April 2020

[donsutherland1]

Following yesterday's fierce storm, more tranquil weather returned. The temperature topped out in the upper 50s and lower 60s across the region.

Through at least April 24, readings could average generally below normal to near normal with a few warmer than normal days across the Middle Atlantic and southern New England regions. Some of the extended guidance shows the return of warmer conditions for the closing days of April.

Past cases that saw the NAO average -0.750 or below during April 1-5 with warmth in the East, as occurred this month, saw the development of a trough in the East after April 10. That trough typically persisted in the means for 1-2 weeks.

Looking ahead to May, 73% of cases that saw one or more days where the NAO fell to -1.000 or below during April 1-10, 1950-2019, as was the case this April, wound up with a warmer than normal May. In addition, two-thirds of cases that saw the MJO reach Phase 8 at an amplitude of 2.000 or above during the April 5-20 period, as happened this month, saw a warmer than normal May.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.8°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.6°C for the week centered around April 8. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.72°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.58°C. Neutral and occasionally warm ENSO conditions will likely prevail through at least the end of April.

The SOI was +7.21 today.

Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +1.658.

On April 13, the MJO was in Phase 1 at an amplitude of 1.589 (RMM). The April 12-adjusted amplitude was 1.911.

February 2020 saw the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly increase by more than 0.50°C. Such a development has typically occurred before a warmer than normal summer. In all such cases, a warmer than normal spring was followed by a warmer than normal summer. Therefore, a warmer than normal summer is currently more likely than not. Should Spring wind up warmer than normal, a warm or even hot summer will be very likely.

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 56% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal April. April will likely finish with a mean temperature near 52.5°.

 

[donsutherland1]

3 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

could have some snow even to the coast this week

I tend to doubt it, at least as far as the coastal areas or nearby regions are concerned.

[Allsnow]

Lol. Are warmest temperature will probably be in January then in April this year lol

[gravitylover]

It's snowing 

[CIK62]

The next 8 days are averaging 49degs., or 4.5degs. BN.

Month to date is  +2.2[52.5].          Should be    -0.2[51.3] by the 23rd.

43* here at 7am.     42* at 8am.      48* by 1pm.     53* by 3pm.

[MJO812]

13 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

I tend to doubt it, at least as far as the coastal areas or nearby regions are concerned.

Upstate NY has a chance

[Allsnow]

Looks like a nice snowstorm from Chicago to Sne Friday. Lolz at our climo now. November and April cold/snowy 

[MJO812]

7 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Looks like a nice snowstorm from Chicago to Sne Friday. Lolz at our climo now. November and April cold/snowy 

It's a shame this couldn't shift further south. We can never get lucky down here.

[Allsnow]

Just now, MJO812 said:

It's a shame this couldn't shift further south. Wr can never get lucky down here.

We are getting slapped with climo reality after all those years with above avg snow.

[MJO812]

2 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

We are getting slapped with climo reality after all those years with above avg snow.

Well there is always next winter 

[psv88]

8 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Looks like a nice snowstorm from Chicago to Sne Friday. Lolz at our climo now. November and April cold/snowy 

How much snow are we getting?

[Allsnow]

1 minute ago, psv88 said:

How much snow are we getting?

2 feet in NJ and snow to rain on Long Island with a slushy coating. 

[MJO812]

Just now, Allsnow said:

2 feet in NJ and snow to rain on Long Island with a slushy coating. 

My fiancee is really thinking about moving to New Hampshire. She has been there many times.

We might go up there this summer and see about houses.

[donsutherland1]

Morning thoughts...

1. A dense area of clouds that stretches from eastern North Carolina to southeastern New Hampshire will shift eastward this morning leading to sunshine in the New York Metro Area and later Long Island.

2. The region is now in a period where readings will generally average somewhat below normal to near normal with perhaps a few milder days.

3. Late this week and early this weekend, a storm coming out of the Plains States will likely spread a cold rain to coastal areas. Interior parts of Pennsylvania, northwestern New Jersey, along with central New York State, and central New England could see at least some snow.

4. There continues to be growing support in the long-range for a warmer pattern to develop in the closing days of April.

[Allsnow]

@Brian5671 -nao with a -epo in eastern Ak 

[Allsnow]

3 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

My fiancee is really thinking about moving to New Hampshire. She has been there many times.

We might go up there this summer and see about houses.

I have never been to New Hampshire but Massachusetts and Maine are beautiful. I spent a weekend in Booth Bay on the coast of Maine and it was incredible.

[rclab]

10 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

My fiancee is really thinking about moving to New Hampshire. She has been there many times.

We might go up there this summer and see about houses.

Follow both your dreams, Anthony. But for the too’s I would do the same. Too old, too tired, too late and too attached to my U.H.I. As always .....

[gravitylover]

NH is at the top of the list for landing spots when we can get out of NY. Big problem now could be that the real estate market takes a dump when this is over and our house isn't worth what it was making that move too difficult. 

[dmillz25]

12 hours ago, Allsnow said:

Lol. Are warmest temperature will probably be in January then in April this year lol

What was the max high in Jan?

[bluewave]

3 minutes ago, dmillz25 said:

What was the max high in Jan?

