Brian5671 Posted April 18, 2020 Share Posted April 18, 2020 Nasty day here, rain ended but then just had another shower. 42 degrees-let's hope that -NAO falls apart in the longer range Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JackMalarchey Posted April 18, 2020 Share Posted April 18, 2020 Let’s hope for a warm but not hot spring and summer those are always annoying. Especially if we’re going to be home. I’m beginning to get real depressed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted April 18, 2020 Share Posted April 18, 2020 1 hour ago, Brian5671 said: Nasty day here, rain ended but then just had another shower. 42 degrees-let's hope that -NAO falls apart in the longer range You asked for it last week and here it is Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted April 19, 2020 Author Share Posted April 19, 2020 Earlier today, a cold rain fell across the New York Metro Area. Toward the end of the day, some areas in the nearby suburbs saw a little sleet. Across central New York State and southern and central New England, snow fell. Daily snowfall amounts included: Albany: 0.5"; Binghamton: 0.3" (storm total: 5.7"); Boston: 0.7"; Burrillville, RI: 5.8"; Hartford: 2.4" (old record: 1.7", 1965); Providence: 1.2" (old record: Trace, 1967, 2001, 2018); Tolland, CT: 5.5"; and, Worcester: 4.7". The last time Boston had measurable snow in April was April 2, 2018 when 0.7" fell. Through at least April 24, readings could average generally below normal to near normal with a few warmer than normal days across the Middle Atlantic and southern New England regions. Warmer than normal conditions could return during the closing days of April. Past cases that saw the NAO average -0.750 or below during April 1-5 with warmth in the East, as occurred this month, saw the development of a trough in the East after April 10. That trough typically persisted in the means for 1-2 weeks. Looking ahead to May, 73% of cases that saw one or more days where the NAO fell to -1.000 or below during April 1-10, 1950-2019, as was the case this April, wound up with a warmer than normal May. In addition, two-thirds of cases that saw the MJO reach Phase 8 at an amplitude of 2.000 or above during the April 5-20 period, as happened this month, saw a warmer than normal May. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.8°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.6°C for the week centered around April 8. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.72°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.58°C. Neutral and occasionally warm ENSO conditions will likely prevail through at least the end of April. The SOI was -5.34 today. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +1.717. On April 17, the MJO was in Phase 1 at an amplitude of 1.390 (RMM). The April 16-adjusted amplitude was 1.301. February 2020 saw the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly increase by more than 0.50°C. Such a development has typically occurred before a warmer than normal summer. In all such cases, a warmer than normal spring was followed by a warmer than normal summer. Therefore, a warmer than normal summer is currently more likely than not. Should Spring wind up warmer than normal, a warm or even hot summer will be very likely. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 60% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal April. April will likely finish with a mean temperature near 52.5°. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted April 19, 2020 Share Posted April 19, 2020 Another frosty morning...temps near freezing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted April 19, 2020 Share Posted April 19, 2020 The next 8 days are averaging 51.5degs., or about 4.5degs. BN. Month to date is -0.2[50.8]. Should be near -1.3[51.0] by the 27th. The remainder of the month (12 days) is averaging 52.5 or 5.0degs. BN. With this, April will finish near -1.5[51.5]. 41* here at 6am. 47* by 10am. 50* at 11am. 52* at Noon. 59* by 3pm. 55* by 10am. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CPcantmeasuresnow Posted April 19, 2020 Share Posted April 19, 2020 Bottomed out at 27.8° this morning. Definitely looking forward to 60° later today. Where was this pattern December 15th through March? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CPcantmeasuresnow Posted April 19, 2020 Share Posted April 19, 2020 Amazing that so many seem to be complaining about how cold April has been and most stations are now within a half degree plus or minus normal right now for the month (NYC -0.2° through the 18th, Newark +0.2° and Poughkeepsie +0.5°. We've grown so accustomed to above normal temperatures we've forgotten what normal feels like, or at least what use to be normal as the planet continues to warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HailMan06 Posted April 19, 2020 Share Posted April 19, 2020 21 hours ago, Ericjcrash said: Yeah it was brutal. Saw more snow in the past 2 weeks than I did all summer. Ready for 70° and sun but at this rate looks like we'll just jump to 85° and humid. That better be true every year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted April 19, 2020 Share Posted April 19, 2020 On 4/17/2020 at 9:14 PM, donsutherland1 said: Earlier today, a storm brought 3.0" snow to Chicago. That smashed the daily record of 0.5", which fell in 1949. The only higher amount recorded after April 15 was 3.1", which fell on April 23, 1967. Last year, Chicago picked up 2.5" snow on April 27. Detroit had received 2.9" snow as of 5 pm. Tonight into the tomorrow, that storm will bring a cold rain to the coastal region of the Middle Atlantic States, including Philadelphia, Newark, and New York City. An