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April 2020


donsutherland1
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Today featured ample sunshine and more above normal readings. High temperatures included:

Allentown: 70°; Bridgeport: 63°; Harrisburg: 68°; Islip: 64°; New York City: 68°; Newark: 68°; Philadelphia 65°; and, Poughkeepsie: 68°.

Parts of the central and southern U.S. saw near record to record warmth. At St. Louis, the temperature reached 87°. At New Orleans, the temperature topped out at 88°, which surpassed the previous daily record of 86°, which was set in 1978 and tied in 1986.

Across the Atlantic, record warmth pushed north and eastward into parts of Scandinavia and Russia. Record high temperatures included:

Halli, Finland: 59°; Helsinki: 57°; Mikkeli, Finland: 59°; St. Petersburg: 66°; Tallinn, Estonia: 64°; Tampere, Finland: 61°; and, Vilnius, Lithuania: 68°.

Cooler air will likely return just after April 10. Afterward, the next 1-2 weeks could see readings average generally below normal to near normal with a few warmer than normal days. The Plains States could experience much colder than normal readings.

Past cases that saw the NAO average -0.750 or below during April 1-5 with warmth in the East, as occurred this month, saw the development of a trough in the East after April 10. That trough typically persisted in the means for 1-2 weeks. The 4/6 0z run of the EPS weeklies supports such a scenario.

Looking ahead to May, 73% of cases that saw one or more days where the NAO fell to -1.000 or below during April 1-10, 1950-2019, as was the case this April, wound up with a warmer than normal May. 

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.8°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.6°C for the week centered around April 1. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.75°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.67°C. Neutral and occasionally warm ENSO conditions will likely prevail through at least the end of April.

The SOI was -8.22 today.

Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +1.719.

On April 6, the MJO was in Phase 6 at an amplitude of 1.122 (RMM). The April 5-adjusted amplitude was 1.034.

February 2020 saw the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly increase by more than 0.50°C. Such a development has typically occurred before a warmer than normal summer. In all such cases, a warmer than normal spring was followed by a warmer than normal summer. Therefore, a warmer than normal summer is currently more likely than not. Should Spring wind up warmer than normal, a warm or even hot summer will be very likely.

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The next 8 days are averaging 53degs., or about 2degs. AN.

The next 17 days are averaging -4.0[49.5](43/56).     We could be -1.7 by the 25th. with this.

55* here at 6am, street wet.   56* at 8am.       63* at 3pm.     66* at 4pm.    67* at 4:30pm.       52* by 8pm.     

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Near record April low moving through the Northeast next several days. It will snow over higher elevation and far enough north regions. Our area could see strong storms tomorrow followed by a freeze in the usually colder spots this weekend.

B9494275-FBE9-4D28-A8C7-66748613B9B3.thumb.png.b7b000df17868d5a0c21bb6a85e7dd13.png

97562961-1E75-4EBB-AE2C-1A6DC7A79E18.thumb.png.4917918aca44785102077987abf7b5b8.png

 

 

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54 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

the first week of april is running +3 to +5f across the area despite a -nao the whole time. lol

Welcome to the new normal. Actually it has allot more to do with the AO and the lack of cold air available to work with the NAO. I know you know this just making a point for others. 

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1 hour ago, forkyfork said:

the first week of april is running +3 to +5f across the area despite a -nao the whole time. lol

The -NAO/-EPO limited the maximum temperature potential. So the high temperature couldn’t make it to 80 like other recent years. But the -PNA and warming climate gave us the warm departure.

5CB11915-5B25-41C2-B0FD-6FC9B4D9E982.gif.b9c330dd98bde6cfe6a2bcda72945935.gif

Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Ending Date
Highest Max Temperature Apr 1 to Apr 10
Missing Count
2020-04-10 68 3
2019-04-10 80 0
2018-04-10 64 0
2017-04-10 82 0
2016-04-10 80 0
2015-04-10 68 0
2014-04-10 67 0
2013-04-10 85 0
2012-04-10 71 0
2011-04-10 70 0
2010-04-10 92 0


 

 

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3 hours ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

Welcome to the new normal. Actually it has allot more to do with the AO and the lack of cold air available to work with the NAO. I know you know this just making a point for others. 

the extremes of April 6-8 are extremely laughable, look at what happened in 1982 and 2003 on the same date vs what happened in 1991 and 2010 lol

90s and big heat vs an all out cold blizzard and a significant snowstorm

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4 hours ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

Welcome to the new normal. Actually it has allot more to do with the AO and the lack of cold air available to work with the NAO. I know you know this just making a point for others. 

might see the cold next week for a few days as the trough moves east, but it will modify as it comes east so the -departures are not as robust as the midwest.   Weeklies show us warming again by 4/22 give or take.

