does that mean as for a possible followup? It means that there is a good chance that many of the major cities will approach if not achieve achieve herd immunity where the worst we see is sporadic cases here and there. This pretty much would take out these fertile breeding grounds that were pretty much the catalyst for spread. That leaves the areas outside of the cities to consider. They will have seen smaller infection rates but they also have lower population density. So the herd immunity factor is lower then the cities. So they may not achieve true herd immunity but they are probably getting close as to where it will have a fairly significant impact on infection rates. Then you get out into the rural regions. The rural regions will have the lowest infection rate probably by far of all as the population density just does not support a major flareup.

So all that said. If we do see a secondary peak come next year what would it look like? Well I wouldn't rule out some cities flaring up that are mostly spared this go round. But I think the focus will be more so centered on the suburbs which will probably mostly be composed of much smaller flareups that can be contained. Then in the rural areas we probably see sporadic cases or even possibly very minor flareups here and there. I doubt very much that we would need to see a major shutdown of the whole US again. It will be more in the way of shutting down smaller regions around these much smaller flareups. So really, I don't think any secondary surge with this virus will even sniff what we are currently in the middle of. It would probably be magnitudes lower in impacts.

Really was conflicted on whether I wanted to add this or not to the above post. People are scared enough as it is and this is just another worry to pile on the crap heap. But after reflecting on it for a few minutes I thought it was better to be educated to the possibilities as opposed to being caught totally flat footed. One thing we have to consider is the possibility of a mutation. We see that and all bets are off. Don't know enough to know if this would put us back to square one with dealing with this virus but it sure would be a hell of a setback. That said, and I am going by what I have read from the professionals who make a living off these studies, this is an extremely stable virus with a very low mutation rate. Odds are strongly against this scenario even playing out.

[Ralph Wiggum]

18 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

Really was conflicted on whether I wanted to add this or not to the above post. People are scared enough as it is and this is just another worry to pile on the crap heap. But after reflecting on it for a few minutes I thought it was better to be educated to the possibilities as opposed to being caught totally flat footed. One thing we have to consider is the possibility of a mutation. We see that and all bets are off. Don't know enough to know if this would put us back to square one with dealing with this virus but it sure would be a hell of a setback. That said, and I am going by what I have read from the professionals who make a living off these studies, this is an extremely stable virus with a very low mutation rate. Odds are strongly against this scenario even playing out.

Yes, I think most of the mutations seen thus far have been trivial and not really affecting the severity of the virus or major characteristics. Just enough gene changes to be able to track infection zones. I know for example they tracked one of the strains on a cruise ship to the same genetic makeup from Washington state. So hopefully it remains 'stable' with only about 2 mutations per month. I think I read typical influenza undergoes about 8-10 mutations per month thus why there are different vaccines all the time. Hopefully one and done with covid19 irt vaccination.

[nj2va]

2 hours ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Hi everyone,

This morning the first member of my extended family passed away due to COVID-19. We were pretty close. The grief is hard but I’m being strong for the rest of my family. Unfortunately, this may not be our only loss as two other members of the family are in the hospital and not doing well. 

Please keep us in your prayers, and I just have to say that while I know some are uncomfortable with a thread like this because of the politics and somber topic of discussion, it has personally helped me immensely because I’m able to talk and connect on this in a way I just can’t with family that struggle to talk about mortality and data/policy. A lot of us will know pain during this time. This helps ease my burden. 

Thank you.

So sorry to read this and I can only imagine how difficult it is for you.  I will keep you in my prayers.  

[LP08]

2 hours ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Hi everyone,

This morning the first member of my extended family passed away due to COVID-19. We were pretty close. The grief is hard but I’m being strong for the rest of my family. Unfortunately, this may not be our only loss as two other members of the family are in the hospital and not doing well. 

