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April Discobs 2020


George BM
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Just now, losetoa6 said:

Welcome to the rainstorm buddy...its only been raining here for 9 HOURS lol.

Moving parallel to the front. Slowww progression.

The wind has been the story here. Not a fan, but it was impressive in the warm sector ahead of the front. Lots of crap to clean up over the next couple days.

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Mount Holly says-

Heaviest rain for most of the region should be through late this afternoon through the first half of this evening as the plume moves through ahead of the front. It hasn`t been moving very fast but as shortwave energy moves up the coast by the 21-0z time frame this should help the band become more progressive and kick it eastward through this evening. The heaviest rain should then be mostly east of the forecast area by the overnight period as the cold front moves through. We are still forecasting rain amounts mainly in the 1.5 to 2.5 inch range but since the rain has been a bit slower to move in than forecast and may move out a bit quicker this evening this could potentially cut amounts down a bit.

Yup. as I just said. The  heavier amounts will likely not verify in eastern areas.

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Wasn't expecting to see sun on the western horizon already.

Huge over-performer with the wind. Major under-performer with the rain.

0.85" with a forecast of 2 inches+

That said I really didn't need the rain here. 5.6" is plenty for the month, following a wet March. Wont be able to buy a third of these amounts by July.

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Just now, C.A.P.E. said:

Wasn't expecting to see sun on the western horizon already.

Huge over-performer with the wind. Major under-performer with the rain.

0.85" with a forecast of 2 inches+

That said I really didn't need the rain here. 5.6" is plenty for the month, following a wet March. Wont be able to buy a third of these amounts by July.

^^^truth^^^

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Too bad this isn't January :axe:  afternoon AFD from LWX 

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
The active jet stream pattern that has been observed over the
last few weeks is likely to continue with a positive PNA and
negative NAO; resulting in continue ridging out west and slight
toughing over the eastern CONUS. A weak upper-level shortwave
will approach the region on Sunday , inducing showery periods
especially during the afternoon and continuing overnight. While
there are timing differences amongst model guidance, ensemble
members agree on showery activity continuing through early
Monday morning. Drying conditions are likely to ensue by midday
Monday as the shortwave moves offshore and weak high pressure
moves overhead. Thereafter, models diverge on a second, and more
potent low pressure system that will transverse eastward out of
the Central Plains by mid-week. The GFS is more progressive
with this system and brings it into our area Tuesday afternoon,
while the ECMWF is slower; indicating a Wednesday afternoon
arrival. Interesting to note, that the GEFS is more in-line with
the ECMWF. So while confidence in timing remains low at this
time, feel more inclined to lean more towards the ECMWF solution
for now. Also, the track of the system will still need to be
determined. As it stands now, it appears that the overall track
of the low will be more impactful to our south in terms of
heavier QPF amounts and potential convective weather, while our
area results in lighter shower activity. Given the timeframe,
forecast confidence remains low at this time. In terms of
temperature, seasonable temperatures are likely during the
Sunday/Monday timeframe, before below normal temperatures return
by the middle of next week.

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