uncle W Posted April 21, 2020 Share Posted April 21, 2020 57 minutes ago, bluewave said: First time since 2000 that we are getting a cool April after such a warm March. Top 5 warmest Marches in NYC since 2000 Monthly Mean Avg Temperature for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Year Mar Apr Season 2012 50.9 54.8 52.8 2016 48.9 53.3 51.1 2010 48.2 57.9 53.0 2020 48.0 50.9 49.1 2000 47.2 51.0 49.1 no year had a March that was warmer than April...1946 came the closest when March averaged 49.8 and April 50.4... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted April 21, 2020 Share Posted April 21, 2020 Sun poking through the clouds here. Latest HRRR has around 1000 J/KG of SBCAPE in NE NJ ahead of the main line. Should make for a decent squall line if it verifies given the other parameters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted April 21, 2020 Share Posted April 21, 2020 11 minutes ago, uncle W said: no year had a March that was warmer than April...1946 came the closest when March averaged 49.8 and April 50.4... Also our first year since 1998 when the March maximum temperature was higher than April. Monthly Highest Max Temperature for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Year Mar Apr Season 2020 77 68 77 2019 75 80 80 2018 62 82 82 2017 70 87 87 2016 79 82 82 2015 62 80 80 2014 66 77 77 2013 59 82 82 2012 78 88 88 2011 77 83 83 2010 74 92 92 2009 70 92 92 2008 63 84 84 2007 78 86 86 2006 74 83 83 2005 63 87 87 2004 70 85 85 2003 69 88 88 2002 72 96 96 2001 57 87 87 2000 71 75 75 1999 74 80 80 1998 86 73 86 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted April 21, 2020 Share Posted April 21, 2020 I’m skeptical we see anything later as we have rain in front of the cold front. Currently cloudy and cool here 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted April 21, 2020 Share Posted April 21, 2020 5 minutes ago, Allsnow said: I’m skeptical we see anything later as we have rain in front of the cold front. Currently cloudy and cool here Agree though HRRR has been very consistent with a strong squall line passing through. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted April 21, 2020 Share Posted April 21, 2020 4 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: Agree though HRRR has been very consistent with a strong squall line passing through. If we can clear out after the round of showers this morning it will help. Currently these clouds are limiting are instability Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted April 21, 2020 Share Posted April 21, 2020 17 minutes ago, Allsnow said: If we can clear out after the round of showers this morning it will help. Currently these clouds are limiting are instability The mesoscale models have always had this late morning band pushing through followed by the main show a couple of hours later. Currently the cold front is all the way back in Central PA, near State College. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted April 21, 2020 Share Posted April 21, 2020 SBCAPE is lagging, but we still have a good amount of MUCAPE with decent shear and lapse rates. The HRRR continues to show a spike in surface based instability as the main line approaches around 17-19z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted April 21, 2020 Share Posted April 21, 2020 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted April 21, 2020 Share Posted April 21, 2020 The squall line is beginning to develop over SE PA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted April 21, 2020 Share Posted April 21, 2020 Just had a huge crack of thunder here. Surprised the hell out of me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lee59 Posted April 21, 2020 Share Posted April 21, 2020 As of now I have overcast skies and a strong wind off the water, not a good scenario for thunderstorm activity. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted April 21, 2020 Share Posted April 21, 2020 Just had another crack of thunder here. Storm is probably developing overhead. Goes to show you how much lift is out there despite the overcast conditions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted April 21, 2020 Share Posted April 21, 2020 18 minutes ago, bluewave said: The squall line is beginning to develop over SE PA. It'll probably just be some heavy showers. Activity out west doesn't look like much Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lee59 Posted April 21, 2020 Share Posted April 21, 2020 8 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: Just had another crack of thunder here. Storm is probably developing overhead. Goes to show you how much lift is out there despite the overcast conditions. Can see the cell on radar, right near Mahwah and north over the NY border Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted April 21, 2020 Share Posted April 21, 2020 Just now, lee59 said: Can see the cell on radar, right near Mahwah and north over the NY border Yup, had 3 or 4 good rumbles of thunder and then a burst of heavy rain. Gone now, and just some light rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted April 21, 2020 Share Posted April 21, 2020 11 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: It'll probably just be some heavy showers. Activity out west doesn't look like much The storms don’t really develop until they reach our area where the steeper midlevel lapse rates are located. JFK already gusting over 40 mph ahead of the storms. You can see some storms ahead of the main energy firing over NNJ with this steep midlevel lapse rate plume. Kennedy Intl PTSUNNY 52 48 86 S31G41 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted April 21, 2020 Share Posted April 21, 2020 3 minutes ago, bluewave said: The storms don’t really develop until they reach our area where the stronger midlevel lapse rates are located. JFK already gusting over 40 mph ahead of the storms. You can see the storms firing over NNJ under this steep midlevel lapse rate plume. Kennedy Intl PTSUNNY 52 48 86 S31G41 The 15z run of the HRRR shows the line blowing up as it comes down off the mountains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycwinter Posted April 21, 2020 Share Posted April 21, 2020 just heard thunder in manhattan... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted April 21, 2020 Share Posted April 21, 2020 2 hours ago, bluewave said: Also our first year since 1998 when the March maximum temperature was higher than April. Monthly Highest Max Temperature for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Year Mar Apr Season 2020 77 68 77 2019 75 80 80 2018 62 82 82 2017 70 87 87 2016 79 82 82 2015 62 80 80 2014 66 77 77 2013 59 82 82 2012 78 88 88 2011 77 83 83 2010 74 92 92 2009 70 92 92 2008 63 84 84 2007 78 86 86 2006 74 83 83 2005 63 87 87 2004 70 85 85 2003 69 88 88 2002 72 96 96 2001 57 87 87 2000 71 75 75 1999 74 80 80 1998 86 73 86 yeah so far...not sure but I think the latest 80 degree day came in June 1924... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rock888 Posted April 21, 2020 Share Posted April 21, 2020 Just had a flash of lightning and rumble out of nowhere here in central Queens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted April 21, 2020 Share Posted April 21, 2020 Just now, Rock888 said: Just had a flash of lightning and rumble out of nowhere here in central Queens. You can see these little embedded cells popping up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted April 21, 2020 Share Posted April 21, 2020 9 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: The 15z run of the HRRR shows the line blowing up as it comes down off the mountains. This first line developed very quickly. But you can see both HRRR versions with a second line sweeping through right behind it. Don’t need much sun or clearing to get storms going with such steep midlevel lapse rates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted April 21, 2020 Share Posted April 21, 2020 Thunder and lightning here with moderate rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted April 21, 2020 Share Posted April 21, 2020 This would've been one heck of a setup in early summer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted April 21, 2020 Share Posted April 21, 2020 2 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: This would've been one heck of a setup in early summer. It's still one heck of a good setup for our standards. The strong lapse rates will help us overcome a lot of the instability issues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rock888 Posted April 21, 2020 Share Posted April 21, 2020 Heavy soaking rain now. A few rumbles, not much wind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted April 21, 2020 Share Posted April 21, 2020 Lots of lightning strikes showing up all over Queens and the bays around Sandy Hook. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted April 21, 2020 Share Posted April 21, 2020 Mesoscale Discussion 0424 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1123 AM CDT Tue Apr 21 2020 Areas affected...northeast Virginia...Maryland...Deleware...southeast Pennsylvania and New Jersey Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 211623Z - 211830Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...The threat for isolated damaging wind may undergo some increase by early to mid afternoon over the Middle Atlantic region. Trends will continue to be monitored for a possible WW. DISCUSSION...A band of low-topped convection currently extends from eastern PA southwest into West Virginia moving east at around 45 kt. Activity is developing along a cold front and in association with deeper ascent attending a progressive shortwave trough. The downstream warm sector is only weakly unstable due to widespread pre-frontal rain and clouds. A relatively narrow corridor of partial clearing is occurring just ahead of the cold front, though tendency has been for dewpoints to mix down into the 30s F, due to a relatively shallow moist layer evident on the 12Z Dulles ROAB. The Wallops RAOB indicated a somewhat deeper near-surface moist layer with surface dewpoints in the upper 40s. As temperatures rise into the low-mid 60s F and where low-mid 40s near-surface dewpoints can be maintained, sufficient instability (300-500 J/kg MLCAPE) might develop to support updrafts capable of isolated damaging wind gusts. This will be promoted by inverted-V boundary layers and potential for southwesterly winds of 40-45 kt in the 1-2 km layer to be transported to the surface within some of the convective cores. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lee59 Posted April 21, 2020 Share Posted April 21, 2020 Unusual situation having storms maintain strength or even get stronger as they head east across the city and Long Island. Hear thunder to my west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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