Please keep us in your prayers, and I just have to say that while I know some are uncomfortable with a thread like this because of the politics and somber topic of discussion, it has personally helped me immensely because I’m able to talk and connect on this in a way I just can’t with family that struggle to talk about mortality and data/policy. A lot of us will know pain during this time. This helps ease my burden. 

Thank you.

Man, so sorry to hear this.  Your family is in my thoughts.  Stay strong, friend.

[nw baltimore wx]

Echoing everyone else's thoughts and prayers to WxWatcher007 and his family.  So sorry for your loss.

[Cobalt]

2 hours ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Hi everyone,

This morning the first member of my extended family passed away due to COVID-19. We were pretty close. The grief is hard but I’m being strong for the rest of my family. Unfortunately, this may not be our only loss as two other members of the family are in the hospital and not doing well. 

Please keep us in your prayers, and I just have to say that while I know some are uncomfortable with a thread like this because of the politics and somber topic of discussion, it has personally helped me immensely because I’m able to talk and connect on this in a way I just can’t with family that struggle to talk about mortality and data/policy. A lot of us will know pain during this time. This helps ease my burden. 

Thank you.

Incredibly sorry to hear this, sending my thoughts to your family and extended family, and hopefully the other two members of that family will turn for the best

[Inverted_Trough]

35 - 40% of the tests are coming back positive from NY/NJ.  That doesn't mean 35% of the population has the virus.  For the most part, only symptomatic people are getting tested.  Unless we randomly test people throughout NY/NJ, we have no idea what the true infection percentage in the population is.

Generally, the rule of thumb is that there are about 5 to 10 times as many actual COVID carriers than what is confirmed by testing.  So if we're looking at NYC, there are 57000+ confirmed positives.  If we assume that means there are between 250k - 500k carriers in NYC, that still is only between 3% and 6% immunity.  Obviously that will go higher as time progresses but hopefully social distancing will limit that to, say, 10% at most.  10% won't be enough to dampen a second wave.  However I do think we will be much more prepared in terms of testing and procedures and the ventilator repository, so the impacts will be a bit less....hopefully.

Unfortunately until there is a vaccine, the economy in the crapper.  The economy can't grow when there's a virus in the midst.  

[Maestrobjwa]

3 hours ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Hi everyone,

This morning the first member of my extended family passed away due to COVID-19. We were pretty close. The grief is hard but I’m being strong for the rest of my family. Unfortunately, this may not be our only loss as two other members of the family are in the hospital and not doing well. 

Please keep us in your prayers, and I just have to say that while I know some are uncomfortable with a thread like this because of the politics and somber topic of discussion, it has personally helped me immensely because I’m able to talk and connect on this in a way I just can’t with family that struggle to talk about mortality and data/policy. A lot of us will know pain during this time. This helps ease my burden. 

Thank you.

Oh my goodness, man...I am so sorry to hear this. My folks and I will lift you and your family up in prayer--God bless. (What's your family name? Just so we can say more than "The WxWatcher007 family", haha)

[Amped]

8 minutes ago, Inverted_Trough said:

35 - 40% of the tests are coming back positive from NY/NJ.  That doesn't mean 35% of the population has the virus.  For the most part, only symptomatic people are getting tested.  Unless we randomly test people throughout NY/NJ, we have no idea what the true infection percentage in the population is.

Generally, the rule of thumb is that there are about 5 to 10 times as many actual COVID carriers than what is confirmed by testing.  So if we're looking at NYC, there are 57000+ confirmed positives.  If we assume that means there are between 250k - 500k carriers in NYC, that still is only between 3% and 6% immunity.  Obviously that will go higher as time progresses but hopefully social distancing will limit that to, say, 10% at most.  10% won't be enough to dampen a second wave.  However I do think we will be much more prepared in terms of testing and procedures and the ventilator repository, so the impacts will be a bit less....hopefully.

Unfortunately until there is a vaccine, the economy in the crapper.  The economy can't grow when there's a virus in the midst.  

