Rtd208 Posted April 12, 2020 Share Posted April 12, 2020 Temp has really jumped up here. Current temp 66 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted April 12, 2020 Share Posted April 12, 2020 2 hours ago, CIK62 said: JB says 100mph wind gusts on LI. Snow for Tues night? It first appeared two weeks ago for around the 16th., then disappeared and reappeared on some runs. What a March we could have had. He’s off his rocker. I could see a few gusts out by great gull island to 72/73, that’s high end. I think Islip gusts to 62-63, and JFK the same. Low 60s. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted April 12, 2020 Author Share Posted April 12, 2020 Today saw partly cloudy skies with high temperatures reaching the upper 50s and lower 60s. Clouds will increase tonight. Overnight, a rapidly deepening storm will track toward the Great Lakes. By tomorrow night, the storm could have a central pressure under 970 mb as it pushes through Quebec. Before then, this storm will spread periods of moderate to heavy rain into the region tonight into tomorrow. Rainfall amounts will likely total 0.75"-1.75" with some locally higher amounts in excess of 2.00". Strong winds with gusts past 65 mph are likely tomorrow. The potential also exists for some strong to possibly severe thunderstorms. Colder air should return for Tuesday. This is a genuinely cold air mass. Earlier today, the temperature fell to -3° in Great Falls. The only other times the temperature fell below zero this late in the season was April 20 (-1°) and April 22 (-8°) in 2008. Through at least April 24, readings could average generally below normal to near normal with a few warmer than normal days across the Middle Atlantic and southern New England regions. Sunday and Monday are among the days that could see temperatures reach above normal levels. The Plains States will likely experience much colder than normal readings. The potential exists for warming after April 24. Past cases that saw the NAO average -0.750 or below during April 1-5 with warmth in the East, as occurred this month, saw the development of a trough in the East after April 10. That trough typically persisted in the means for 1-2 weeks. Looking ahead to May, 73% of cases that saw one or more days where the NAO fell to -1.000 or below during April 1-10, 1950-2019, as was the case this April, wound up with a warmer than normal May. In addition, two-thirds of cases that saw the MJO reach Phase 8 at an amplitude of 2.000 or above during the April 5-20 period, as happened this month, saw a warmer than normal May. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.8°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.6°C for the week centered around April 1. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.75°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.67°C. Neutral and occasionally warm ENSO conditions will likely prevail through at least the end of April. The SOI was +15.50 today. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +0.695. On April 11, the MJO was in Phase 8 at an amplitude of 2.179 (RMM). The April 10-adjusted amplitude was 2.066. February 2020 saw the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly increase by more than 0.50°C. Such a development has typically occurred before a warmer than normal summer. In all such cases, a warmer than normal spring was followed by a warmer than normal summer. Therefore, a warmer than normal summer is currently more likely than not. Should Spring wind up warmer than normal, a warm or even hot summer will be very likely. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 55% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal April. April will likely finish with a mean temperature near 52.5°. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted April 13, 2020 Share Posted April 13, 2020 2 hours ago, CIK62 said: JB says 100mph wind gusts on LI. Snow for Tues night? It first appeared two weeks ago for around the 16th., then disappeared and reappeared on some runs. What a March we could have had. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SRRTA22 Posted April 13, 2020 Share Posted April 13, 2020 Severe threat is trending legit for parts of PA/MD. Concerning look if theres clearing in that area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted April 13, 2020 Share Posted April 13, 2020 35 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: Lol. This forum will laugh at any snow threat but get excited for advisory winds lol 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted April 13, 2020 Share Posted April 13, 2020 20 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Lol. This forum will laugh at any snow threat but get excited for advisory winds lol Brother, more than half the board will see warning level winds. I am sorry you live in a poor area for wind. Take a drive out to the island if you want to see a wind event... 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JackMalarchey Posted April 13, 2020 Share Posted April 13, 2020 Nam 18z Wednesday am 1 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JustinRP37 Posted April 13, 2020 Share Posted April 13, 2020 25 minutes ago, JackMalarchey said: Nam 18z Wednesday am Take a look at the temperature profiles. White rain if that. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted April 13, 2020 Share Posted April 13, 2020 1 hour ago, psv88 said: Brother, more than half the board will see warning level winds. I am sorry you live in a poor area for wind. Take a drive out to the island if you want to see a wind event... I fully expect you to be disappointed by 5pm tomorrow. This has meh written all over it. People expecting march 2010 is laughable 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted April 13, 2020 Share Posted April 13, 2020 4 minutes ago, Allsnow said: I fully expect you to be disappointed by 5pm tomorrow. This has meh written all over it. People expecting march 2010 is laughable legit QLCS under 100kts at 900mb, not sure I agree with you. Those who get under this won’t meh 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted April 13, 2020 Share Posted April 13, 2020 2 hours ago, Allsnow said: Lol. This forum will laugh at any snow threat but get excited for advisory winds lol What model shows advisory winds ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted April 13, 2020 Share Posted April 13, 2020 48 minutes ago, JustinRP37 said: Take a look at the temperature profiles. White rain if that. Its mid April Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted April 13, 2020 Share Posted April 13, 2020 3k Nam has 70 + mph wind gusts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted April 13, 2020 Share Posted April 13, 2020 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SRRTA22 Posted April 13, 2020 Share Posted April 13, 2020 18 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: Yeah Ive been watching the trends in that area for the last day or so. Concerning look in that area down into the Delmarva region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted April 13, 2020 Share Posted April 13, 2020 59 minutes ago, Allsnow said: I fully expect you to be disappointed by 5pm tomorrow. This has meh written all over it. People expecting march 2010 is laughable Agree, for NJ away from the coast. The wind events have been verifying well out here lately, as they usually do. Sorry its not the same for you in NJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted April 13, 2020 Share Posted April 13, 2020 11 minutes ago, psv88 said: Agree, for NJ away from the coast. The wind events have been verifying well out here lately, as they usually do. Sorry its not the same for you in NJ. You can have the wind, we’ll take the tornado threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted April 13, 2020 Share Posted April 13, 2020 1 hour ago, Allsnow said: I fully expect you to be disappointed by 5pm tomorrow. This has meh written all over it. People expecting march 2010 is laughable Where's your evidence to back this up? 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted April 13, 2020 Share Posted April 13, 2020 https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted April 13, 2020 Share Posted April 13, 2020 The next 8 days are averaging 51degs., or 2degs. BN. Month to date is +1.9[51.8]. Should be about +0.4[51.5] by the 21st. 51* here at 6am, rain. 53* by 9am. 26/36 mph at JFK by 8am. 31/44 mph at 9am. 36/51 mph at 10am. 30/47 mph at 11am. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted April 13, 2020 Share Posted April 13, 2020 Easily gusting to 40-50 mph at the moment Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted April 13, 2020 Share Posted April 13, 2020 Serious winds blowing here...impressed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted April 13, 2020 Share Posted April 13, 2020 1 minute ago, Animal said: Serious winds blowing here...impressed You have some elevation which helps with this event. I would love to take obs on top of the Nordstrom tower at 1550’. Could see 100mph gusts up there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted April 13, 2020 Share Posted April 13, 2020 1 minute ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said: You have some elevation which helps with this event. I would love to take obs on top of the Nordstrom tower at 1550’. Could see 100mph gusts up there All I hear is a slow roar...with an increase every 2-3 minutes with a loud push. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted April 13, 2020 Share Posted April 13, 2020 Tree tops are swaying. really impressed. Best wind event in a long time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted April 13, 2020 Share Posted April 13, 2020 Winds are starting to pick up here in Brooklyn Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted April 13, 2020 Share Posted April 13, 2020 6 minutes ago, Animal said: Tree tops are swaying. really impressed. Best wind event in a long time Where are You Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted April 13, 2020 Share Posted April 13, 2020 Picked up 0.63" of rain so far today. Current temp 58 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted April 13, 2020 Share Posted April 13, 2020 8 minutes ago, qg_omega said: Where are You Highland Lakes Nj ne Sussex country NJ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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