April 2020

[doncat]

Mesonet near me gusted to 53 mph.

[dWave]

Suns out, 66 dewpt 65

[lee59]

47 minutes ago, bluewave said:

You have to remember that the the open spaces like airports and shorelines are better representations of the actual peak wind gusts than your local neighborhood Davis sensor. Notice how many reports of downed trees there were across the entire area that weren’t near airports or the shoreline. This is telling you that the peak winds in local neighborhoods were realized near the treetop level. So the trees we’re blocking many home sensors from measuring the actual neighborhood peak gusts. 

Your absolutely correct. My anemometer is at what the weather bureau wants, 33 feet. However there is nothing I can do about taller structures such as trees, in the neighborhood.

[Rtd208]

LOL!

 

[TriPol]

3 minutes ago, Rtd208 said:

LOL!

 

If this verifies, I will never complain about this winter again.

[Rtd208]

Just now, TriPol said:

If this verifies, I will never complain about this winter again.

Keep complaining. 

[donsutherland1]

A rapidly deepening storm brought high winds and heavy rain to the region today. With 1.92", New York City had its largest precipitation amount since September 25, 2019 when 1.95" precipitation was recorded.

In the wake of the intense storm, somewhat cooler air will return to the region. Through at least April 24, readings could average generally below normal to near normal with a few warmer than normal days across the Middle Atlantic and southern New England regions.

Past cases that saw the NAO average -0.750 or below during April 1-5 with warmth in the East, as occurred this month, saw the development of a trough in the East after April 10. That trough typically persisted in the means for 1-2 weeks.

Looking ahead to May, 73% of cases that saw one or more days where the NAO fell to -1.000 or below during April 1-10, 1950-2019, as was the case this April, wound up with a warmer than normal May. In addition, two-thirds of cases that saw the MJO reach Phase 8 at an amplitude of 2.000 or above during the April 5-20 period, as happened this month, saw a warmer than normal May.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.8°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.6°C for the week centered around April 8. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.72°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.58°C. Neutral and occasionally warm ENSO conditions will likely prevail through at least the end of April.

The SOI was +16.65 today.

Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +1.178.

On April 12, the MJO was in Phase 8 at an amplitude of 1.917 (RMM). The April 11-adjusted amplitude was 2.179.

February 2020 saw the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly increase by more than 0.50°C. Such a development has typically occurred before a warmer than normal summer. In all such cases, a warmer than normal spring was followed by a warmer than normal summer. Therefore, a warmer than normal summer is currently more likely than not. Should Spring wind up warmer than normal, a warm or even hot summer will be very likely.

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 56% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal April. April will likely finish with a mean temperature near 52.5°.

 

[SRRTA22]

All that tracking the svr in dixie to SC yesterday into this am has got me in severe mode. Little bit bummed that storms were meh up this way but it is what it is. Not enough time in the warm sector. Makes you wonder what would've popped off if we had a nice warm sector. 

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

1 minute ago, SRRTA22 said:

All that tracking the svr in dixie into SC yesterday into this am has got me in severe mode. Little bit bummed that storms were meh up this way but it is what it is. Not enough time in the warm sector. Makes you wonder what would've popped off if we had a nice warm sector. 

That would have been incredible. But there is a reason that almost never happens here. We get the mid level winds, but not the instability, we get the instability but not the winds. Those two come together most often in the plains 

[JerseyWx]

The main story here was the rain, which was extremely heavy at times.  2.3" for the day.

[JerseyWx]

5 hours ago, bluewave said:

So far the main impact on temperatures have been muted highs. This is the first April 1-13 at Newark not to reach 70 since 2009.

Time Series Summary for Newark Area, NJ (ThreadEx)
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Ending Date	Highest Max Temperature Apr 1 to Apr 13	Missing Count
2020-04-13	69	1
2019-04-13	80	0
2018-04-13	84	0
2017-04-13	84	0
2016-04-13	80	0
2015-04-13	71	0
2014-04-13	83	0
2013-04-13	85	0
2012-04-13	71	0
2011-04-13	87	0
2010-04-13	92	0
2009-04-13	68	0

And as you can see most years hit 80 by now.  No chance of that for awhile.

[Santa Claus]

I was expecting a sharper, more brisk cold front.  It has been breezy and mild since the rain cleared and beautiful outside at 10 pm.

[CIK62]

The next 8 days are averaging 49.0degs., or 4degs. BN.

Month to date is +2.4[52.5].          Should be 0.0[51.2](Normal) by the 22nd.

The remainder of the month is averaging 53degs.(46/60), or about 2degs. BN.         So April should end very near Normal, with a negative bias.

48* here at 6am.        51* at 11am.        Got to 61* around 4pm.            51* at 6pm.

[bluewave]

11 hours ago, JerseyWx said:

And as you can see most years hit 80 by now.  No chance of that for awhile.

Yeah, this has been a very impressive -NAO/-EPO pattern for April. Maybe we can sneak in a stray 70 over the next 10 days. But we won’t see any 80 degree heat until this pattern relaxes.

 

[donsutherland1]

Morning thoughts...

1. Following yesterday's daily record 1.92" precipitation in Central Park (old record: 1.26", 1920), sunshine has returned. The high temperature will likely top out in the middle and upper 50s in contrast to yesterday's late day high of 67.