Stay away from NYC/NJ unless you've already had the virus.

[showmethesnow]

10 minutes ago, Inverted_Trough said:

35 - 40% of the tests are coming back positive from NY/NJ.  That doesn't mean 35% of the population has the virus.  For the most part, only symptomatic people are getting tested.  Unless we randomly test people throughout NY/NJ, we have no idea what the true infection percentage in the population is.

Generally, the rule of thumb is that there are about 5 to 10 times as many actual COVID carriers than what is confirmed by testing.  So if we're looking at NYC, there are 57000+ confirmed positives.  If we assume that means there are between 250k - 500k carriers in NYC, that still is only between 3% and 6% immunity.  Obviously that will go higher as time progresses but hopefully social distancing will limit that to, say, 10% at most.  10% won't be enough to dampen a second wave.  However I do think we will be much more prepared in terms of testing and procedures and the ventilator repository, so the impacts will be a bit less....hopefully.

Unfortunately until there is a vaccine, the economy in the crapper.  The economy can't grow when there's a virus in the midst.  

10% infection rate for NY? Are these thoughts yours or a studies? Last I saw, which was a week or so ago, were of projections from 25-40% infection rate nation wide. I'm sure they have since changed but to the degree you are predicting? Your projections to me sound like an extreme outlier especially when you are considering we are talking a major metropolitan area with high population density.

[showmethesnow]

21 minutes ago, Inverted_Trough said:

35 - 40% of the tests are coming back positive from NY/NJ.  That doesn't mean 35% of the population has the virus.  For the most part, only symptomatic people are getting tested.  Unless we randomly test people throughout NY/NJ, we have no idea what the true infection percentage in the population is.

Generally, the rule of thumb is that there are about 5 to 10 times as many actual COVID carriers than what is confirmed by testing.  So if we're looking at NYC, there are 57000+ confirmed positives.  If we assume that means there are between 250k - 500k carriers in NYC, that still is only between 3% and 6% immunity.  Obviously that will go higher as time progresses but hopefully social distancing will limit that to, say, 10% at most.  10% won't be enough to dampen a second wave.  However I do think we will be much more prepared in terms of testing and procedures and the ventilator repository, so the impacts will be a bit less....hopefully.

Unfortunately until there is a vaccine, the economy in the crapper.  The economy can't grow when there's a virus in the midst.  

Thought I would also mention that your projected 3-6% infection rate as of now would argue other wise as well when you consider peak is, I believe, still probably 1 1/2 to 2 weeks away. I forget the formula for the doubling of the infection so this will be somewhat vague but I believe on the front side of the curve approaching the peak we are looking at a doubling of the infection roughly every 2 to 3 days. If someone has a more accurate figure I would love to hear it.

[showmethesnow]

1 hour ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Yes, I think most of the mutations seen thus far have been trivial and not really affecting the severity of the virus or major characteristics. Just enough gene changes to be able to track infection zones. I know for example they tracked one of the strains on a cruise ship to the same genetic makeup from Washington state. So hopefully it remains 'stable' with only about 2 mutations per month. I think I read typical influenza undergoes about 8-10 mutations per month thus why there are different vaccines all the time. Hopefully one and done with covid19 irt vaccination.

Most of my knowledge when it comes to this subject comes from HS and College which is extremely outdated as well as some pieces here and there over the years. So keep that in mind with my following comment. From what I could decipher on one article/report these mutations are mostly occurring on a harmless fragment of the genome sequencing. But again, limited knowledge so I could have very well misinterpreted what I read.

[Inverted_Trough]

19 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

10% infection rate for NY? Are these thoughts yours or a studies? Last I saw, which was a week or so ago, were of projections from 25-40% infection rate nation wide. I'm sure they have since changed but to the degree you are predicting? Your projections to me sound like an extreme outlier especially when you are considering we are talking a major metropolitan area with high population density.

