RogueWaves Posted August 29, 2020 Share Posted August 29, 2020 10 minutes ago, Kitchener poster said: So far we haven’t had one drop of rain. We’ve been under a special weather advisory all day for heavy rainfall. Speaking with locals in my immediate community- this isn’t good. Confidence in forecasts is at an all time low. At this point I do think it’s in our best interest to get hammered by a severe (but not life threatening) storm. There is a serious “I’ll now believe when I see it” mentality. There could be an EF 5 tornado barrelling down on us and our population of 500K wouldn’t believe it. We’ve had tornado warnings, severe storm warnings, high rainfall advisories....but all the common folk see is....clear skies. We had that here a few years back. I watched several 80% T-storm likely forecasts in a row just go "poof Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kitchener poster Posted August 29, 2020 Share Posted August 29, 2020 https://mobile.twitter.com/StormhunterTWN/status/1299492806105477120 Right around the 1:00 mark. “I’m beginning to doubt the models have a good handle on this”. When the minimum bar for precipitation is >1.0” and you don’t see a single drop....yeah. I’d agree. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torchageddon Posted August 29, 2020 Share Posted August 29, 2020 1 hour ago, Kitchener poster said: So far we haven’t had one drop of rain. We’ve been under a special weather advisory all day for heavy rainfall. Speaking with locals in my immediate community- this isn’t good. Confidence in forecasts is at an all time low. At this point I do think it’s in our best interest to get hammered by a severe (but not life threatening) storm. There is a serious “I’ll now believe when I see it” mentality. There could be an EF 5 tornado barrelling down on us and our population of 500K wouldn’t believe it. We’ve had tornado warnings, severe storm warnings, high rainfall advisories....but all the common folk see is....clear skies. I've encountered a few peeps who agree with me that forecasts are still poor even going over 4 years now. Its even worse now probably due to the lack of obs from aircraft and such. The complacency in K-W will mean if there is ever a severe tornado like that its not going to be pretty injury and death toll wise. I'm getting my moderate sort-of rain currently. I find it strange that on GRLevel 3 the returns are pretty modest but then on TWN radar (which is beyond terrible and has been all but neglected) it shows heavy thunderstorms. I'm getting light rain mostly, surprisingly. EDIT: I'm getting clocked by the heaviest rains I've had this year, just continuous with some rumbles of thunder. Strange how the radar almost is ahead of reality as it was showing heavy returns and light to no rain, but then as the line sunk south I'm still getting drenched. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kitchener poster Posted August 29, 2020 Share Posted August 29, 2020 0.00” running the backyard irrigation. I’m not saying we need to put somebody in front of congress....but the forecast of 1.2-2.4” wasn’t close. The rain never got close. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torchageddon Posted August 29, 2020 Share Posted August 29, 2020 4 hours ago, Kitchener poster said: 0.00” running the backyard irrigation. I’m not saying we need to put somebody in front of congress....but the forecast of 1.2-2.4” wasn’t close. The rain never got close. I'm surprised you didn't get a drop from that, I probably got 60-80mm of rain. Lambton and Essex had 130 mm from earlier in the day. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kitchener poster Posted August 29, 2020 Share Posted August 29, 2020 58 minutes ago, Torchageddon said: I'm surprised you didn't get a drop from that, I probably got 60-80mm of rain. Lambton and Essex had 130 mm from earlier in the day. I wish there was a high resolution precipitation total map for Ontario. I think Kitchener thru Guelph were the only places that got completely shut out. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beavis1729 Posted August 29, 2020 Share Posted August 29, 2020 DFW hit 105 today, with a max HI of 115. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kitchener poster Posted August 30, 2020 Share Posted August 30, 2020 Beautiful little unexpected rain shower this evening. I poured myself a scotch to really soak it in. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted August 30, 2020 Share Posted August 30, 2020 About 3 inches of rain over the last few days. Hopefully the sprinkler season has ended, but I doubt it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted August 30, 2020 Share Posted August 30, 2020 2 hours ago, Kitchener poster said: Beautiful little unexpected rain shower this evening. I poured myself a scotch to really soak it in. I always love it when the sun shines under the cloud deck at sunset. Looking good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bowtie` Posted August 30, 2020 Share Posted August 30, 2020 2 hours ago, Jonger said: I always love it when the sun shines under the cloud deck at sunset. Looking good. Me three... 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RogueWaves Posted August 30, 2020 Share Posted August 30, 2020 On 8/29/2020 at 7:21 AM, Kitchener poster said: 0.00” running the backyard irrigation. I’m not saying we need to put somebody in front of congress....but the forecast of 1.2-2.4” wasn’t close. The rain never got close. On 8/29/2020 at 12:17 PM, Torchageddon said: I'm surprised you didn't get a drop from that, I probably got 60-80mm of rain. Lambton and Essex had 130 mm from earlier in the day. That is NUTS! Even i scored 0.8-1.0" based on reports/radar. Won't end dryness but sure better than another whiff Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
