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April 2020


donsutherland1
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1 hour ago, snowman19 said:

On the bright side, the GFS and Euro are showing a nice warm shot for next weekend, 70’s, maybe even approaching 80 degrees 

Maybe we can sneak in a 70 degree reading on one of the warmer days. But it’s tough to get to reach 80 with the persistent -NAO pattern. We get the high over SE Canada with clouds, showers, and onshore flow on our milder days.

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4 minutes ago, Ericjcrash said:

Snow really picking up now, everything covered except the middle of the street but with the sun down and rates picking up it's only a matter of time. Excellent Apil 17th.

Where did u drive up to? Snowing here but not sticking. Starting to want to stick on cartops, as sun goes down.

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40 minutes ago, lee59 said:

This won't materialize but it does look like the snow is going to be a little further south than earlier anticipated. May be some decent amounts as temperatures look to be dropping pretty fast  as the snow picks up.

The trend has definitely been further south and colder but uptons map doesn't match their point and click forecasts which doesn't mention any snow anywhere near the city. I wouldn't be surprised if there are some pellets or white rain near the city but that would be it, if that.   

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Earlier today, a storm brought 3.0" snow to Chicago. That smashed the daily record of 0.5", which fell in 1949. The only higher amount recorded after April 15 was 3.1", which fell on April 23, 1967. Last year, Chicago picked up 2.5" snow on April 27. Detroit had received 2.9" snow as of 5 pm.

Tonight into the tomorrow, that storm will bring a cold rain to the coastal region of the Middle Atlantic States, including Philadelphia, Newark, and New York City. An area stretching from northeastern Pennsylvania across central New York State and into central New England could pick up at accumulating snow.

Snowfall estimates include:

Albany: 3"-6"
Binghamton: 3"-6"
Boston: 1"-3"
Scranton: 2"-4"

The last time Boston had measurable snow in April was April 2, 2018 when 0.7" fell. That last time Boston received 1" or more snow in April was April 4, 2016 when 4.7" fell.

No measurable snow is likely in Islip, New York City, Newark, Philadelphia, and adjacent areas. There a chilly rain will fall. Some sleet pellets could be mixed in.

Through at least April 24, readings could average generally below normal to near normal with a few warmer than normal days across the Middle Atlantic and southern New England regions. Support on the extended guidance for a return of warmer than normal conditions for the closing days of April has increased. Some of the guidance shows the potential for much above normal temperatures to develop.
 
Past cases that saw the NAO average -0.750 or below during April 1-5 with warmth in the East, as occurred this month, saw the development of a trough in the East after April 10. That trough typically persisted in the means for 1-2 weeks.

Looking ahead to May, 73% of cases that saw one or more days where the NAO fell to -1.000 or below during April 1-10, 1950-2019, as was the case this April, wound up with a warmer than normal May. In addition, two-thirds of cases that saw the MJO reach Phase 8 at an amplitude of 2.000 or above during the April 5-20 period, as happened this month, saw a warmer than normal May.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.8°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.6°C for the week centered around April 8. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.72°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.58°C. Neutral and occasionally warm ENSO conditions will likely prevail through at least the end of April.

The SOI was -18.53 today.

Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +1.531.

On April 16, the MJO was in Phase 1 at an amplitude of 1.300 (RMM). The April 15-adjusted amplitude was 1.192.

February 2020 saw the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly increase by more than 0.50°C. Such a development has typically occurred before a warmer than normal summer. In all such cases, a warmer than normal spring was followed by a warmer than normal summer. Therefore, a warmer than normal summer is currently more likely than not. Should Spring wind up warmer than normal, a warm or even hot summer will be very likely.

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 58% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal April. April will likely finish with a mean temperature near 52.5°.

 

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