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April 2020


donsutherland1
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On 4/15/2020 at 3:03 PM, snowman19 said:

Stop listening to Joe Bastardi lol

we did have snow though, although it was brief.  This cold absolutely sucks though, I'm still running my space heaters.  I was hoping for it to get warm so I could evict these mice who came inside when I was having my bathroom plumbing redone and the contractor left without finishing the job.  I got someone else to plug up the holes he left behind but the mice wouldn't leave and I tried everything- poison, glue traps, etc.  The poison made me more sick than doing anything to the mice.  I noticed that they seem to be more active when I turn my heat on so I turned it off and hoped it would be warmer outside by now so they'd just leave.  But they haven't and the only other thing that keeps them in hiding is when I leave my light on all night and laying down plastic bags on my floor for some reason.  Stupid useless creatures like this should be extinct......  The things I wouldn't mind seeing wiped off the planet are: mice/rats, mosquitoes, fleas/ticks, cockroaches, flies (of all types), centipedes/millipedes, etc.  Why do all the useful creatures go extinct while the pests keep overpopulating?  I even have cats roaming around outside and the dirty rodents somehow managed to avoid them.

anyway I digress.  I'm leaving for the weekend and turning my heat off completely and I have a new poison I'm laying down everywhere so hopefully everything will be dead when I get back.  The glue traps killed a few of them but the rest somehow learned to avoid it.  I'm also thinking of leaving my lights on a timer.

 

 

 

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1 hour ago, bluewave said:

Record low 850mb temperatures this morning.

 

is this in concert with the extremely warm Gulf causing all this severe weather?

how are these cold airmasses able to get this far south so late in the season?

I'm rooting for a solar flare to bake us now lol since longer days seem to be useless for warmth.

 

 

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31 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

is this in concert with the extremely warm Gulf causing all this severe weather?

how are these cold airmasses able to get this far south so late in the season?

I'm rooting for a solar flare to bake us now lol since longer days seem to be useless for warmth.

 

 

Yeah, the record Gulf SST’s helped fuel all the severe weather this month. The strong  -EPO blocking near Alaska and  -NAO allowed a piece of the TPV to drop into New England today. Notice how that block near Alaska pushed further east from the March position. Just a slight shift in concert with the -NAO flattened out the SE Ridge and delivered the cold.

March

FCB58730-5A06-4A89-A6DC-DFD37DE335A0.gif.fec79145cba9e4fbbc0f47773a5f6b6f.gif

April 

9E88AD61-F07F-4024-9067-7AD1143BF591.gif.c343ffb7720854ab7e3f7a7a5d6a3233.gif

 

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56 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Yeah, the record Gulf SST’s helped fuel all the severe weather this month. The strong  -EPO blocking near Alaska and  -NAO allowed a piece of the TPV to drop into New England today. Notice how that block near Alaska pushed further east from the March position. Just a slight shift in concert with the -NAO flattened out the SE Ridge and delivered the cold.

March

FCB58730-5A06-4A89-A6DC-DFD37DE335A0.gif.fec79145cba9e4fbbc0f47773a5f6b6f.gif

April 

9E88AD61-F07F-4024-9067-7AD1143BF591.gif.c343ffb7720854ab7e3f7a7a5d6a3233.gif

 

Goldberg still keeps talking about the pattern flipping in early May.

btw, In the village I live in which has a pop of around 17 K, we already have 300+ cases.  Not going outside anywhere.  We have lots of stray cats outside and I just heard on the news that two cats have tested positive and they have symptoms of the virus.  

 

omg the cats might be more dangerous than the mice- and there are stray cats outside my house lol

 

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Overnight, readings could approach or even break some daily record low temperatures in parts of the region. The forecast lows for April 23 for select locations on the 12z MOS were as follows:

Albany: 22 (record: 26, 1975); Bridgeport: 32 (record: 30, 1982); Islip: 32 (record: 31, 1982 and 1989); Newark: 33 (record: 32, 1933); Westhampton: 21 (record: 25, 2018); and, White Plains: 29 (record: 26, 1982).

