uncle W Posted April 12, 2020 Share Posted April 12, 2020 28 minutes ago, doncat said: The woods that have surrounded my station for 50 years are scheduled for development sometime in the future...wonder if that will affect my temp readings. I've been lucky that that privately owned parcel was empty for so long. it might a little depending on what they build there...you are still pretty close to open land... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted April 12, 2020 Share Posted April 12, 2020 1 hour ago, NJwx85 said: Excited about this threat, not sure if it beats March 2010 locally. Had almost 5” of rain here and numerous gusts >50mph. Growing season much further along now, could see more downed branches/trees if those 60-70+ gusts verify. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ace Posted April 12, 2020 Share Posted April 12, 2020 Wind gusts products tend to be mostly useless, but this is probably a decent portrayal by the 12z NAM of what we might see tomorrow . NAM tends to be a bit too inverted while the GFS is too mixed most of the time, so the below is a good conservative portrayal of what the top gusts we'll see tomorrow with a good chance of seeing numbers a bit higher than advertised here 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted April 12, 2020 Share Posted April 12, 2020 12z NAM with a convective damaging wind threat here tomorrow after steady rain moves out early afternoon. Not sure if we get enough clearing for Northern areas with warm front hung up around I-87. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted April 12, 2020 Share Posted April 12, 2020 1 hour ago, qg_omega said: Wasn’t March 2010 a coastal where the inversion broke? It was a Dec 1992 repeat more or less. The gradient was just that strong. I’m not sure we effectively mixed down max winds from aloft in that scenario given time of year and direction of wind. This event like that one the strongest winds should be near the coast but the high gusts will probably be more sporadic depending how effectively they mix down. This event is more similar to an 11/11/95 or 10/14/03. Both of those setups were different in regards to proximity of the surface lows/upper trof but they both had crazy 850 S’ly winds with areas gusting 50-70. The 2003 event was somewhat short duration though. This will be a good 6-12 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted April 12, 2020 Share Posted April 12, 2020 Just now, SnowGoose69 said: It was a Dec 1992 repeat more or less. The gradient was just that strong. I’m not sure we effectively mixed down max winds from aloft in that scenario given time of year and direction of wind. This event like that one the strongest winds should be near the coast but the high gusts will probably be more sporadic depending how effectively they mix down. This event is more similar to an 11/11/95 or 10/14/03. Both of those setups were different in regards to proximity of the surface lows/upper trof but they both had crazy 850 winds S winds with areas gusting 50-70. The 2003 event was somewhat short duration though. This will be a good 6-12 hours Usually best winds in this situation is after the morning rains but before the low topped line Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted April 12, 2020 Share Posted April 12, 2020 In other news the Euro/EPS is shutting down the -EPO in the longer range, if so, get ready for another torch.... 4 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted April 12, 2020 Share Posted April 12, 2020 2 hours ago, uncle W said: 36 here for two days in a row...ten lower than Central Park... we were in the mid 30s too and I'm like 4 miles from the queens border lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted April 12, 2020 Share Posted April 12, 2020 59 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: It was a Dec 1992 repeat more or less. The gradient was just that strong. I’m not sure we effectively mixed down max winds from aloft in that scenario given time of year and direction of wind. This event like that one the strongest winds should be near the coast but the high gusts will probably be more sporadic depending how effectively they mix down. This event is more similar to an 11/11/95 or 10/14/03. Both of those setups were different in regards to proximity of the surface lows/upper trof but they both had crazy 850 S’ly winds with areas gusting 50-70. The 2003 event was somewhat short duration though. This will be a good 6-12 hours Dec 1992 was a three day historic storm with snow here on the back end (but up to 3 feet of snow inland). That will be my all time coastal storm that wasn't all snow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted April 12, 2020 Share Posted April 12, 2020 2 hours ago, qg_omega said: Wasn’t March 2010 a coastal where the inversion broke? yes windier here on the south shore than it was on the north shore, we had hurricane force wind gusts here close to 80. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted April 12, 2020 Share Posted April 12, 2020 High Wind Warning issued here now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted April 12, 2020 Share Posted April 12, 2020 3 minutes ago, Rtd208 said: High Wind Warning issued here now. They didn't back off. Coastal areas in warning now 60-70mph gusts and 50-60mph inland with stronger winds possible in storms. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted April 12, 2020 Share Posted April 12, 2020 1 hour ago, Brian5671 said: In other news the Euro/EPS is shutting down the -EPO in the longer range, if so, get ready for another torch.... Even the last 2 weeks when we’ve had these trofs and cold pushes the source region of the air hasn’t been great so despite it looking cold if you just glanced at the upper air pattern or thicknesses when you looked at the 850s it wasn’t really a very cold air mass 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted April 12, 2020 Share Posted April 12, 2020 1 hour ago, qg_omega said: Usually best winds in this situation is after the morning rains but before the low topped line Fully expect that tomorrow. 