Allsnow Posted April 21, 2020 Share Posted April 21, 2020 24 minutes ago, bluewave said: This first line developed very quickly. But you can see both HRRR versions with a second line sweeping through right behind it. Don’t need much sun or clearing to get storms going with such steep midlevel lapse rates. Still no warnings in eastern Pa for the squall line. Even with the lapse rates it will get contaminated by cloudy sky’s. The showers ahead of the line will be more impressive then anything after. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
etudiant Posted April 21, 2020 Share Posted April 21, 2020 Nothingburger to date here in Manhattan. A bit of rain,tenth of an inch tops, small gusts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted April 21, 2020 Share Posted April 21, 2020 20 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: It's still one heck of a good setup for our standards. The strong lapse rates will help us overcome a lot of the instability issues. They will not be enough. It's very unlikely we'll even see isolated cases of severe weather. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted April 21, 2020 Share Posted April 21, 2020 11 minutes ago, lee59 said: Unusual situation having storms maintain strength or even get stronger as they head east across the city and Long Island. Hear thunder to my west. Outside of mid August into September It only happens in non classic setups where you aren’t relying on heating instability ahead of a front. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted April 21, 2020 Share Posted April 21, 2020 The line on Long Island is taking advantage of sun this morning and the lapse rates not contaminated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted April 21, 2020 Share Posted April 21, 2020 This killed the threat 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted April 21, 2020 Share Posted April 21, 2020 Just now, qg_omega said: This killed the threat Most severe threats are killed around here. It’s not like we live in Oklahoma. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted April 21, 2020 Share Posted April 21, 2020 Freezing levels are very low. Small hail or graupel is possible with heavier showers along with some gusty non-severe winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tatamy Posted April 21, 2020 Share Posted April 21, 2020 6 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Still no warnings in eastern Pa for the squall line. Even with the lapse rates it will get contaminated by cloudy sky’s. The showers ahead of the line will be more impressive then anything after. Nothing burger so far here in eastern PA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted April 21, 2020 Share Posted April 21, 2020 12 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Still no warnings in eastern Pa for the squall line. Even with the lapse rates it will get contaminated by cloudy sky’s. The showers ahead of the line will be more impressive then anything after. This first batch produced hail just below severe limits in Monmouth County, NJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted April 21, 2020 Share Posted April 21, 2020 16 minutes ago, Allsnow said: The line on Long Island is taking advantage of sun this morning and the lapse rates not contaminated. Fell apart, this is a classic see text day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JackMalarchey Posted April 21, 2020 Share Posted April 21, 2020 Whack! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted April 21, 2020 Share Posted April 21, 2020 Sun is out now. Down to 54 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted April 21, 2020 Share Posted April 21, 2020 Be interesting to see if that line is strong enough to verify the warning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted April 21, 2020 Share Posted April 21, 2020 2 minutes ago, bluewave said: Be interesting to see if that line is strong enough to verify the warning. Looks weak but might get a gust or two above 55 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tatamy Posted April 21, 2020 Share Posted April 21, 2020 2 minutes ago, bluewave said: Be interesting to see if that line is strong enough to verify the warning. It’s a silent one here so far. Just a healthy downpour. No lightning strikes detected on my Weatherflow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted April 21, 2020 Share Posted April 21, 2020 10 minutes ago, bluewave said: Be interesting to see if that line is strong enough to verify the warning. Radar echo appearance doesn’t always tell the whole story. Had plenty of lightning with 30-40dbz echoes earlier. Not only is the line lOW topped but it’s still really far away from the OKX site and KDIX is down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted April 21, 2020 Share Posted April 21, 2020 1 minute ago, Stormlover74 said: Looks weak but might get a gust or two above 55 The two nearest radar beams are coming from Dover and Upton. That’s part of the reason why the radar might look underwhelming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tatamy Posted April 21, 2020 Share Posted April 21, 2020 1 minute ago, Stormlover74 said: Looks weak but might get a gust or two above 55 Strongest wind gust with the activity here so far is 27 mph. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted April 21, 2020 Share Posted April 21, 2020 2 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: The two nearest radar beams are coming from Dover and Upton. That’s part of the reason why the radar might look underwhelming. But mt holly is notoriously too bullish with their warnings 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted April 21, 2020 Share Posted April 21, 2020 watch issued Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted April 21, 2020 Share Posted April 21, 2020 5 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: Radar echo appearance doesn’t always tell the whole story. Had plenty of lightning with 30-40dbz echoes earlier. Not only is the line lie topped but it’s still really far away from the OKX site and KDIX is down. I guess that they are are relying on TPHL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted April 21, 2020 Share Posted April 21, 2020 3 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: But mt holly is notoriously too bullish with their warnings I think it just has that appearance for the Northern counties because sometimes when cells cross over into OKX territory, Upton doesn't issue warnings. I think it's more of a case of the storms weakening as they cross the Hudson river and feel the marine influence. Good news is that shouldn't be a problem today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted April 21, 2020 Share Posted April 21, 2020 URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 128 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 125 PM EDT Tue Apr 21 2020 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Delaware Eastern Maryland New Jersey Western Long Island New York Eastern Pennsylvania Coastal Waters * Effective this Tuesday afternoon from 125 PM until 500 PM EDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible SUMMARY...A fast-moving line of showers and thunderstorms will move across the watch area this afternoon, with the potential for locally damaging wind gusts. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 60 statute miles east and west of a line from 35 miles northwest of Islip NY to 40 miles south southwest of Dover DE. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted April 21, 2020 Share Posted April 21, 2020 Visible satellite loop shows a narrow area of clearing ahead of the cold front sweeping across NJ currently. Looks like the clearing will not make it much North of Rt. 80. https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES/sector_band.php?sat=G16§or=ne&band=GEOCOLOR&length=12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tatamy Posted April 21, 2020 Share Posted April 21, 2020 4 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: I think it just has that appearance for the Northern counties because sometimes when cells cross over into OKX territory, Upton doesn't issue warnings. I think it's more of a case of the storms weakening as they cross the Hudson river and feel the marine influence. Good news is that shouldn't be a problem today. It should also be noted that storms crossing the Delaware River typically pulse up as they start to move across western NJ. I have seen many mild storms really pop as they make that move after they pass through my area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted April 21, 2020 Share Posted April 21, 2020 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted April 21, 2020 Share Posted April 21, 2020 Good amount of lightning activity popping up now over Western Morris County. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted April 21, 2020 Share Posted April 21, 2020 Sun is making an attempt to pop out up here. Going to be close with line approaching. Can already see the dark clouds coming off the mountains to my NW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted April 21, 2020 Share Posted April 21, 2020 Parts of southern NJ look to do well. I think I'm too far north for this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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