A storm coming out of the Ohio Valley tomorrow will lead to increasing clouds during the daytime. Showers and periods of rain could move into the area during the afternoon or evening.

Temperatures will likely stay well below normal through Friday.

Overall, readings will likely average generally below normal to near normal with a few warmer than normal days across the Middle Atlantic and southern New England regions through most of the remainder of the month. Warmer than normal conditions could return near the end of the month or just afterward.
 
Past cases that saw the NAO average -0.750 or below during April 1-5 with warmth in the East, as occurred this month, saw the development of a trough in the East after April 10. That trough typically persisted in the means for 1-2 weeks.

Looking ahead to May, 73% of cases that saw one or more days where the NAO fell to -1.000 or below during April 1-10, 1950-2019, as was the case this April, wound up with a warmer than normal May. However, uncertainty about the May outcome has increased. The MJO was recently in Phase 1 at an amplitude in excess of 1.500 for two days. During the 1981-2019 period, the MJO was in Phase 1 at an amplitude of 1.500 or above for two or more years in six cases: 1988, 1990, 1995, 1997, 2005, and 2010. During May, three (50%) were cooler than normal; two (33%) were near normal; and, one (17%) was warmer than normal. Ultimately, two-thirds of those cases went on to have a warmer to much warmer than normal summer.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.7°C for the week centered around April 8. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.55°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.62°C. Neutral and occasionally warm ENSO conditions will likely prevail through mid-May. ENSO Region anomalies could begin a steady cooling during late April or May.

The SOI was -2.67 today.

Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -0.660.

On April 21, the MJO was in Phase 2 at an amplitude of 1.800 (RMM). The April 20-adjusted amplitude was 1.719.

February 2020 saw the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly increase by more than 0.50°C. Such a development has typically occurred before a warmer than normal summer. In all such cases, a warmer than normal spring was followed by a warmer than normal summer. Based on recent MJO data, the probability of a warmer than normal summer has increased. Such a summer is now likely in much or all of the East.

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 91% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal April. April will likely finish with a mean temperature near 51.5°.

 

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The last  8 days of April are averaging 54degs., or about 3degs. BN.

Month to date is  -1.1[50.6].      April should end at -1.6[51.4].

41* here at 6am.    42* at 7am.       48* by 11am.        50* by 12:30pm.

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Morning thoughts...

Yesterday, some parts of New York State into northern New England saw some snow. Snowfall amounts included: Albany: 0.1”; Binghamton: 0.6”; Buffalo: 0.7” (old record: 0.2”, 1986); and, Caribou: 5.5” (old record: 4.6”, 1989).

This morning, temperatures fell to unseasonably to unseasonably low levels across the area and the Northeast. Low temperatures included: Albany: 28; Bridgeport: 32; Caribou: 21 (tied record set in 1994); Islip: 33; Poughkeepsie: 27; Westhampton: 20 (old record: 25, 2018); and, White Plains: 34.

At 8:15 am EDT, a system coming eastward was bringing rain to parts of Illinois, Indiana and along its warm front heavy rain and thunderstorms were poised to move into the Atlanta area, which has already received 30.32” precipitation this year, which is 14.18” above normal. Showers and periods of rain associated with that system will move into the New York Metro Area and suburbs later today or this evening.

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Just now, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

Light snow currently on the uws!!!

yea seeing that here too, thought I was hallucinating, lol

don't really keep records or have the best memory but this would def be up there for latest I've seen snow fall (with or without accumulations)

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5 minutes ago, ILoveWinter said:

yea seeing that here too, thought I was hallucinating, lol

don't really keep records or have the best memory but this would def be up there for latest I've seen snow fall (with or without accumulations)

The crazy part is that it’s 41 degrees. Shows you how cold it is aloft. 

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3 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

The crazy part is that it’s 41 degrees. Shows you how cold it is aloft. 

And dry, subcloud level, dewpoint in the teens in NYC. Humidity in the 30% range, lends to the evaporative cooling effects in sustaining frozen precipitation in the mid 40s at surface. This is the latest in April, I too recall having light snow/sleet in Queens. 

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