70 degrees. So a degree warmer than the first half of April.

Monthly Highest Max Temperature for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Year	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Annual
2020	70	62	80	69	M	M	M	M	M	M	M	M	80

[uncle W]

1 hour ago, Allsnow said:

@Brian5671 -nao with a -epo in eastern Ak 

you could have bet the house April was going to be cool when we wanted it warm...1918-19 which was one of the least snowy and mild winters on record had a cold spell the end of April...a couple of Aprils in the mid 1960's did not get a warm day until the last few days in the month....it could have been 1965 or 66...nao finally went positive today...that's a good sign... 

[winterwx21]

1 hour ago, Allsnow said:

We are getting slapped with climo reality after all those years with above avg snow.

Yeah the run that we had from winters 2002-2003 to 2017-2018 was amazing. Well above average snowfall in 11 of those 16 winters, and only 3 of them were below average. As you said we're due for a period of climo reality. Things tend to average out. I think next winter will really tell the story if we're out of the great snow cycle. It would be hard to argue that we're not out of the snowy cycle if we have a 3rd year in a row of below average, but if we bounce back the snowy cycle will still be intact.

[winterwx21]

36 minutes ago, uncle W said:

you could have bet the house April was going to be cool when we wanted it warm...1918-19 which was one of the least snowy and mild winters on record had a cold spell the end of April...a couple of Aprils in the mid 1960's did not get a warm day until the last few days in the month....it could have been 1965 or 66...nao finally went positive today...that's a good sign... 

At least this April has been mild so far. Not to the extreme of most other months, but we are at least a couple degrees above normal to this point. It looks as if we're just gonna have 4 days of below normal temps now, and then we should get back close to normal for sunday into early next week. And as Don said, there are signs of above normal temps for late April. So overall I don't think we're looking at a cool April this year. Will likely end up slightly warmer than normal, which is an improvement from recent Aprils.

[495weatherguy]

2 minutes ago, winterwx21 said:

At least this April has been mild so far. Not to the extreme of most other months, but we are at least a couple degrees above normal to this point. It looks as if we're just gonna have 4 days of below normal temps now, and then we should get back close to normal for sunday into early next week. And as Don said, there are signs of above normal temps for late April. So overall I don't think we're looking at a cool April this year. Will likely end up slightly warmer than normal, which is an improvement from recent Aprils.

True---wonder if the recently sub-optimal weather will help keep people inside and help prevent the spread of the disease

[Brian5671]

20 minutes ago, winterwx21 said:

At least this April has been mild so far. Not to the extreme of most other months, but we are at least a couple degrees above normal to this point. It looks as if we're just gonna have 4 days of below normal temps now, and then we should get back close to normal for sunday into early next week. And as Don said, there are signs of above normal temps for late April. So overall I don't think we're looking at a cool April this year. Will likely end up slightly warmer than normal, which is an improvement from recent Aprils.

alot more sunny days this year vs last.   It's cool, but if the sun's out it feels warmer and it does alot for the pysche during these trying times.

[Allsnow]

3 hours ago, uncle W said:

you could have bet the house April was going to be cool when we wanted it warm...1918-19 which was one of the least snowy and mild winters on record had a cold spell the end of April...a couple of Aprils in the mid 1960's did not get a warm day until the last few days in the month....it could have been 1965 or 66...nao finally went positive today...that's a good sign... 

Yeah, I think a few of us (yourself included) were talking once the uber PV broke down it would lead to a period of blocking. It was a slam dunk prediction back in February.

[Allsnow]

3 hours ago, winterwx21 said:

At least this April has been mild so far. Not to the extreme of most other months, but we are at least a couple degrees above normal to this point. It looks as if we're just gonna have 4 days of below normal temps now, and then we should get back close to normal for sunday into early next week. And as Don said, there are signs of above normal temps for late April. So overall I don't think we're looking at a cool April this year. Will likely end up slightly warmer than normal, which is an improvement from recent Aprils.

Yeah, usually we bounce back well after a  record below avg snowfall winter. Even if we don’t, it can’t get much worst then last winter. I didn’t plow snow once  which is a first for me since I started in 2002. That hasn’t happened locally since 97-98.

[uncle W]

4 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Yeah, usually we bounce back well after a  record below avg snowfall winter. Even if we don’t, it can’t get much worst then last winter. I didn’t plow snow once  which is a first for me since I started in 2002. That hasn’t happened locally since 97-98.

the best snowfall imby was in early December...3.5" accumulated mostly on the grass and cars...I did not stick to the sidewalk much so I didn't shovel...I didn't shovel all winter...

[Allsnow]

Just now, uncle W said:

the best snowfall imby was in early December...3.5" accumulated mostly on the grass and cars...I did not stick to the sidewalk much so I didn't shovel...I didn't shovel all winter...

Yeah, I got a similar total here in Metuchen. I went way to high for our area that storm. The surface temps were a big issue and lack of intense banding. Northern Nj into SNE got most of their seasonal snowfall in that storm. At the time I wasn’t that bummed because it was so early in the winter. Now looking back it was are only missed opportunity of the winter lol

[snowman19]

23 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

could have some snow even to the coast this week

Stop listening to Joe Bastardi lol