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Clouds broke in parts of the region this afternoon sending temperatures into the 60s and even the 70s. High temperatures included:

Allentown: 72°; Bridgeport: 54°; Harrisburg: 73°; Islip: 60°; New York City: 64°; Newark: 69°; Philadelphia: 75°; and, Poughkeepsie: 60°.

Parts of the southern United States again saw record heat. Highs included:

Kansas City: 88° (old record: 84°, 1905 and 2001); Miami: 92° (old record: 90°, 1953 and 2014); New Orleans: 88° (tied record set in 1948); St. Louis: 90° (old record: 89°, 1890); and, Topeka: 88° (tied record set in 1905).

Across the Atlantic Ocean, record warmth again prevailed in many parts of Europe. Daily record highs included:

Berlin: 73°; Capo Mele, Italy: 75°; Culdrose, UK: 64°; De Kooy, Netherlands: 66°; Diepholz, Germany: 72°; Dresden: 72°; Evreaux, France: 75°; Geilenkirchen, Germany: 77°; Genova, Italy: 77°; Goeree, Netherlands: 57°; Lille, France: 77°; London-Gatwick: 73°; Paris-Charles de Gaulle: 77°; Rotterdam: 73°; Rouen, France: 77°; and, Trieste, Italy: 75°.

Cooler air will likely return just after April 10. Afterward, the next 1-2 weeks could see readings average generally below normal to near normal with a few warmer than normal days. The Plains States could experience much colder than normal readings.

Past cases that saw the NAO average -0.750 or below during April 1-5 with warmth in the East, as occurred this month, saw the development of a trough in the East after April 10. That trough typically persisted in the means for 1-2 weeks. The 4/6 0z run of the EPS weeklies supports such a scenario.

Looking ahead to May, 73% of cases that saw one or more days where the NAO fell to -1.000 or below during April 1-10, 1950-2019, as was the case this April, wound up with a warmer than normal May. 

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.8°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.6°C for the week centered around April 1. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.75°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.67°C. Neutral and occasionally warm ENSO conditions will likely prevail through at least the end of April.

The SOI was +6.63 today.

Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +1.298.

On April 7, the MJO was in Phase 6 at an amplitude of 1.158 (RMM). The April 6-adjusted amplitude was 1.119.

February 2020 saw the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly increase by more than 0.50°C. Such a development has typically occurred before a warmer than normal summer. In all such cases, a warmer than normal spring was followed by a warmer than normal summer. Therefore, a warmer than normal summer is currently more likely than not. Should Spring wind up warmer than normal, a warm or even hot summer will be very likely.

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The next 8 days are averaging 52degs., or just about Normal.

50* at 6am.              60* with Thunder/Rain at 2pm.   55* at @2:10pm.

The next 17 days are averaging about 52.5(45/60), or about 2degs. BN.

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Severe Thunderstorm Watch up!

 

EVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WS 96
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1200 PM EDT THU APR 9 2020

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 96 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 400 PM EDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS

NJC001-003-005-007-009-011-013-015-017-019-021-023-025-027-029-
031-033-035-039-092000-
/O.NEW.KWNS.SV.A.0096.200409T1600Z-200409T2000Z/

NJ
.    NEW JERSEY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

ATLANTIC             BERGEN              BURLINGTON
CAMDEN               CAPE MAY            CUMBERLAND
ESSEX                GLOUCESTER          HUDSON
HUNTERDON            MERCER              MIDDLESEX
MONMOUTH             MORRIS              OCEAN
PASSAIC              SALEM               SOMERSET
UNION
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6 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Some clearing,  up to 61. Would at least expect some high gusts since we're under a wind advisory anyway 

 

Still mostly cloudy here with a cool breeze. Some gusty winds as the front comes through but I think this is meh for majority of the area.

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