Certainly by the time this pandemic over - say, by the time we have a vaccine -- 25 to 40% of us will be infected by that time.  Perhaps even a little more.  But we are nowhere close to that right now, and we are certainly not going to reach a 40% infection rate in the next 10 days.  Especially with social distancing in place.  That's nonsense.

What data do you have that shows NYC will have a 35-40% infection rate?  Nobody knows what the infection rate is unless you randomly test a large sample from the population.  But if you use the assumptions that epidemiologists typically use, and you assume social distancing will be effective, then yes this first 'wave' will infect about 10% of the NYC population.  Nowhere near 35 to 40 that you're claiming.

[mappy]

Wanna drop a note for MD residents, lots of EOs by Hogan this week

here is the latest

I highly recommend following these two on twitter, they are part of Hogan’s communication team and have been great responding to questions in Twitter (I have asked quite a few!)

https://twitter.com/riccimike     
https://twitter.com/katadhall
 

[showmethesnow]

6 minutes ago, Inverted_Trough said:

Certainly by the time this pandemic over - say, by the time we have a vaccine -- 25 to 40% of us will be infected by that time.  Perhaps even a little more.  But we are nowhere close to that right now, and we are certainly not going to reach a 40% infection rate in the next 10 days.  Especially with social distancing in place.  That's nonsense.

What data do you have that shows NYC will have a 35-40% infection rate?  Nobody knows what the infection rate is unless you randomly test a large sample from the population.  But if you use the assumptions that epidemiologists typically use, and you assume social distancing will be effective, then yes this first 'wave' will infect about 10% of the NYC population.  Nowhere near 35 to 40 that you're claiming.

Where did anyone say NY would have an 40% infection rate within 10 days? I sure didn't. As far as your 10% prediction after the first wave, I guess we will see. To be honest I have said this before but I will say it again. I don't think we will ever now for certain the exact rate. We can probably model what it was to get a generally ball park figure but i have a feeling that will be the best we can do.

eta: And I didn't predict 35-40% infection rate for NY I just said I would not be surprised. Big difference there.

[Inverted_Trough]

2 hours ago, showmethesnow said:

As far as the cities I really cringe when I consider some of the infection rates we may actually see especially with what we are seeing within NY. If I hear some reports approaching 35-40+  I don't think I would be that surprised.

This is where I took your quote from about the 35 to 40 percent.  Honestly I think you just conflated the percentage of tests coming back positive (which is between 35-40 percent) with the overall infection rate of the population.  They are completely different things.

[showmethesnow]

14 minutes ago, Inverted_Trough said:

This is where I took your quote from about the 35 to 40 percent.  Honestly I think you just conflated the percentage of tests coming back positive (which is between 35-40 percent) with the overall infection rate of the population.  They are completely different things.

Again, this was not a prediction. I just said I would not be surprised. There is a big difference there. If you really need to nail me down I would probably go with a 25-35% rate at this time. But really there isn't enough information at this time

[TruthSeeker2020]

24 minutes ago, mappy said:

Wanna drop a note for MD residents, lots of EOs by Hogan this week

here is the latest

I highly recommend following these two on twitter, they are part of Hogan’s communication team and have been great responding to questions in Twitter (I have asked quite a few!)

https://twitter.com/riccimike     
https://twitter.com/katadhall
 

He is truly doing an amazing job in this dire situation.  

[TruthSeeker2020]

25 minutes ago, mappy said:

Wanna drop a note for MD residents, lots of EOs by Hogan this week

here is the latest

I highly recommend following these two on twitter, they are part of Hogan’s communication team and have been great responding to questions in Twitter (I have asked quite a few!)

https://twitter.com/riccimike     
https://twitter.com/katadhall
 

A lot of people from my side of town support their entire family with jobs in that have now completely vanished!  A lot of us cannot pay rent or mortgages.. it is great to know our governor has our back!

