Barman49 Posted April 12, 2020 Share Posted April 12, 2020 Looks like Euro map except lower qpf in all areas. Sent from my GM1925 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Barman49 Posted April 12, 2020 Share Posted April 12, 2020 NAM really upped qpf from last run. Close to Euro. Sent from my GM1925 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted April 12, 2020 Share Posted April 12, 2020 2 minutes ago, Barman49 said: NAM really upped qpf from last run. Close to Euro. Sent from my GM1925 using Tapatalk Not the story, how are Winds 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Barman49 Posted April 12, 2020 Share Posted April 12, 2020 Not the story, how are WindsAgree. Sent from my GM1925 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted April 12, 2020 Share Posted April 12, 2020 5 minutes ago, qg_omega said: Not the story, how are Winds Gusts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted April 12, 2020 Share Posted April 12, 2020 Hi res NAM has insane winds at 850 mb, if we can mix some of these down with heavier precipitation it will be a high end wind event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dWave Posted April 12, 2020 Share Posted April 12, 2020 6 hours ago, weathermedic said: High wind watch just posted for the area for Monday. Winds can gust up to 70mph. Thats a problem for the field hospitals, like in Central Park. NWS implies concern over this 947 PM EDT Sat Apr 11 2020 ... HIGH WIND WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON... * WHAT, South winds 30 to 40 mph with gusts up to 70 mph possible. * WHERE, Portions of northeastern New Jersey, southern Connecticut and southeastern New York, including New York City. * WHEN, From Monday morning through Monday afternoon. * IMPACTS, Damaging winds could blow down trees and power lines. Even sturdy and well secured tent structures could be damaged. Widespread power outages are possible. Travel could be difficult, especially for high profile vehicles. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Monitor the latest forecasts and warnings for updates on this situation. Fasten loose objects or shelter objects in a safe location prior to the onset of winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted April 12, 2020 Share Posted April 12, 2020 1 hour ago, MJO812 said: Gusts Wow widespread 55+ gusts even away from coast. Hurricane force gusts at coasts and most of LI. Latest GFS has 50-55mph sustained winds on LI and near the city. Really hope that's a joke. Above the surface it's like 90-100kts and some of that could mix down with convective elements in play. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted April 12, 2020 Share Posted April 12, 2020 1) model wind gust output is a joke; 2) I stockpiled about 100 gals of gas for my generator right before the shutdown started, so bring it on! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SRRTA22 Posted April 12, 2020 Share Posted April 12, 2020 3k NAM soundings are concerning for PA south into the Mid Atl. Nice backing of the winds, with substantial amount of SFC cape. High moisture as well as dews climb into the mid 60s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted April 12, 2020 Share Posted April 12, 2020 The SPC actually scaled back the slight risk for portions of NJ and placed them in a marginal risk for now. We will see if things get bumped back further north in later outlooks. https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk.html 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted April 12, 2020 Share Posted April 12, 2020 11 minutes ago, Rtd208 said: The SPC actually scaled back the slight risk for portions of NJ and placed them in a marginal risk for now. We will see if things get bumped back further north in later outlooks. https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk.html The problem is with the rain cooled air, would take some effort for air mass recovery later in the day. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted April 12, 2020 Share Posted April 12, 2020 The next 8 days are averaging 51.5degs., or 2degs. BN. Month to date is +2.0[51.7]. Should be about +0.3[51.5] by the 20th. 46* here at 6am. 52* by 9am. 56* by 5pm. 61* at 6pm! The next 17 days are averaging 54.5 or about 0.50 BN. Should be slightly AN by the 29th with this. EURO has 3" and 30mph, GFS/CMC have about 1.5" and the GFS has 40mph for tomorrow. These are the peak average winds, not the Gusts. Add about 10mph for JFK. 1 Mon 04/13 03Z 58 ° 59 ° 57 ° 48 ° SSW 16 SSW 45 SW 36 0.00 0.00 554 570 -16 ° 8 ° 10 ° 1020 100 % 5 ° 24 Mon 04/13 06Z 56 ° 59 ° 56 ° 49 ° S 16 SSW 47 SSW 51 0.02 0.00 555 569 -14 ° 7 ° 10 ° 1017 100 % 2 ° 27 Mon 04/13 09Z 56 ° 57 ° 56 ° 51 ° S 20 S 49 SSW 51 0.04 0.00 557 568 -13 ° 8 ° 9 ° 1013 100 % 7 ° 30 Mon 04/13 12Z 55 ° 57 ° 55 ° 52 ° SSE 27 S 65 S 72 0.29 0.00 559 567 -11 ° 8 ° 10 ° 1009 100 % 7 ° 33 Mon 04/13 15Z 58 ° 58 ° 55 ° 53 ° S 31 S 74 SSW 83 0.56 0.00 562 565 -12 ° 10 ° 12 ° 1004 100 % 9 ° 36 Mon 04/13 18Z 62 ° 62 ° 55 ° 55 ° S 34 SSW 76 SSW 87 0.11 0.00 561 560 -12 ° 10 ° 14 ° 999 100 % 10 ° 39 Mon 04/13 21Z 67 ° 67 ° 62 ° 48 ° SW 25 WSW 58 WSW 67 0.24 0.04 560 560 -14 ° 9 ° 16 ° 1000 84 % 5 ° 42 Tue 04/14 00Z 61 ° 68 ° 60 ° 44 ° WSW 20 WSW 49 WSW 56 0.00 0.00 556 562 -16 ° 5 ° 11 ° 1007 60 % 1 ° 45 Remember my nCV19 post weeks ago warning of those tent hospitals being blown away in these type of events? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted April 12, 2020 Share Posted April 12, 2020 It looks like there was an error with the original SPC Day 2 outlook map. Here is the amended map issued about an hour later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted April 12, 2020 Share Posted April 12, 2020 15 hours ago, bluewave said: Pretty impressive to see the NAM wind gust guidance come in at 70 mph or higher. Is this going to be like another March 2010?! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted April 12, 2020 Share Posted April 12, 2020 14 hours ago, Rtd208 said: 1-2" rainfall amounts are more reasonable IMO. that 3.3" hot spot is right near my other house, but looks like my winds here on the south shore will be a lot higher? hurricane force wind gusts here? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted April 12, 2020 Share Posted April 12, 2020 10 hours ago, MJO812 said: that looks like hurricane force wind gusts for all of long island.....might be like March 2010! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted April 12, 2020 Share Posted April 12, 2020 When the Euro indicates sustained winds at the coast near 50 mph, it’s not a stretch to see peak gusts of 70 mph or greater. The LLJ maxes out near +6 SD. Synoptic wind gusts would be 60-70 mph and any convective enhancement 70+. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maureen Posted April 12, 2020 Share Posted April 12, 2020 The last thing first responders, hospitals, and pretty much the rest of us need are power outages, downed trees, etc. I hope against hope this isn’t as bad as it seems it might be. 7 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted April 12, 2020 Share Posted April 12, 2020 Big time damage if this verifies. In the meantime, Happy Easter to those that celebrate-gorgeous morning out there-the April sun is strong 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted April 12, 2020 Share Posted April 12, 2020 6 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: Big time damage if this verifies. In the meantime, Happy Easter to those that celebrate-gorgeous morning out there-the April sun is strong Moon was gorgeous last night! Cold too lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted April 12, 2020 Share Posted April 12, 2020 40 minutes ago, bluewave said: When the Euro indicates sustained winds at the coast near 50 mph, it’s not a stretch to see peak gusts of 70 mph or greater. The LLJ maxes out near +6 SD. Synoptic wind gusts would be 60-70 mph and any convective enhancement 70+. Wow near 6 SD into Long Island Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted April 12, 2020 Share Posted April 12, 2020 Holy shiznits Batkids this could be a real mess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted April 12, 2020 Share Posted April 12, 2020 Just missed a freeze this am at 33°...Warmimg up nicely today...Happy Easter. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted April 12, 2020 Share Posted April 12, 2020 Excited about this threat, not sure if it beats March 2010 locally. Had almost 5” of rain here and numerous gusts >50mph. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted April 12, 2020 Share Posted April 12, 2020 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted April 12, 2020 Share Posted April 12, 2020 1 hour ago, LibertyBell said: that looks like hurricane force wind gusts for all of long island.....might be like March 2010! Wasn’t March 2010 a coastal where the inversion broke? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted April 12, 2020 Share Posted April 12, 2020 How’s 12z NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted April 12, 2020 Share Posted April 12, 2020 27 minutes ago, doncat said: Just missed a freeze this am at 33°...Warmimg up nicely today...Happy Easter. 36 here for two days in a row...ten lower than Central Park... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted April 12, 2020 Share Posted April 12, 2020 7 minutes ago, uncle W said: 36 here for two days in a row...ten lower than Central Park... The woods that have surrounded my station for 50 years are scheduled for development sometime in the future...wonder if that will affect my temp readings. I've been lucky that that privately owned parcel was empty for so long. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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