the_other_guy Posted April 28, 2020 Share Posted April 28, 2020 5 hours ago, dmillz25 said: I might be the exception but I’m enjoying this weather. I’ll take above average temps in June I think the raw weather is really getting to people because of the pandemic. At this time people need sunshine and warmth for mental reasons. That hasn’t happened 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted April 28, 2020 Share Posted April 28, 2020 Right back to our default -EPO pattern since 2013. Just goes to show how unusual the strong winter +EPO was for this era. Occasionally the -EPO becomes strong enough to flatten out the SE Ridge. This is when we get the odd cold departure month. This EPO reversal returned the PDO back to positive territory after a dip negative. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted April 28, 2020 Share Posted April 28, 2020 On 4/26/2020 at 10:23 AM, SACRUS said: A week away but its currently looking that with enough sunshine next Sun (5/3) and/or Mon (5/4) could see the warmest temps of the season before a return to cooler weather into the 5th. Not betting on it but models hinting brief warm up as transient ridging moves through ahead of the next trough. Overall it does look like a slower transition away from the sustained troughing/cooler weather we've had since around Easter. Somewhat reminiscent of 2008 (so far). Still think (Sunday 5/3) could yield the warmest temps of the spring so far which isnt much a feat. Beyond there by 5/5 back to the cool/wet. Perhaps as we get into the 5/13 range things may shift a bit. 2008 migrated into a very hot first week of June. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted April 28, 2020 Share Posted April 28, 2020 Lol 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted April 28, 2020 Share Posted April 28, 2020 46 minutes ago, SACRUS said: Still think (Sunday 5/3) could yield the warmest temps of the spring so far which isnt much a feat. Beyond there by 5/5 back to the cool/wet. Perhaps as we get into the 5/13 range things may shift a bit. 2008 migrated into a very hot first week of June. 2008 had its hottest period the beginning of June...the rest of the summer was benign...it hit 77 in March this year...I think it stays below that temp... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted April 28, 2020 Share Posted April 28, 2020 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted April 28, 2020 Share Posted April 28, 2020 3 hours ago, SACRUS said: Still think (Sunday 5/3) could yield the warmest temps of the spring so far which isnt much a feat. Beyond there by 5/5 back to the cool/wet. Perhaps as we get into the 5/13 range things may shift a bit. 2008 migrated into a very hot first week of June. Agreed though I'm not sure it'll surpass 77F. I don't see anything that says prolonged warm pattern. If anything things get more anomalous by May 10 & beyond as we see more -EPO influence and +PNA. Some rare 30s for lows wouldn't be shocking this May. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted April 28, 2020 Share Posted April 28, 2020 7 hours ago, Cfa said: If it was sunny and dry I wouldn’t really care about it being BN, but I just don’t see how anyone can enjoy this extended dreariness. It’s as if we no longer get those extended stretches of 60’s/70’s with sunshine and low humidity. We just instantly go from Seattle to Houston with no adjustment period. As soon as the long range models a few weeks ago started showing the trough over the Maritimes and a -NAO develop, the writing was in bright red on the wall for this month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JakkelWx Posted April 28, 2020 Share Posted April 28, 2020 1 hour ago, SnoSki14 said: Agreed though I'm not sure it'll surpass 77F. I don't see anything that says prolonged warm pattern. If anything things get more anomalous by May 10 & beyond as we see more -EPO influence and +PNA. Some rare 30s for lows wouldn't be shocking this May. Doubt we see a really cold pattern from now on. Most of the cold supply up north has been exhausted. Thinking a few days if not maybe a week of below normal temps but still relatively "mild" due to climatology warming. No real sustained warming until after May 15th is a likely bet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
495weatherguy Posted April 28, 2020 Share Posted April 28, 2020 25 minutes ago, JakkelWx said: Doubt we see a really cold pattern from now on. Most of the cold supply up north has been exhausted. Thinking a few days if not maybe a week of below normal temps but still relatively "mild" due to climatology warming. No real sustained warming until after May 15th is a likely bet. I hope you are correct this weather is tiresome Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted April 28, 2020 Share Posted April 28, 2020 3 minutes ago, 495weatherguy said: I hope you are correct this weather is tiresome I'm loving it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dan76 Posted April 28, 2020 Share Posted April 28, 2020 10 minutes ago, MJO812 said: I'm loving it McDonald's? 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted April 28, 2020 Share Posted April 28, 2020 Current temp is 68 here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JerseyWx Posted April 28, 2020 Share Posted April 28, 2020 Perfect late April day. Clean air and beautiful blue skies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted April 28, 2020 Share Posted April 28, 2020 Beautiful day! Incredible. Great day for the fly over 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted April 28, 2020 Share Posted April 28, 2020 My goodness the air quality is soooo good now, pretty much the only good thing to have come from us all being (mostly) home for the last 6 weeks. I really want a string of nice days right now... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