area stretching from northeastern Pennsylvania across central New York State and into central New England could pick up at accumulating snow. Snowfall estimates include: Albany: 3"-6" Binghamton: 3"-6" Boston: 1"-3" Scranton: 2"-4" The last time Boston had measurable snow in April was April 2, 2018 when 0.7" fell. That last time Boston received 1" or more snow in April was April 4, 2016 when 4.7" fell. No measurable snow is likely in Islip, New York City, Newark, Philadelphia, and adjacent areas. There a chilly rain will fall. Some sleet pellets could be mixed in. Through at least April 24, readings could average generally below normal to near normal with a few warmer than normal days across the Middle Atlantic and southern New England regions. Support on the extended guidance for a return of warmer than normal conditions for the closing days of April has increased. Some of the guidance shows the potential for much above normal temperatures to develop. Past cases that saw the NAO average -0.750 or below during April 1-5 with warmth in the East, as occurred this month, saw the development of a trough in the East after April 10. That trough typically persisted in the means for 1-2 weeks. Looking ahead to May, 73% of cases that saw one or more days where the NAO fell to -1.000 or below during April 1-10, 1950-2019, as was the case this April, wound up with a warmer than normal May. In addition, two-thirds of cases that saw the MJO reach Phase 8 at an amplitude of 2.000 or above during the April 5-20 period, as happened this month, saw a warmer than normal May. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.8°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.6°C for the week centered around April 8. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.72°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.58°C. Neutral and occasionally warm ENSO conditions will likely prevail through at least the end of April. The SOI was -18.53 today. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +1.531. On April 16, the MJO was in Phase 1 at an amplitude of 1.300 (RMM). The April 15-adjusted amplitude was 1.192. February 2020 saw the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly increase by more than 0.50°C. Such a development has typically occurred before a warmer than normal summer. In all such cases, a warmer than normal spring was followed by a warmer than normal summer. Therefore, a warmer than normal summer is currently more likely than not. Should Spring wind up warmer than normal, a warm or even hot summer will be very likely. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 58% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal April. April will likely finish with a mean temperature near 52.5°. Big bust for Albany? Seemed like classic spring elevation storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lee59 Posted April 19, 2020 Share Posted April 19, 2020 24 minutes ago, qg_omega said: Big bust for Albany? Seemed like classic spring elevation storm There was actually about 1-3 inches of snow in the Hudson Valley south of Albany to about the Kingston area. I think what must have happened in Albany is the precip. never came down hard enough to accumulate. However, it was definitely an elevation storm, most of the snow and the biggest totals were in elevated areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted April 19, 2020 Share Posted April 19, 2020 1 hour ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said: Amazing that so many seem to be complaining about how cold April has been and most stations are now within a half degree plus or minus normal right now for the month (NYC -0.2° through the 18th, Newark +0.2° and Poughkeepsie +0.5°. We've grown so accustomed to above normal temperatures we've forgotten what normal feels like, or at least what use to be normal as the planet continues to warm. Yeah, we have become used to at least +2 to +3 monthly departures and top 10 warmest finishes. But Islip was able to set a record low temperature the other day. Record lows have become few and far between. The lack of an April monthly high temperature of 70 or warmer really stands out so far. If this can hold, then it would be the lowest April high temperature on record at Newark. NYC is currently at 3 lowest. This tells you how strong the blocking influence on on pattern is this month. 4/17 30 in 2020 30 in 2005 30 in 1971 Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Month of Apr Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Highest Max Temperature Missing Count 1 2020 69 12 2 1940 70 0 3 1931 71 0 4 1966 72 0 - 1937 72 0 5 1998 74 0 - 1997 74 0 - 1988 74 0 Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY - Month of Apr Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Highest Max Temperature Missing Count 1 1874 64 0 - 1873 64 0 2 1940 67 0 - 1875 67 0 3 2020 68 12 - 1883 68 0 4 1884 69 0 - 1876 69 0 5 1916 70 0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JakkelWx Posted April 19, 2020 Share Posted April 19, 2020 Sorry to post in this subforum but where the hell is our warmth? It just doesn't wanna get above normal. Where is our spring? We haven't escaped the cold down here either. When is the pattern finally gonna turn above normal? SE ridge all the way! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted April 19, 2020 Share Posted April 19, 2020 8 minutes ago, JakkelWx said: Sorry to post in this subforum but where the hell is our warmth? It just doesn't wanna get above normal. Where is our spring? We haven't escaped the cold down here either. When is the pattern finally gonna turn above normal? SE ridge all the way! read above. -NAO, -EPO pattern for awhile. Meanwhile today is shaping up to be nice-sunny and low 60's here 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted April 19, 2020 Share Posted April 19, 2020 28 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: read above. -NAO, -EPO pattern for awhile. Meanwhile today is shaping up to be nice-sunny and low 60's here Last nights runs showed more of the same overall trough into the east with a day or two of transient warmth towards or slightly above normal the next 10 days to 2 weeks.. Still thinking into the first week of May we return back to a warmer pattern, more a bit of sustained umph... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted April 19, 2020 Share Posted April 19, 2020 The EPS is cool and wet for us until further notice. The -EPO/-NAO will get some help from a strong +PNA ridge out west. So the trough stays in place over the East. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted April 19, 2020 Share Posted April 19, 2020 Just now, bluewave said: The EPS is cool and wet for us until further notice. The -EPO/-NAO will get some help from a strong +PNA ridge out west. You know it’s a cold pattern when nyc is challenging record lows Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CPcantmeasuresnow Posted April 19, 2020 Share Posted April 19, 2020 40 minutes ago, JakkelWx said: Sorry to post in this subforum but where the hell is our warmth? It just doesn't wanna get above normal. Where is our spring? We haven't escaped the cold down here either. When is the pattern finally gonna turn above normal? SE ridge all the way! Good Lord one month of normal temperatures after Several months of way above normal and people are complaining. It just reinforces my thoughts from several posts previous. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted April 19, 2020 Share Posted April 19, 2020 people complaining about no Spring must have been asleep in February and March...to have a Spring you need a winter first... 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted April 19, 2020 Author Share Posted April 19, 2020 2 hours ago, qg_omega said: Big bust for Albany? Seemed like classic spring elevation storm It was. Overall, it wasn’t a good winter for Albany. Of course, it was much worse farther south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted April 19, 2020 Share Posted April 19, 2020 1 hour ago, Allsnow said: You know it’s a cold pattern when nyc is challenging record lows It looks more and more likely that we'll go straight into summer especially if the cooler pattern drags into May. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted April 19, 2020 Share Posted April 19, 2020 54 minutes ago, uncle W said: people complaining about no Spring must have been asleep in February and March...to have a Spring you need a winter first... It feels like it’s been March since December 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted April 19, 2020 Share Posted April 19, 2020 17 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: It looks more and more likely that we'll go straight into summer especially if the cooler pattern drags into May. Reading Larry Cosgroves weekly newsletter from last night he thinks the cooler/wetter pattern will probably last thru the first 10 days of May then we will (hopefully) start to warm up after that. As of right now he pointing to the likelihood that JAS will be very hot, we'll see. 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted April 19, 2020 Share Posted April 19, 2020 Well officially, JJA is supposed to be just 0.6sd AN. However, AN is 4.5× as likely as the other way-----are you really surprised? I am more concerned with the projected hurricane season ACE of 180---which of course can not tell you where they will strike---but too many bowling balls spoils the froth and too many cooks spoil the broth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted April 19, 2020 Share Posted April 19, 2020 What a disgusting pattern on the GFS. Rainstorms after rainstorms and cool pattern 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted April 19, 2020 Share Posted April 19, 2020 A wild card moving forward may be all that warm water over the Eastern IO. MJO 3 is associated with a trough over the East this time of year. During the summer this pattern can produce a trough over the Midwest or Great Lakes. But the Atlantic and Gulf record SST’s support a strong WAR pattern. How far west this ridge is able to build will determine whether we have a 0 to +2 summer or warmer. In any event, looks like it could be wet and humid if such a pattern sets up. So maybe warmer summer minimums and clouds preventing more frequent 100 days of 2010 to 2013. Be interesting to see how things turn out. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted April 19, 2020 Share Posted April 19, 2020 Nor’easter after Nor’easter long range, would be epic winter pattern Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted April 19, 2020 Share Posted April 19, 2020 Another nice day out there today. Its good to see we are at least getting some really nice days between the cooler and rainier days. Current temp 63 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cleetussnow Posted April 19, 2020 Share Posted April 19, 2020 Lawn needs the rain. Brain does not! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ict1523 Posted April 19, 2020 Share Posted April 19, 2020 I might be in the minority but I do not think this spring has been that bad so far. We've actually had a solid number of dry, sunny days in between the rain. Does anyone know where to find the charts that show monthly cloud cover at various stations? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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