bluewave Posted April 27, 2020 Share Posted April 27, 2020 Maybe we can sneak in some 70’s from Friday into the weekend. But it looks like another cool down in about a week to 10 days. 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted April 27, 2020 Share Posted April 27, 2020 Normal high temps are approaching 70° by beginning of May. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cleetussnow Posted April 27, 2020 Share Posted April 27, 2020 Quote . we saw this a couple of years ago. February had warmer highs than much of May (up to mid month anyway - cant recall dates) at my station. i think it was 2017 we hit like 78 or something in the February blow torch and then spring was awful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted April 27, 2020 Share Posted April 27, 2020 Picked up 0.11" of rain for the day yesterday. Current temp 44 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted April 27, 2020 Share Posted April 27, 2020 Enjoy next weekend, the first week of May looks hideous. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted April 27, 2020 Share Posted April 27, 2020 54 minutes ago, Rtd208 said: Picked up 0.11" of rain for the day yesterday. Current temp 44 3rd highest number of days with measurable precipitation through the 26th in NYC. But the actual amounts were slightly below normal for the month so far. NYC...3.77....-0.17 Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Number of Days Precipitation >= .01 Apr 1 to Apr 26 Missing Count 1 1934-04-26 15 0 2 2019-04-26 14 0 - 1957-04-26 14 0 - 1936-04-26 14 0 - 1929-04-26 14 0 - 1874-04-26 14 0 3 2020-04-26 13 0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
495weatherguy Posted April 27, 2020 Share Posted April 27, 2020 51 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Enjoy next weekend, the first week of May looks hideous. Ugh But if it helps in keeping people at home, so be it. Imagine if it was 70's and sunny? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JerseyWx Posted April 27, 2020 Share Posted April 27, 2020 58 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Enjoy next weekend, the first week of May looks hideous. Yeah tomorrow and then next weekend look to be the only nice days for awhile. For the last several years we seem to get teased by a few days here and there, only to return to the BN gloom once again. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
495weatherguy Posted April 27, 2020 Share Posted April 27, 2020 3 hours ago, donsutherland1 said: A stretch with highs near 60 and lows well into the 40s. Thank you. Depressing news hopefully this will make it easier to be inside though 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted April 27, 2020 Share Posted April 27, 2020 7 straight months of november 1 2 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted April 27, 2020 Share Posted April 27, 2020 4 hours ago, bluewave said: Maybe we can sneak in some 70’s from Friday into the weekend. But it looks like another cool down in about a week to 10 days. I am starting to think some of those calls for a hot summer "could" be in jeopardy. Maybe more of a muggy, warm and humid summer w/plenty of rain and storms?? Still early to call but we'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted April 27, 2020 Share Posted April 27, 2020 5 minutes ago, forkyfork said: 7 straight months of november That's better than 7 months of April Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dave0176 Posted April 27, 2020 Share Posted April 27, 2020 2 hours ago, Rtd208 said: I am starting to think some of those calls for a hot summer "could" be in jeopardy. Maybe more of a muggy, warm and humid summer w/plenty of rain and storms?? Still early to call but we'll see. So basically a redo of the last 6 years, it’s like the pattern has been on repeat since that blistering hot first half of July 2013. Actually seems to have gotten worse the last 4. Unbelievable because my business counts on the weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted April 27, 2020 Share Posted April 27, 2020 If the 240 hour 12Z Op Euro verified there would be record lows and max mins smashed everywhere from Maine to Alabama and Georgia 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted April 27, 2020 Share Posted April 27, 2020 2 hours ago, gravitylover said: That's better than 7 months of April I like early April when we actually have a chance at snow, but mid April on, let it heat up..... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted April 27, 2020 Share Posted April 27, 2020 2 hours ago, Rtd208 said: I am starting to think some of those calls for a hot summer "could" be in jeopardy. Maybe more of a muggy, warm and humid summer w/plenty of rain and storms?? Still early to call but we'll see. All the summers since the super El Niño in 2016 had near to record high dew points. The only summer with slightly cooler departures in the 0 to -0.5 range was 2017. The 2016 summer was a top 10 warmest across the area. Numerous top 10 warmest Julys and Augusts during 2016, 2018, and 2019. Time Series Summary for LAGUARDIA AIRPORT, NY - Month of Jul Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Mean Avg Temperature Missing Count 1 2010 82.8 0 2 1999 81.9 0 3 2019 81.5 0 4 2013 81.2 0 5 2016 81.1 0 6 1955 80.9 0 7 1966 80.8 0 8 2006 80.7 0 9 1994 80.6 0 10 2012 80.4 0 Time Series Summary for LAGUARDIA AIRPORT, NY - Month of Aug Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Mean Avg Temperature Missing Count 1 2016 81.6 0 2 2018 81.0 0 3 2005 80.9 0 4 2001 79.8 0 5 2015 79.3 0 6 1995 79.1 0 7 1988 78.8 0 8 2012 78.7 0 - 1955 78.7 0 9 2010 78.6 0 10 2002 78.5 0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted April 27, 2020 Share Posted April 27, 2020 may 2005. after that the switch flipped and we had one of the hottest summers on record 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted April 27, 2020 Share Posted April 27, 2020 2 hours ago, Rtd208 said: I am starting to think some of those calls for a hot summer "could" be in jeopardy. Maybe more of a muggy, warm and humid summer w/plenty of rain and storms?? Still early to call but we'll see. There's a lot of heat in the south though. Gulf is on fire. I think once this cool pattern breaks we may be in for some sizzling temperatures. I do think it'll be active though and the tropics will be extra active this year. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted April 27, 2020 Share Posted April 27, 2020 impressive tropical moisture connection with the next system 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted April 27, 2020 Share Posted April 27, 2020 36 minutes ago, forkyfork said: may 2005. after that the switch flipped and we had one of the hottest summers on record Following winter was meh except for 1 big snowstorm. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted April 27, 2020 Share Posted April 27, 2020 1 hour ago, SnoSki14 said: There's a lot of heat in the south though. Gulf is on fire. I think once this cool pattern breaks we may be in for some sizzling temperatures. I do think it'll be active though and the tropics will be extra active this year. even if it's not sizzling with those warm ocean temps (gulf and Atl) I think we have potential to be really humid.....Bluewave notes the humid summers of recent-I think this one will be no exception unless we get a persistent -EPO dropping cool/dry highs in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted April 27, 2020 Share Posted April 27, 2020 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted April 27, 2020 Author Share Posted April 27, 2020 This morning, the temperature fell to 39° at New York City's Central Park. That was only the third time since 2000 that the temperature fell into the 30s on or after April 27. The other times since 2000 were: April 27, 2000: 37° and April 28, 2012: 38°. Across parts of New York State, snow fell overnight into this morning. Snowfall amounts included: Binghamton: 0.9"; Cherry Valley: 14.0"; East Springfield: 6.5"; Jefferson: 8.0"; and, Springfield: 6.0". Tomorrow will likely feature partly sunny skies and somewhat milder conditions. However, clouds will increase later tomorrow as another storm impacts the region late in the week. Temperatures will likely average generally below normal across the Middle Atlantic and southern New England regions through the remainder of the month. Warmer conditions will likely return during the first week of May, but the milder conditions will likely be short-lived. Overall, the first 10 days of May could see readings average 1° to 3° below normal in the northern Middle Atlantic and southern New England regions. The probability of a cooler than normal May has increased since mid-April. The cooler scenario is supported by the latest EPS weekly guidance. The CFSv2 has been evolving toward a cooler scenario. The MJO was recently in Phase 1 at an amplitude in excess of 1.500 for two days. During the 1981-2019 period, the MJO was in Phase 1 at an amplitude of 1.500 or above for two or more years in six cases: 1988, 1990, 1995, 1997, 2005, and 2010. During May, three (50%) were cooler than normal; two (33%) were near normal; and, one (17%) was warmer than normal. Ultimately, two-thirds of those cases went on to have a warmer to much warmer than normal summer. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.2°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.6°C for the week centered around April 22. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.53°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.63°C. Neutral and occasionally warm ENSO conditions will likely prevail through mid-May. ENSO Region anomalies could begin a steady cooling during late April or May. The SOI was +0.94 today. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +1.283. On April 26, the MJO was in Phase 3 at an amplitude of 1.942 (RMM). The April 25-adjusted amplitude was 2.115. February 2020 saw the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly increase by more than 0.50°C. Such a development has typically occurred before a warmer than normal summer. In all such cases, a warmer than normal spring was followed by a warmer than normal summer. Such a summer is now likely in much or all of the East. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 100% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal April. April will likely finish with a mean temperature near 50.3°. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the_other_guy Posted April 28, 2020 Share Posted April 28, 2020 I called this in February. You cant run +5 or so for the year unless the earth is on fire. If summer has been running warm (it has) If fall (sans Nov) has been running warm (it has) And you find yourself +5 two months into the new year...something has to give somewhere. Would anybody in their right mind call for a BN July or August in the 2010s? It would be unusual The relief valve has been spring. Made perfect sense that it would occur this year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted April 28, 2020 Share Posted April 28, 2020 2 hours ago, jfklganyc said: I called this in February. You cant run +5 or so for the year unless the earth is on fire. If summer has been running warm (it has) If fall (sans Nov) has been running warm (it has) And you find yourself +5 two months into the new year...something has to give somewhere. Would anybody in their right mind call for a BN July or August in the 2010s? It would be unusual The relief valve has been spring. Made perfect sense that it would occur this year Definitely thought this would've occurred in March like past years but March-May have been flip-flopping where at least one of those months torch. This year it was March as April is a lock to be BN and May looks to be heading that way too. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted April 28, 2020 Share Posted April 28, 2020 I might be the exception but I’m enjoying this weather. I’ll take above average temps in June 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted April 28, 2020 Share Posted April 28, 2020 3 hours ago, dmillz25 said: I might be the exception but I’m enjoying this weather. I’ll take above average temps in June I would take 60s and 70s all year round. Im also loving this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cfa Posted April 28, 2020 Share Posted April 28, 2020 If it was sunny and dry I wouldn’t really care about it being BN, but I just don’t see how anyone can enjoy this extended dreariness. It’s as if we no longer get those extended stretches of 60’s/70’s with sunshine and low humidity. We just instantly go from Seattle to Houston with no adjustment period. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted April 28, 2020 Share Posted April 28, 2020 Another chilly morning at 37°. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted April 28, 2020 Share Posted April 28, 2020 The last 3 days of April are averaging 54degs., or about 5degs. BN. Month to date is -2.6[50.0]. April should end near -2.8[50.2]. The first 10 days of May are averaging 59 on the OP (near -Normal), but 53 on the ENS, or 6BN. 42* here at 6am. 44* at 8am. 50* by 10:30am. 56* by 2pm. Reached 62* by 4pm and then it quickly fell to 55* by 4:30pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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