495weatherguy Posted April 29, 2020 Share Posted April 29, 2020 5 hours ago, MJO812 said: I'm loving it today was beautiful I could do without yesterday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted April 29, 2020 Share Posted April 29, 2020 65 today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted April 29, 2020 Author Share Posted April 29, 2020 Today saw partly sunny skies and somewhat milder conditions. Temperatures topped out in the lower and middle 60s across the region. However, another storm will impact the region Thursday and Friday. In the wake of the system, warmer conditions will likely return this weekend. However, the milder conditions will likely be short-lived. Overall, the first 10 days of May could see readings average 1° to 3° below normal in the northern Middle Atlantic and southern New England regions. Some of the guidance is even colder. The probability of a cooler than normal May has continued to increase in recent days. The cooler scenario is supported by the latest EPS weekly guidance. The CFSv2 has been evolving toward a cooler scenario. The MJO was recently in Phase 1 at an amplitude in excess of 1.500 for two days. During the 1981-2019 period, the MJO was in Phase 1 at an amplitude of 1.500 or above for two or more years in six cases: 1988, 1990, 1995, 1997, 2005, and 2010. During May, three (50%) were cooler than normal; two (33%) were near normal; and, one (17%) was warmer than normal. Ultimately, two-thirds of those cases went on to have a warmer to much warmer than normal summer. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.2°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.6°C for the week centered around April 22. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.53°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.63°C. Neutral and occasionally warm ENSO conditions will likely prevail through mid-May. ENSO Region anomalies could begin a steady cooling during late April or May. The SOI was +3.39 today. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +1.575. On April 27, the MJO was in Phase 3 at an amplitude of 1.915 (RMM). The April 26-adjusted amplitude was 1.941. February 2020 saw the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly increase by more than 0.50°C. Such a development has typically occurred before a warmer than normal summer. In all such cases, a warmer than normal spring was followed by a warmer than normal summer. Such a summer is now likely in much or all of the East. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 100% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal April. April will likely finish with a mean temperature near 50.4°. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
etudiant Posted April 29, 2020 Share Posted April 29, 2020 Have to say that April may have surprised on the cool side, but NYC is getting a wonderful spring for flowers. The combination of cool weather with repeated rains is keeping the cherry blossoms at peak even as the leaves unfold. Plus the various tulip plantings have never looked so good. Today was the first really sunny spring day we've had, also the first one that had the bugs out in some quantity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted April 29, 2020 Share Posted April 29, 2020 The last 2 days of April are averaging 55degs., or about 4degs. BN. Month to date is -2.6[50.1]. April should end at about -2.6[50.4]. The first 10 days of May are averaging (GFS) -2.0[57.5]---OP, -6.5[53.0]---ENS. 51* here at 6am. 50* at 7am. 54* by 10am. 58* by 1pm. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted April 29, 2020 Share Posted April 29, 2020 Flood watch 1.5.-2.5 of rain Thursday into Friday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted April 29, 2020 Share Posted April 29, 2020 Clouds have burned off here.....maybe we'll sneak in a half way decent day.... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted April 29, 2020 Share Posted April 29, 2020 21 hours ago, JakkelWx said: Doubt we see a really cold pattern from now on. Most of the cold supply up north has been exhausted. Thinking a few days if not maybe a week of below normal temps but still relatively "mild" due to climatology warming. No real sustained warming until after May 15th is a likely bet. I agree with this. We will definitely go into a cool pattern after the warmer weather this weekend into monday, but it will be far from cold. Starting on 5/5 It looks like a lot of days with high temps near 60. Obviously that's cooler than normal for May, but 60 degrees is still decent spring weather and it'll be mild enough that we'll avoid frost at night except for well to the north and west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted April 29, 2020 Share Posted April 29, 2020 No surprise that this was one of the cloudiest Aprils on Long Island around noontime. https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/plotting/auto/?_wait=no&q=45&network=NY_ASOS&zstation=ISP&hour=12&year=2020&month=4&dpi=100&_fmt=png 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted April 29, 2020 Share Posted April 29, 2020 12 minutes ago, winterwx21 said: I agree with this. We will definitely go into a cool pattern after the warmer weather this weekend into monday, but it will be far from cold. Starting on 5/5 It looks like a lot of days with high temps near 60. Obviously that's cooler than normal for May, but 60 degrees is still decent spring weather and it'll be mild enough that we'll avoid frost at night except for well to the north and west. 50s and potentially 30s for lows is very cool for May and is relatively chilly. Still it could be a lot worse and it may very well be. I'm seeing hints of a -NAO/AO along with a -EPO which could be a prelude to rare mid May coastal storms. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted April 29, 2020 Share Posted April 29, 2020 Gfs and nam not nearly as wet as the euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted April 29, 2020 Share Posted April 29, 2020 32 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: Gfs and nam not nearly as wet as the euro 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted April 29, 2020 Share Posted April 29, 2020 ^ GFS similar with widespread 2" amounts NJ into city, though less east. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted April 29, 2020 Share Posted April 29, 2020 Just now, doncat said: ^ GFS similar with widespread 2" amounts NJ into city, though less east. But euro was 3"+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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