11/11/95 blew so much sand off the beaches and on the ocean parkway they used snow plows to plow the sand off the road. I’m looking forward to a drive tomorrow. people are going to loose their minds if there are long term power outages from this. Luckily we are just before leaf out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uofmiami Posted April 12, 2020 Share Posted April 12, 2020 17 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said: Fully expect that tomorrow. 11/11/95 blew so much sand off the beaches and on the ocean parkway they used snow plows to plow the sand off the road. I’m looking forward to a drive tomorrow. people are going to loose their minds if there are long term power outages from this. Luckily we are just before leaf out I'm sure a lot more people have generators now than pre-Sandy days, so the impact of power outages isn't as bad overall as it use to be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted April 12, 2020 Share Posted April 12, 2020 20 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said: Fully expect that tomorrow. 11/11/95 blew so much sand off the beaches and on the ocean parkway they used snow plows to plow the sand off the road. I’m looking forward to a drive tomorrow. people are going to loose their minds if there are long term power outages from this. Luckily we are just before leaf out There’s numerous ways this could enhance the COVID issue. It could force the stores to be obliterated again if everyone’s food spoils, it could force people to move into friends or family’s homes if they lose power, and power crews could accelerate the virus spread by working together 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JackMalarchey Posted April 12, 2020 Share Posted April 12, 2020 1 minute ago, SnowGoose69 said: There’s numerous ways this could enhance the COVID issue. It could force the stores to be obliterated again if everyone’s food spoils, it could force people to move into friends or family’s homes if they lose power, and power crews could accelerate the virus spread by working together I highly doubt any of this happens. Praying it doesn’t! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted April 12, 2020 Share Posted April 12, 2020 Unless we mix the winds down during convection, I don’t see this being anymore then a advisory event 1 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted April 12, 2020 Share Posted April 12, 2020 31 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Unless we mix the winds down during convection, I don’t see this being anymore then a advisory event going against the models ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted April 12, 2020 Share Posted April 12, 2020 36 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Unless we mix the winds down during convection, I don’t see this being anymore then a advisory event For NJ yes, for LI no. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted April 12, 2020 Share Posted April 12, 2020 The Euro and the GFS MOS both have sustained winds near the coast around 50 mph. So the gradient alone would produce gusts from 60-70 mph. The Euro has a low topped convection which could mix down 70+. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JackMalarchey Posted April 12, 2020 Share Posted April 12, 2020 Nam shows some snow for us granted it’s white rain but that would make some people happy here for next week after this rainstorm. 1 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted April 12, 2020 Share Posted April 12, 2020 2 hours ago, Allsnow said: Unless we mix the winds down during convection, I don’t see this being anymore then a advisory event With a near 6SD jet? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted April 12, 2020 Share Posted April 12, 2020 Upton went with a High wind warning for most 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ace Posted April 12, 2020 Share Posted April 12, 2020 The NAM has trended to a more defined and progressive shortwave aiming it right at us. As a result it is now showing a more condensed line/structure instead of the more diffuse activity it was showing earlier. 3 run change shown below. We'll see how things shift, but this would serve to have a large portion of the area achieve HWW criteria winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted April 12, 2020 Share Posted April 12, 2020 Between about 8a-4p tomorrow is going to be crazy around here especially if we can get some of those higher winds to mix down. I expect the power companies and emergency services to be very busy. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted April 12, 2020 Share Posted April 12, 2020 The record GOM SST’s are also boosting the energy available to this system. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted April 12, 2020 Share Posted April 12, 2020 I don't see much of an inversion tomorrow. We get well into the 60s with dews of 60+ It's mid April not Feb/March. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lee59 Posted April 12, 2020 Share Posted April 12, 2020 4 hours ago, LibertyBell said: we were in the mid 30s too and I'm like 4 miles from the queens border lol Went to 32 degrees here this morning, with frost. Tomorrow looks real interesting. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted April 12, 2020 Share Posted April 12, 2020 JB says 100mph wind gusts on LI. Snow for Tues night? It first appeared two weeks ago for around the 16th., then disappeared and reappeared on some runs. What a March we could have had. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now