bluewave Posted April 26, 2020 Share Posted April 26, 2020 26 minutes ago, Gravity Wave said: No 70s in Newark in April after a historically warm winter is honestly one of the most shocking temp statistics I can remember for this area, and that's saying a lot. This is probably the most significant monthly low max across the area since February 2015. We just don’t have the big -10 departure and top 2 monthly coldest finish. Since these cold records are few and far between, they really stand out. All the record warm records tend to run together and people get used to them. Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Month of Feb Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Highest Max Temperature Missing Count 1 1978 40 0 2 2015 42 0 3 1969 43 0 - 1934 43 0 4 1986 49 0 - 1968 49 0 - 1936 49 0 Time Series Summary for IGOR I SIKORSKY MEMORIAL AIRPORT, CT - Month of Feb Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Highest Max Temperature Missing Count 1 1978 36 0 2 2015 37 0 3 1969 42 0 4 1963 43 0 5 1968 44 0 Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Month of Feb Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Mean Avg Temperature Missing Count 1 1934 18.6 0 2 2015 22.6 0 3 1979 23.5 0 4 1936 24.4 0 5 1978 25.5 0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted April 26, 2020 Share Posted April 26, 2020 Lol, sleet and piss poor flakes mixing in here. Car top slushing up. 3 consecutive weekends of winter. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted April 26, 2020 Share Posted April 26, 2020 30 minutes ago, Gravity Wave said: No 70s in Newark in April after a historically warm winter is honestly one of the most shocking temp statistics I can remember for this area, and that's saying a lot. 1998 comes to mind but that came after five straight 80 degree days to end the month of March...the last time NYC had its first 70 degree day in May was on 5/5/1940...the record is 5/9/1875 for the latest 70 degree day...its going to be the first time January had a warmer day than April... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted April 26, 2020 Share Posted April 26, 2020 EPS pretty bullish on maintaining the MJO 1-2 standing wave until further notice. This has translated into the blocking and Eastern Trough during April. It may be a result of the lingering record +IOD SST warmth from last fall. The rapid rebound to record SST’s north of Australia had a big influence on our winter pattern. So it will be interesting to see if events originating in the IO last fall can still have some effect on our summer regime. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted April 26, 2020 Share Posted April 26, 2020 4 hours ago, Rtd208 said: Yep. The models have handled rain amounts poorly IMO. They have either been to wet or to dry, in this case to wet. We'll see what happens the rest of the day but I wouldn't expect much. On and off heavy showers out there, enough to ruin the day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JustinRP37 Posted April 26, 2020 Share Posted April 26, 2020 Why is spring always so miserable?? The models continue to show well-below average temperatures. The past couple of years have been sad, too warm for winter sports in the area and then springs are a washout. The poor weather dependent businesses. At least this year they aren't missing much because of COVID-19. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted April 26, 2020 Share Posted April 26, 2020 Certainty less rain than expected but cool damp and miserable nonetheless. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted April 26, 2020 Author Share Posted April 26, 2020 18 hours ago, etudiant said: Looks like Greenwich, CT. The park on the sound is just delightful. That is Manor Park in Larchmont, NY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted April 26, 2020 Share Posted April 26, 2020 Spring has warmed less than all other seasons across our area since 1981. Local seasonal warming since 1981 DJF.......+0.7°F Decade MAM.....+0.4°F/Decade JJA........+0.6°F/Decade SON.......+0.8°F/Decade 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted April 26, 2020 Share Posted April 26, 2020 6 hours ago, Brian5671 said: where's all the rain today? Looks like bulk of the day could be dry.... Been a steady light to at times moderate rain here today despite relatively scattered look on radar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted April 26, 2020 Share Posted April 26, 2020 Like @doncat said, it’s been miserable all day regardless of what’s been tallied in the gauge Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted April 26, 2020 Share Posted April 26, 2020 You know it’s a shit weather day when even the convection in South Florida is dying out. Right now best looking thunderstorm in the country is a small cell which popped up East of Daytona and headed OTS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted April 26, 2020 Share Posted April 26, 2020 5 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: You know it’s a shit weather day when even the convection in South Florida is dying out. Right now best looking thunderstorm in the country is a small cell which popped up East of Daytona and headed OTS. Yeah man...at least I've seen frozen off and on all day. Just a tiny bit too warm and timing couldn't have been worse. Incoming precip might be frozen per radar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted April 26, 2020 Share Posted April 26, 2020 1 hour ago, IrishRob17 said: Like @doncat said, it’s been miserable all day regardless of what’s been tallied in the gauge Currently 43/42 here with 0.17 in the bucket so far today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted April 26, 2020 Share Posted April 26, 2020 I give up. This was NOT elevation dependent. I'm at roughly 2000' and mixed all damn day. Someone 30 miles north at 1600' is at 4" and counting Burlington VT was at 55° all damn day. Never had the rates to cool the column. Oh well still a pretty sweet deal for late April after 6.5" last weekend still had 100% 3" depth when I left to come home midday Sunday last week beat an underperforming rainstorm any day. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted April 26, 2020 Author Share Posted April 26, 2020 Rain will continue overnight into tomorrow morning before yielding to mainly overcast skies. Tuesday could see partly sunny skies. However, another storm will likely impact the region late in the week. Temperatures will likely average generally below normal across the Middle Atlantic and southern New England regions through the remainder of the month. Warmer conditions will likely return during the first week of May, but the milder conditions will likely we short-lived. Overall, the first 10 days of May could see readings average 1° to 3° below normal in the northern Middle Atlantic and southern New England regions. The probability of a cooler than normal May has increased since mid-April. The cooler scenario is supported by the latest EPS weekly guidance and the CFSv2 has been evolving toward that scenario. The MJO was recently in Phase 1 at an amplitude in excess of 1.500 for two days. During the 1981-2019 period, the MJO was in Phase 1 at an amplitude of 1.500 or above for two or more years in six cases: 1988, 1990, 1995, 1997, 2005, and 2010. During May, three (50%) were cooler than normal; two (33%) were near normal; and, one (17%) was warmer than normal. Ultimately, two-thirds of those cases went on to have a warmer to much warmer than normal summer. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.7°C for the week centered around April 8. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.55°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.62°C. Neutral and occasionally warm ENSO conditions will likely prevail through mid-May. ENSO Region anomalies could begin a steady cooling during late April or May. The SOI was -7.43 today. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +1.113. On April 25, the MJO was in Phase 3 at an amplitude of 2.116 (RMM). The April 24-adjusted amplitude was 2.151. February 2020 saw the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly increase by more than 0.50°C. Such a development has typically occurred before a warmer than normal summer. In all such cases, a warmer than normal spring was followed by a warmer than normal summer. Such a summer is now likely in much or all of the East. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 100% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal April. April will likely finish with a mean temperature near 50.5°. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted April 27, 2020 Share Posted April 27, 2020 Unreal. 32° and 90% snow. Accumulating but about to cut off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CPcantmeasuresnow Posted April 27, 2020 Share Posted April 27, 2020 3 hours ago, bluewave said: Spring has warmed less than all other seasons across our area since 1981. Local seasonal warming since 1981 DJF.......+0.7°F Decade MAM.....+0.4°F/Decade JJA........+0.6°F/Decade SON.......+0.8°F/Decade I would have expected all of those seasons to have warmed even more than what you show here. When you give the deviations here, are they increases for the last decade 2010-2019 vs. the 30 year averages 1951-1980? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted April 27, 2020 Share Posted April 27, 2020 36 minutes ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said: I would have expected all of those seasons to have warmed even more than what you show here. When you give the deviations here, are they increases for the last decade 2010-2019 vs. the 30 year averages 1951-1980? It might be overall record keeping. Might be wrong but incase it isn't that's apple's to oranges. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted April 27, 2020 Share Posted April 27, 2020 Moderate snow....~.5" areas to the north cleaned up. Back to the urban cesspool tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted April 27, 2020 Share Posted April 27, 2020 fairly accurate depiction if refreshed. Live update. http://www.co.delaware.ny.us/webcam.htm 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted April 27, 2020 Share Posted April 27, 2020 5 hours ago, IrishRob17 said: Like @doncat said, it’s been miserable all day regardless of what’s been tallied in the gauge Mostly drizzled my way to 0.30" with a 50/44 temp split. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted April 27, 2020 Share Posted April 27, 2020 The last 4 days of April are averaging 52.5degs., or 6degs. BN. Month to date is -2.2[50.2]. April should end at -2.5[50.5]. The first 7 days of May are averaging 55 on the GFS ENS but 63 on the OP. Normal would be near 60.5. 41* here at 6am. 44* at 10am. 50* by 3pm. 46* by 10pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted April 27, 2020 Author Share Posted April 27, 2020 At 7 am, the temperature was 39 degrees at New York City. The last time the temperature fell into the 30s this late in the season was April 28, 2012 when the temperature fell to 38 degrees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CPcantmeasuresnow Posted April 27, 2020 Share Posted April 27, 2020 35.6° light rain, some wet flakes. If this pattern switched even a month earlier it could have been a memorable last two weeks of March. The last of 100 other reasons to make this winter season a top 3 stinker of all time. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted April 27, 2020 Share Posted April 27, 2020 EPS looks pretty darn cool after May 4/5 and seasonal before that. Could see 70F again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted April 27, 2020 Share Posted April 27, 2020 12 hours ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said: I would have expected all of those seasons to have warmed even more than what you show here. When you give the deviations here, are they increases for the last decade 2010-2019 vs. the 30 year averages 1951-1980? You need at least 30-40 years to generate a meaningful trend with the NCDC charts. 10 years is too short a period of time to use on the site. You can generate charts for a wide variety of regions or cites. https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/cag/divisional/time-series/3004/tavg/3/5/1981-2019?trend=true&trend_base=10&begtrendyear=1981&endtrendyear=2019 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
495weatherguy Posted April 27, 2020 Share Posted April 27, 2020 32 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: EPS looks pretty darn cool after May 4/5 and seasonal before that. Could see 70F again. How cool are you talking about? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted April 27, 2020 Author Share Posted April 27, 2020 13 minutes ago, 495weatherguy said: How cool are you talking about? A stretch with highs near 60 and lows well into the 40s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted April 27, 2020 Share Posted April 27, 2020 8 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said: A stretch with highs near 60 and lows well into the 40s. Could be even cooler with widespread clouds/rain. When the pattern does break either later in May or June we'll jump right into mid-summer most likely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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