Cfa Posted April 2, 2020 Share Posted April 2, 2020 Leaf out slowed a bit but I see quite a few trees with small leaves and buds popping open on others and we’re still weeks ahead of schedule. No freeze here since Mar 16, and even that wasn’t a real freeze, low was 32. Have to go all the way back to Mar 8 for anything sub freezing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycwinter Posted April 2, 2020 Share Posted April 2, 2020 turning into a gloomy blustery day ... i love it!~!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted April 2, 2020 Share Posted April 2, 2020 18 minutes ago, nycwinter said: turning into a gloomy blustery day ... i love it!~!! gloomy? It's clear out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted April 2, 2020 Share Posted April 2, 2020 Winds coming in above guidance with the big offshore storm. Looks like we get some rain on Friday as the storm loops back toward the coast. Kennedy Intl FAIR 48 31 51 NW29G40 29 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dWave Posted April 2, 2020 Share Posted April 2, 2020 33 minutes ago, Cfa said: Leaf out slowed a bit but I see quite a few trees with small leaves and buds popping open on others and we’re still weeks ahead of schedule. No freeze here since Mar 16, and even that wasn’t a real freeze, low was 32. Have to go all the way back to Mar 8 for anything sub freezing. The flowering trees are really ahead of schedule. Alot of Cherry blossoms have peaked and many have already tranistioned to (small) green leaves. Last freeze here was Mar 1, which is kinda crazy. The freezes even during the winter were sporadic anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted April 2, 2020 Share Posted April 2, 2020 as far as getting another freezing morning its not over but its over...NYC had 48 days with a minimum at least 32 or lower... lowest amount of minimums 32 or lower and consecutive... 2011-12.....37 2015-16.....46 2001-02.....47 2019-20.....48 2016-17.....49 1997-98.....49 consecutive days... 1997-98.....4 2011-12.....5 2019-20.....6 1990-91.....8 1952-53.....8 1972-73.....9 1948-49.....9 1920-21.....9 NYC got only three days with a maximum 32 or lower and only one consecutive day... lowest amount of days with a max 32 or lower... 1952-53.....2 1997-98.....3 2001-02.....3 2019-20.....3 1931-32.....5 2007-08.....6 2011-12.....6 consecutive days max 32 or lower... 1952-53.....1 1990-91.....1 2019-20.....1 2011-12.....2 ….plus 13 other years... lowest max..... 1952-53.....31 1997-98.....29 1952-53.....29 1974-75.....27 1992-93.....27 2011-12.....27 1998-99.....25 2000-01.....25 2019-20.....25 lowest winter minimum..... 2001-02.....19 1974-75.....15 1931-32.....15 2019-20.....14 2016-17.....14 2005-06.....14 2000-01.....14 1997-98.....14 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted April 2, 2020 Share Posted April 2, 2020 All-time record high pressure at1070 mb in Northern Canada today. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted April 2, 2020 Share Posted April 2, 2020 That offshore system has been showing some hybrid characteristics over the last 30 hours or so, at times developing a ring of convection around a relatively clear eye-feature. Forecast phase diagrams foresee the warm core becoming a little deeper and more symmetrical as the storm retreats southward toward the relatively warm waters of the Gulf Stream. I doubt the NHC will acknowledge the potential for subtropical transition, but it's fun to watch as we wait for more unambiguous tropical threats. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted April 2, 2020 Author Share Posted April 2, 2020 A strong offshore storm will spread clouds into the region tonight into tomorrow. A period of steady rain and gusty winds is possible into tomorrow, especially on parts of Long Island. Showers could extend into and just west of the New York City Metro Area. The first five days of April will see somewhat below normal to near normal temperatures with the NAO below -1.000. Today's preliminary value was -1.541. That surpasses the previous daily record of -1.356, which was set in 1975. During the April 1-7, 1981-2019 period, the mean temperature was 49.3° for New York City and 50.5° for Philadelphia. During cases when the NAO was -0.75 or below, the respective mean temperatures for New York City and Philadelphia were 47.9° and 49.4°. However, the limited pool of cold air available to be tapped this year could result in a shorter-duration period of cool readings than is typically associated with such patterns. Cooler air could return near April 10. Afterward, there is uncertainty about the longer-term pattern evolution, especially as the NAO could remain predominantly negative through mid-month. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.8°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.5°C for the week centered around March 25. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.67°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.57°C. Neutral and occasionally warm ENSO conditions will likely prevail through at least the end of April. The SOI was -10.67 today. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +0.399. On April 1, the MJO was in Phase 4 at an amplitude of 1.181 (RMM). The March 31-adjusted amplitude was 1.578. February 2020 saw the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly increase by more than 0.50°C. Such a development has typically occurred before a warmer than normal summer. In all such cases, a warmer than normal spring was followed by a warmer than normal summer. Therefore, a warmer than normal summer is currently more likely than not. Should Spring wind up warmer than normal, a warm or even hot summer will be very likely. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted April 3, 2020 Share Posted April 3, 2020 The next 8 days are averaging 54degs., or about 4degs. AN. The next 17 days are averaging just about Normal, [53.0](46/60). 46* here at 7am. 50* by 11am. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted April 3, 2020 Share Posted April 3, 2020 Feels like an autumn day Beautiful Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted April 3, 2020 Share Posted April 3, 2020 Where the hell was this pattern in January ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted April 3, 2020 Share Posted April 3, 2020 1 hour ago, CIK62 said: The next 8 days are averaging 54degs., or about 4degs. AN. 46* here at 7am. Even with a -NAO we're plus 4....LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted April 3, 2020 Share Posted April 3, 2020 Getting some breaks of sun between the rain bands moving through. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted April 3, 2020 Share Posted April 3, 2020 2 hours ago, MJO812 said: Where the hell was this pattern in January ? chitty winters usually get the best patterns for snow before Dec 15th and after March 15th...1996-97 was bad but in early December and April 1st saw noreasters with marginal temperatures...in mid winter both times would have been big snowstorms... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted April 3, 2020 Share Posted April 3, 2020 It’s been the pattern since 2012 to get a big spring -NAO drop following a +NAO winter. 2012 1.17 0.42 1.27 0.47 -0.91 2013 0.35 -0.45 -1.61 0.69 0.57 2014 0.29 1.34 0.80 0.31 -0.92 2015 1.79 1.32 1.45 0.73 0.15 2016 0.12 1.58 0.73 0.38 -0.77 2017 0.48 1.00 0.74 1.73 -1.91 2018 1.44 1.58 -0.93 1.24 2.12 2019 0.59 0.29 1.23 0.47 -2.62 2020 1.34 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted April 3, 2020 Share Posted April 3, 2020 4 hours ago, Brian5671 said: Even with a -NAO we're plus 4....LOL “There is no global warming...it’s all a big hoax and a conspiracy, all lies”..... OK JB lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rclab Posted April 3, 2020 Share Posted April 3, 2020 16 minutes ago, snowman19 said: “There is no global warming...it’s all a big hoax and a conspiracy, all lies”..... OK JB lol Considering the need for a natural balance wouldn’t it be ironic if the far future result of global warming ( purely non probable, non scientific speculation ) ends up being a kilometer of ice over the spot where JB broadcasts. As always ...... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted April 4, 2020 Author Share Posted April 4, 2020 As the a strong ocean storm responsible for today's overcast and occasionally rainy conditions begins to move away from the region, milder conditions will develop tomorrow. Temperatures will likely return to the 60s early next week. Cooler air could return near April 10. Afterward, there is uncertainty about the longer-term pattern evolution, especially as the NAO could remain predominantly negative through mid-month. There is some ensemble support for the NAO to go positive after mid-month. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.8°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.5°C for the week centered around March 25. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.67°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.57°C. Neutral and occasionally warm ENSO conditions will likely prevail through at least the end of April. The SOI was -16.08 today. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -0.098. On April 2, the MJO was in Phase 5 at an amplitude of 1.331 (RMM). The April 1-adjusted amplitude was 1.185. February 2020 saw the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly increase by more than 0.50°C. Such a development has typically occurred before a warmer than normal summer. In all such cases, a warmer than normal spring was followed by a warmer than normal summer. Therefore, a warmer than normal summer is currently more likely than not. Should Spring wind up warmer than normal, a warm or even hot summer will be very likely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted April 4, 2020 Share Posted April 4, 2020 The next 8 days are averaging 54degs., or about 4degs. AN. The next 17 days are averaging 53degs.(46/60), or just Normal. 48* here at 7am., mean looking clouds, drizzle. 55* by Noon. Peaked at 56* at 12:30pm and varied down to 51* at 6pm. 48* by 10pm. 49* at 11am. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted April 4, 2020 Share Posted April 4, 2020 Good to see the sun come out with temperatures near 60 this afternoon. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted April 4, 2020 Share Posted April 4, 2020 Nice blue skies air seems very clean 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted April 4, 2020 Share Posted April 4, 2020 Nice trough on the Euro for the end of next week with another trough waiting in the wings. Love cool Aprils 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dWave Posted April 4, 2020 Share Posted April 4, 2020 59, sun feel great. 60s just a little further from the Sound Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted April 4, 2020 Share Posted April 4, 2020 Got to love the -nao and -epo showing up for April 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted April 4, 2020 Share Posted April 4, 2020 2 hours ago, MJO812 said: Nice trough on the Euro for the end of next week with another trough waiting in the wings. Love cool Aprils No no no, this April needs to be 70 every day. Nunathis backdoor cool and cloudy with occasional drizzles stuff, we need to be outside and away from the people in the house and it needs to be nice. Yard cleanup and garden buildout happen over the next few days then more projects, bike rides and golf at the local course and it needs to be nice. Heck, we can't work or go places so it needs to be nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycwinter Posted April 4, 2020 Share Posted April 4, 2020 3 hours ago, MJO812 said: Nice trough on the Euro for the end of next week with another trough waiting in the wings. Love cool Aprils i prefer cooler summers who the heck wants 95 degree heat jun-august.. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cfa Posted April 4, 2020 Share Posted April 4, 2020 8 minutes ago, nycwinter said: i prefer cooler summers who the heck wants 95 degree heat jun-august.. Me. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted April 4, 2020 Share Posted April 4, 2020 3 hours ago, MJO812 said: Nice trough on the Euro for the end of next week with another trough waiting in the wings. Love cool Aprils I hate you 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rclab Posted April 4, 2020 Share Posted April 4, 2020 26 minutes ago, psv88 said: I hate you The sentiment could be reversed when, on a dog day in August, the sea breeze fails to reach Coney Island. As always ..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now