luckyweather Posted August 30, 2020 Share Posted August 30, 2020 I just bought a snow gun. It needs 28 degrees to make snow. Hope I didn’t curse any chances at early season cold. https://backyardsnowstorm.com/store/Single-Train-Package-p111633528 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted August 31, 2020 Share Posted August 31, 2020 With today being exactly 2 months until Halloween, and coming off of the snow on Halloween 2019, I looked up some October snow stats for Chicago. There have never been back to back Octobers, let alone Halloweens, with measurable snowfall in Chicago. The probability of measurable snow in a given October is relatively low, but you would think the back to back thing would have happened at some point. There have been a couple instances of measurable October snow 2 years apart. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted September 1, 2020 Share Posted September 1, 2020 6 hours ago, Hoosier said: With today being exactly 2 months until Halloween, and coming off of the snow on Halloween 2019, I looked up some October snow stats for Chicago. There have never been back to back Octobers, let alone Halloweens, with measurable snowfall in Chicago. The probability of measurable snow in a given October is relatively low, but you would think the back to back thing would have happened at some point. There have been a couple instances of measurable October snow 2 years apart. Good I want no snow until late November, those winters where it holds off until then tend to be good. So bring on 70s for October. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beavis1729 Posted September 2, 2020 Share Posted September 2, 2020 61-day streak of consecutive 100+ days ended today in Las Vegas. 2nd longest streak on record. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kitchener poster Posted September 2, 2020 Share Posted September 2, 2020 This whole weather system is going to miss us. I love being in close proximity of weather alerts every other day though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bowtie` Posted September 2, 2020 Share Posted September 2, 2020 57 minutes ago, beavis1729 said: 61-day streak of consecutive 100+ days ended today in Las Vegas. 2nd longest streak on record. I bet their grass is greener than Kitchener's also. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted September 2, 2020 Share Posted September 2, 2020 44 minutes ago, bowtie` said: I bet their grass is greener than Kitchener's also. I wonder if Vegas will outsnow Kitchener this winter. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RogueWaves Posted September 2, 2020 Share Posted September 2, 2020 On 8/30/2020 at 3:26 PM, RogueWaves said: That is NUTS! Even i scored 0.8-1.0" based on reports/radar. Won't end dryness but sure better than another whiff Another 1/2"+ since Tue evening. 69F and steady drizzle attm. Calling dry conditions on the surface ended. However, yesterday I passed a local pond that I was shocked to see dried up. It normally has 12-18" of standing water and you will often see a Blue Heron stalking frogs there. Its definitely been a dry stretch combined with enough heat to make hostile growing conditions. Glad its ending! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted September 2, 2020 Share Posted September 2, 2020 11 hours ago, Kitchener poster said: This whole weather system is going to miss us. I love being in close proximity of weather alerts every other day though. Rained pretty good last night. As per radar, Kitchener was in the heaviest bands as compared to surrounding areas. Unless your house has a dome and it completely missed your backyard. The thunderstorm ~2am last night woke me up. As of 2am, YYZ recorded 0.4" (10.4mm). Not sure if more fell afterwards but I wouldn't suspect anything more than 0.2" if it did. Still better than last weekend’s shitshow where it rained everywhere in the entire province expect Kitchener and Toronto. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kitchener poster Posted September 2, 2020 Share Posted September 2, 2020 5 hours ago, Snowstorms said: Rained pretty good last night. As per radar, Kitchener was in the heaviest bands as compared to surrounding areas. Unless your house has a dome and it completely missed your backyard. The thunderstorm ~2am last night woke me up. As of 2am, YYZ recorded 0.4" (10.4mm). Not sure if more fell afterwards but I wouldn't suspect anything more than 0.2" if it did. Still better than last weekend’s shitshow where it rained everywhere in the entire province expect Kitchener and Toronto. It did and it was great. I was so demoralized that I didn’t put out my rain gauge but I think we got about a half inch. Also had 2-3 good rain showers throughout the day. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kitchener poster Posted September 4, 2020 Share Posted September 4, 2020 She got close! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted September 4, 2020 Share Posted September 4, 2020 Hit up 2 more high peaks this past weekend! Up to 15/46 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted September 4, 2020 Share Posted September 4, 2020 2 hours ago, Kitchener poster said: She got close! Got another 0.4" with this. Nothing impressive lol. Models have a more typical late Fall type of system next week that could bring widespread rain if it comes to fruition. Will be monitoring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted September 7, 2020 Share Posted September 7, 2020 Anyone have any early thoughts on winter? Mine is that if you like long lasting snowcover retention, it won't be a good one in about 80% of the subforum. That being said, I forsee a good battle zone cutting through our sub at various times, which could feature rather prolific snow/ice events. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted September 7, 2020 Share Posted September 7, 2020 44 minutes ago, Hoosier said: Anyone have any early thoughts on winter? Mine is that if you like long lasting snowcover retention, it won't be a good one in about 80% of the subforum. That being said, I forsee a good battle zone cutting through our sub at various times, which could feature rather prolific snow/ice events. Looking at just the weekly ENSO values and subsurface anomalies, this years La Nina is on par with 2007. 2010 was already a moderate to strong La Nina by this time and it peaked early. Models seem to be peaking this years La Nina in the winter, similar to 2007. The PDO has gone negative again. A -PDO may help drive more ridging around the Aleutians, which is a bit to far west of the EPO domain, but if at times that ridge can push eastward we can get some nice decent cold shots our way. Otherwise, most of the real arctic air would be confined over the Plains/Prairies. As you said, I like the idea of our sub-forum being the battle ground between cold and warm. I'd expect an earlier start which is more typical with Nina's. I do think this winter will end up colder than 2007-08 though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted September 7, 2020 Share Posted September 7, 2020 2 hours ago, Hoosier said: Anyone have any early thoughts on winter? Mine is that if you like long lasting snowcover retention, it won't be a good one in about 80% of the subforum. That being said, I forsee a good battle zone cutting through our sub at various times, which could feature rather prolific snow/ice events. I'm on bored with this idea as well. I'd love to start a Winter thread but I did not know if you guys thought it was too soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted September 7, 2020 Share Posted September 7, 2020 1 hour ago, Snowstorms said: Looking at just the weekly ENSO values and subsurface anomalies, this years La Nina is on par with 2007. 2010 was already a moderate to strong La Nina by this time and it peaked early. Models seem to be peaking this years La Nina in the winter, similar to 2007. The PDO has gone negative again. A -PDO may help drive more ridging around the Aleutians, which is a bit to far west of the EPO domain, but if at times that ridge can push eastward we can get some nice decent cold shots our way. Otherwise, most of the real arctic air would be confined over the Plains/Prairies. As you said, I like the idea of our sub-forum being the battle ground between cold and warm. I'd expect an earlier start which is more typical with Nina's. I do think this winter will end up colder than 2007-08 though. 2007-08 was a prolific snow year in southeast Michigan but we were never able to build-up a snowpack due to those thaws. The battle ground that hoosier spoke of. Season snow fall finished it 71.7" for Detroit, 78.2" here, and near 100" in parts of the northern suburbs. Yet snowpack never exceeded a foot at any time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted September 7, 2020 Share Posted September 7, 2020 1 hour ago, michsnowfreak said: 2007-08 was a prolific snow year in southeast Michigan but we were never able to build-up a snowpack due to those thaws. The battle ground that hoosier spoke of. Season snow fall finished it 71.7" for Detroit, 78.2" here, and near 100" in parts of the northern suburbs. Yet snowpack never exceeded a foot at any time. Sounds like the best winter ever in my books. I love action and that is consistent action to say the least. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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