2. This morning record cold covered parts of the Plains States. Records included: Colorado Springs: 7 (old record: 8, 1933); Denver: 11 (old record: 15, 1933); Grand Forks, ND: 4 (old record: 8, 1950); Lincoln, NE: 16 (tied record set in 1950); North Platte, NE: 15 (tied record set in 1928); Rapid City: 5 (old record: 13, 2018); and, Rochester, MN: 14 (old record: 18, 1962).

3. Through the next 7-10 days, a generally cooler than normal pattern with much below normal temperatures centered over the Plains States will likely prevail. In the Middle Atlantic and southern New England regions, readings will generally be somewhat below normal to near normal with a few milder days.

4. A warmer pattern could begin to develop during the closing days of April.

[SnoSki14]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

Yeah, this has been a very impressive -NAO/-EPO pattern for April. Maybe we can sneak in a stray 70 over the next 10 days. But we won’t see any 80 degree heat until this pattern relaxes.

We'll probably jump right into summer when the pattern flips. 

[bluewave]

54 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

We'll probably jump right into summer when the pattern flips. 

The wild card is how long the -NAO persists. The -NAO has suppressed the record heat to our south during recent springs. All-time April record heat has occurred around the GOM this month.

 

[uncle W]

lasted neg nao forecast isn't as bullish today but the ao forecast is more negative...the sub normal maximums could continue another week or so...

[cleetussnow]

In the world of what-ifs...a NA pattern set up like it is, combined with a warm gulf, if it happened in met winter would set the stage for a bomb somewhere in the MA, probably south of us tho with an NAO as many SDs as strong.  

 

[MJO812]

Another crappy weekend coming up. Euro has temps in the mid to upper 30s even for the coast with rain.

[JackMalarchey]

17 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Another crappy weekend coming up. Euro has temps in the mid to upper 30s even for the coast with rain.

Its probably going to be white rain if it’s showing upper 30’s and the low scoots to our south. Watch for those suburbs like mahopac and Brewster for some accumulating snow Friday night

[LibertyBell]

On 4/12/2020 at 7:27 PM, psv88 said:

He’s off his rocker. I could see a few gusts out by great gull island to 72/73, that’s high end. I think Islip gusts to 62-63, and JFK the same. Low 60s. 

we had winds in the 50s lol.  I'd say the chances for snow on Long Island are somewhat higher lol.  Looks like both the Jersey Shore and MA had higher gusts than Long Island did.

 

82 on Long Beach Island, NJ and 80 on the MA coast, highest for Long Island was 68 out at Orient

 

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, cleetussnow said:

In the world of what-ifs...a NA pattern set up like it is, combined with a warm gulf, if it happened in met winter would set the stage for a bomb somewhere in the MA, probably south of us tho with an NAO as many SDs as strong.  

 

it would probably be suppressed with our luck

 

[LibertyBell]

4 hours ago, uncle W said:

lasted neg nao forecast isn't as bullish today but the ao forecast is more negative...the sub normal maximums could continue another week or so...

Yes, probably until the end of next week, then we warm up big time nationwide

[LibertyBell]

4 hours ago, bluewave said:

The wild card is how long the -NAO persists. The -NAO has suppressed the record heat to our south during recent springs. All-time April record heat has occurred around the GOM this month.

 

why is the GOM so warm this year?

 

[LibertyBell]

19 hours ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

That would have been incredible. But there is a reason that almost never happens here. We get the mid level winds, but not the instability, we get the instability but not the winds. Those two come together most often in the plains 

no chance of severe weather on long island with southerly winds in April

 

[LibertyBell]

5 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

Morning thoughts...

1. Following yesterday's daily record 1.92" precipitation in Central Park (old record: 1.26", 1920), sunshine has returned. The high temperature will likely top out in the middle and upper 50s in contrast to yesterday's late day high of 67.

2. This morning record cold covered parts of the Plains States. Records included: Colorado Springs: 7 (old record: 8, 1933); Denver: 11 (old record: 15, 1933); Grand Forks, ND: 4 (old record: 8, 1950); Lincoln, NE: 16 (tied record set in 1950); North Platte, NE: 15 (tied record set in 1928); Rapid City: 5 (old record: 13, 2018); and, Rochester, MN: 14 (old record: 18, 1962).

3. Through the next 7-10 days, a generally cooler than normal pattern with much below normal temperatures centered over the Plains States will likely prevail. In the Middle Atlantic and southern New England regions, readings will generally be somewhat below normal to near normal with a few milder days.

4. A warmer pattern could begin to develop during the closing days of April.

could have some snow even to the coast this week

[bluewave]

23 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

why is the GOM so warm this year?

 

Their mid March-April seems to be a version of what the Midwest experienced in March 2012.

 

[dmillz25]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

Their mid March-April seems to be a version of what the Midwest experienced in March 2012.

 

That SE ridge man. Family in DR are complaining how hot it is already so soon

[Rtd208]

8 minutes ago, dmillz25 said:

That SE ridge man. Family in DR are complaining how hot it is already so soon

Once we get rid of this cooler pattern we are probably going to roast. I think a very hot summer is in our future.