doncat Posted April 29, 2020 Share Posted April 29, 2020 9 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: But euro was 3"+ Yes I just took a look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted April 29, 2020 Share Posted April 29, 2020 the ukmet is like the euro 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted April 29, 2020 Share Posted April 29, 2020 56 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: But euro was 3"+ it's going to come down to bands of training which will have to be nowcasted 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted April 29, 2020 Share Posted April 29, 2020 14 minutes ago, forkyfork said: the ukmet is like the euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted April 29, 2020 Share Posted April 29, 2020 A wet end to April-up to 3 inches in some select spots! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted April 29, 2020 Share Posted April 29, 2020 Wet and windy tomorrow. A wind advisory wouldn't surprise me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted April 29, 2020 Share Posted April 29, 2020 16 minutes ago, Allsnow said: we won't know where the 2+" banding sets up until it happens 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted April 29, 2020 Share Posted April 29, 2020 16 minutes ago, forkyfork said: we won't know where the 2+" banding sets up until it happens lol this place would be crazy if this was winter and this was a snow event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted April 29, 2020 Share Posted April 29, 2020 1 hour ago, doncat said: ^ GFS similar with widespread 2" amounts NJ into city, though less east. thats a typical climo pattern, because the fronts tend to slow down over the Mtns to our west and dump out that way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Barman49 Posted April 29, 2020 Share Posted April 29, 2020 Looks like the KDIX radar is back up after repairs. Sent from my Lenovo TB-X605F using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted April 29, 2020 Share Posted April 29, 2020 nice plume of moisture inbound rainfall generally will be 1.5”-2.5”. localized 3”+ amounts possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted April 29, 2020 Share Posted April 29, 2020 1 hour ago, Barman49 said: Looks like the KDIX radar is back up after repairs. Sent from my Lenovo TB-X605F using Tapatalk Don't jinx it 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Barman49 Posted April 29, 2020 Share Posted April 29, 2020 Don't jinx it Lol... Been tough going between Philly & LI sites when using Radar Scope. Sent from my GM1925 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
acoolerclimate Posted April 29, 2020 Share Posted April 29, 2020 It appears the both Central Park and Newark will not hit 70 Degrees this April. I did some research, but I can find how common this is. It is odd too, when Jan hit 70 and March hit 80 in Newark this year. Anyone know how often, when the last time was, that April failed to hit 70? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted April 29, 2020 Share Posted April 29, 2020 4 minutes ago, acoolerclimate said: It appears the both Central Park and Newark will not hit 70 Degrees this April. I did some research, but I can find how common this is. It is odd too, when Jan hit 70 and March hit 80 in Newark this year. Anyone know how often, when the last time was, that April failed to hit 70? 1940...it could be the first time January had a higher temp. 69 than April's 68... 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted April 29, 2020 Share Posted April 29, 2020 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted April 30, 2020 Author Share Posted April 30, 2020 Clouds and somewhat cooler than normal conditions prevailed today. Meanwhile, in the Southwest near record and record heat prevailed. High temperatures included: Flagstaff: 79 (old record: 78, 1992); Las Vegas: 99 (tied record set in 2013); Phoenix: 104; and, Tucson: 101. Another storm will impact the region tomorrow and Friday. The potential exists for 0.50"-1.50" rain with some locally higher amounts in excess of 2.00". The highest amounts will likely be north and west of Newark and New York City. In the wake of the system, warmer conditions will return this weekend. However, the milder conditions will likely be short-lived. Overall, the first 10 days of May could see readings average 1° to 3° below normal in the northern Middle Atlantic and southern New England regions. Some of the guidance is even colder. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.2°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.6°C for the week centered around April 22. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.53°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.63°C. Neutral and occasionally warm ENSO conditions will likely prevail through mid-May. ENSO Region anomalies could begin a steady cooling during late April or May. The SOI was +6.56 today. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +1.160. On April 28, the MJO was in Phase 3 at an amplitude of 1.912 (RMM). The April 27-adjusted amplitude was 1.917. February 2020 saw the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly increase by more than 0.50°C. Such a development has typically occurred before a warmer than normal summer. In all such cases, a warmer than normal spring was followed by a warmer than normal summer. Such a summer is now likely in much or all of the East. The MJO was recently in Phase 1 at an amplitude in excess of 1.500 for two days. During the 1981-2019 period, the MJO was in Phase 1 at an amplitude of 1.500 or above for two or more years in six cases: 1988, 1990, 1995, 1997, 2005, and 2010. During May, three (50%) were cooler than normal; two (33%) were near normal; and, one (17%) was warmer than normal. Ultimately, two-thirds of those cases went on to have a warmer to much warmer than normal summer. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 100% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal April. April will likely finish with a mean temperature near 50.4°. Overall, May will likely be cooler than normal in the northern Middle Atlantic and southern New England region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted April 30, 2020 Share Posted April 30, 2020 The ground is somewhat saturated and a few of the hydrographs are predicting minor river flooding with 2-3” of rain. Think for the most part though that river flood risk is low outside of freak training over susceptible areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted April 30, 2020 Share Posted April 30, 2020 the last time April and May had below average temperatures was in 2003...some other years... year...total 90 degree days... 2003.....8 1992.....9 1967.....9 1961...29 1956...11 1950.....6 1947.....9 1961 had the only hot summer... 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted April 30, 2020 Share Posted April 30, 2020 The last day of April is averaging 56degs., or about 3degs. BN. Month to date is -2.7[50.2]. April will end at -2.6[50.4]. The first 10 days of May are averaging (GFS) -1.5[58.5] OP, -6.0[54 0] ENS. 51* at 6am, wet. 53* by 11am. 56* by 3pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted April 30, 2020 Share Posted April 30, 2020 This was the first April that Newark didn’t reach 70 degrees.It was also the 3rd lowest monthly max for NYC. First time that Islip stayed below 65 degrees in April. Also the first year that both January and March had a warmer monthly maximum temperature than April. Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Month of Apr Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Highest Max Temperature Missing Count 1 2020 69 1 2 1940 70 0 3 1931 71 0 Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY - Month of Apr Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Highest Max Temperature Missing Count 1 1874 64 0 - 1873 64 0 2 1940 67 0 - 1875 67 0 3 2020 68 1 - 1883 68 0 4 1884 69 0 Time Series Summary for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY - Month of Apr Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Highest Max Temperature Missing Count 1 2020 64 1 2 1988 68 0 - 1975 68 0 3 2014 69 0 - 1998 69 0 - 1984 69 0 - 1980 69 0 - 1978 69 0 Monthly Highest Max Temperature for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Year Jan Feb Mar Apr Season 2020 70 62 80 69 80 Monthly Highest Max Temperature for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Year Jan Feb Mar Apr Season 2020 69 62 77 68 77 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted April 30, 2020 Share Posted April 30, 2020 Already picked up quite a bit of rain here with training showers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted April 30, 2020 Share Posted April 30, 2020 Rain rates seem to be higher then radar would suggest with small droplet size. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted April 30, 2020 Share Posted April 30, 2020 Euro keeps banding to the west and east of nyc. Still plenty of rain to go around Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Claus Posted April 30, 2020 Share Posted April 30, 2020 These showers are dropping some pretty heavy rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted April 30, 2020 Share Posted April 30, 2020 30 minutes ago, Will - Rutgers said: These showers are dropping some pretty heavy rain. Light showers up this way so far. 0.15 In the bucket as of now. 47/46 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted April 30, 2020 Share Posted April 30, 2020 .60 so far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted April 30, 2020 Share Posted April 30, 2020 Continuing to really come down here and radar continues to fill in. Not going to underperform here today. Mesoscale models doing poorly so far with coverage of rain. NAM basically had nothing more than a few hours of poorly organized convection. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted April 30, 2020 Share Posted April 30, 2020 17 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: Continuing to really come down here and radar continues to fill in. Not going to underperform here today. Mesoscale models doing poorly so far with coverage of rain. NAM basically had nothing more than a few hours of poorly organized convection. some places will crack 3 inches by tomorrow for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted April 30, 2020 Share Posted April 30, 2020 Sun is out now on Long Island. Looks like the heaviest rains will move through tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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