[Eskimo Joe]

On 4/2/2020 at 2:26 PM, supernovasky said:

New York City no longer accepting patients that are pulseless at the scene. 
 

https://www.newsmax.com/t/newsmax/article/961091?section=us&keywords=newyork-nyc-emt-virus&year=2020&month=04&date=02&id=961091&oref=www.reddit.com

 

On 4/2/2020 at 2:34 PM, PDIII said:

 

This was the most lol of the lol post that I have lol'd at!!! I havent even read the article.. but this MSM Alarmism at it best!

Its real see #2

 

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

3 hours ago, showmethesnow said:

Really was conflicted on whether I wanted to add this or not to the above post. People are scared enough as it is and this is just another worry to pile on the crap heap. But after reflecting on it for a few minutes I thought it was better to be educated to the possibilities as opposed to being caught totally flat footed. One thing we have to consider is the possibility of a mutation. We see that and all bets are off. Don't know enough to know if this would put us back to square one with dealing with this virus but it sure would be a hell of a setback. That said, and I am going by what I have read from the professionals who make a living off these studies, this is an extremely stable virus with a very low mutation rate. Odds are strongly against this scenario even playing out.

 

3 hours ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Yes, I think most of the mutations seen thus far have been trivial and not really affecting the severity of the virus or major characteristics. Just enough gene changes to be able to track infection zones. I know for example they tracked one of the strains on a cruise ship to the same genetic makeup from Washington state. So hopefully it remains 'stable' with only about 2 mutations per month. I think I read typical influenza undergoes about 8-10 mutations per month thus why there are different vaccines all the time. Hopefully one and done with covid19 irt vaccination.

Well, I hope the original post I put up didn't sound overly alarmist or anything like that.  I was just thinking historically what happened from the 1918 flu, where after the original wave it got bad again the next fall.  Obviously this virus isn't the same and conditions/medical science, etc. are different as well.  At any rate, I have heard what both of you say that thus far this virus apparently hasn't shown a tendency to mutate very much (if at all, really?).  So yeah, that gives hope of a "one and done" vaccine, once there is a vaccine.  The other thing here is, I've heard differing things on how long one's immunity lasts, which is another factor...though again, I don't think anyone knows anything definitive on that or if it's even been looked into (probably way too early right now to know for sure).

[Kmlwx]

2 hours ago, Amped said:

Stay away from NYC/NJ unless you've already had the virus.

You can get it again. 

[BristowWx]

1 minute ago, Kmlwx said:

You can get it again. 

But you’ll probably have some level of immunity 

[jaydreb]

14 minutes ago, Kmlwx said:

You can get it again. 

Probably not anytime soon.

https://www.businessinsider.com/coronavirus-fauci-those-who-recover-will-be-immune-2020-3

[NorthArlington101]

14 minutes ago, Kmlwx said:

You can get it again. 

Unsure, but I had thought that the dominant thought at the moment suggested that you probably can't actually get it twice and that people were simply being released too early. I think they've tightened up standards and now say you need two negative results separated by 24 hours... haven't heard of a supposed reinfection in awhile.

[TruthSeeker2020]

I just went to the doctors to get some prescriptions refilled and they wouldnt even let me in the front door.. the receptionist came up and asked me what my name was, who my doctor was and what prescription I needed and told me that they would call it in.  They had a big sign on the door:

1- we cannot test you for COVID-19

2- there are no known treatments for COVID-19

3- most cases are mild.  If you think you have a mild case, go home and take OTC cold medications like Alkaseltzer Cold

Potomac Physicians in Woodlawn...

[ErinInTheSky]

1315 deaths and climbing today. It's going to be bad.

[TruthSeeker2020]

18 minutes ago, supernovasky said:

1315 deaths and climbing today. It's going to be bad.

In US or worldwide?

[ErinInTheSky]

4 minutes ago, TruthSeeker2020 said:

In US or worldwide?

US. Going to be the deadliest day by far.

 

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/