April 2020

[hudsonvalley21]

5 hours ago, Allsnow said:

2 feet in NJ and snow to rain on Long Island with a slushy coating. 

How much for Philly 

[Allsnow]

3 minutes ago, hudsonvalley21 said:

How much for Philly 

They will fight substance as the best CCB will be to their East. Looks like 4-8 I’m center city 

[hudsonvalley21]

4 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

They will fight substance as the best CCB will be to their East. Looks like 4-8 I’m center city 

[Ericjcrash]

21 minutes ago, hudsonvalley21 said:

I'm getting more and more excited I'll see my biggest snow of the season(it'll be upstate so it's cheating) in the second half of April.

[SnoSki14]

We actually may not get to 70F this month.

I guess some places did already but whoever didn't won't get that chance. 

[lee59]

4 hours ago, winterwx21 said:

Yeah the run that we had from winters 2002-2003 to 2017-2018 was amazing. Well above average snowfall in 11 of those 16 winters, and only 3 of them were below average. As you said we're due for a period of climo reality. Things tend to average out. I think next winter will really tell the story if we're out of the great snow cycle. It would be hard to argue that we're not out of the snowy cycle if we have a 3rd year in a row of below average, but if we bounce back the snowy cycle will still be intact.

When the average snowfall is figured out by NOAA or the Weather Bureau, it is done in 30 year increments. The 1981-2010 time period averaged, I believe, 25.5 inches in Central Park. It is now time for this to be redone for the new 30 year time period from 1991 to 2020. The new average should be about 29.8 inches. This is quite an increase.

[uncle W]

snowfall should be a 30 year seasonal average...if you round up the average numbers per month the average is 30.0...the actual average is 29.9 from the 1990-91 winter to the 2019-20 winter...

NYC decade snow averages...
decade.......................Oct.....Nov.....Dec.....Jan.....Feb.....Mar.....Apr.....total

1870-71 to 1879-80......0.1.....0.9.....6.7......9.7......8.8.....4.1......1.6.....31.9
1880-81 to 1889-90........0......1.8.....7.1......8.8......7.6.....6.8......0.7.....32.8
1890-91 to 1899-00........0......3.3.....4.3......8.7....10.6.....7.1......0.8.....34.8
1900-01 to 1909-10........0......0.3.....6.2......9.1......9.2.....4.8......0.6.....30.2
1910-11 to 1919-20........0......0.2.....7.5......4.8......9.5.....8.3......2.3.....32.6
1920-21 to 1929-30......0.1.....0.1.....4.2......8.5....10.1.....2.2......0.9.....26.1
1930-31 to 1939-40........T......2.2.....4.3......6.4......8.5.....3.5......0.8.....25.7
1940-41 to 1949-50........T......0.6.....9.1......7.4......8.6.....4.8......1.1.....31.6
1950-51 to 1959-60......0.1.....0.5.....4.7......5.2......3.4.....8.0......0.8.....22.7
1960-61 to 1969-70........T......0.3.....7.4......7.7....10.6.....4.6......0.1.....30.7
1970-71 to 1979-80........T......0.3.....1.7......7.3......9.5.....2.4......0.1.....21.3
1980-81 to 1989-90........0......0.6.....2.1......7.8......5.3.....2.9......1.1.....19.8
1990-91 to 1999-00........0......0.3.....2.9......6.9......9.1.....5.4......0.2.....24.8
2000-01 to 2009-10........T........T......7.8......6.5....13.3.....3.5......0.4.....31.5
2010-11 to 2019-20......0.3.....1.1.....4.4....12.9......8.1.....6.0......0.6..…33.4

[donsutherland1]

Cooler weather covered the region today.

Late this week into the weekend, a storm will come out of the Plains States bringing a cold rain to the coastal region of the Middle Atlantic States, including Philadelphia, Newark, and New York City. An area stretching from northeastern Pennsylvania across central New York State and into central New England could pick up at least some snow.

Through at least April 24, readings could average generally below normal to near normal with a few warmer than normal days across the Middle Atlantic and southern New England regions. Support on the extended guidance for a return of warmer than normal conditions for the closing days of April has increased.

Past cases that saw the NAO average -0.750 or below during April 1-5 with warmth in the East, as occurred this month, saw the development of a trough in the East after April 10. That trough typically persisted in the means for 1-2 weeks.

Looking ahead to May, 73% of cases that saw one or more days where the NAO fell to -1.000 or below during April 1-10, 1950-2019, as was the case this April, wound up with a warmer than normal May. In addition, two-thirds of cases that saw the MJO reach Phase 8 at an amplitude of 2.000 or above during the April 5-20 period, as happened this month, saw a warmer than normal May.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.8°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.6°C for the week centered around April 8. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.72°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.58°C. Neutral and occasionally warm ENSO conditions will likely prevail through at least the end of April.

The SOI was -5.41 today.

Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +1.278.

On April 14, the MJO was in Phase 1 at an amplitude of 1.413 (RMM). The April 13-adjusted amplitude was 1.592.

February 2020 saw the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly increase by more than 0.50°C. Such a development has typically occurred before a warmer than normal summer. In all such cases, a warmer than normal spring was followed by a warmer than normal summer. Therefore, a warmer than normal summer is currently more likely than not. Should Spring wind up warmer than normal, a warm or even hot summer will be very likely.

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 58% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal April. April will likely finish with a mean temperature near 52.5°.

 

[TriPol]

3 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

Cooler weather covered the region today.

Late this week into the weekend, a storm will come out of the Plains States bringing a cold rain to the coastal region of the Middle Atlantic States, including Philadelphia, Newark, and New York City. An area stretching from northeastern Pennsylvania across central New York State and into central New England could pick up at least some snow.

Through at least April 24, readings could average generally below normal to near normal with a few warmer than normal days across the Middle Atlantic and southern New England regions. Support on the extended guidance for a return of warmer than normal conditions for the closing days of April has increased.

Past cases that saw the NAO average -0.750 or below during April 1-5 with warmth in the East, as occurred this month, saw the development of a trough in the East after April 10. That trough typically persisted in the means for 1-2 weeks.

Looking ahead to May, 73% of cases that saw one or more days where the NAO fell to -1.000 or below during April 1-10, 1950-2019, as was the case this April, wound up with a warmer than normal May. In addition, two-thirds of cases that saw the MJO reach Phase 8 at an amplitude of 2.000 or above during the April 5-20 period, as happened this month, saw a warmer than normal May.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.8°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.6°C for the week centered around April 8. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.72°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.58°C. Neutral and occasionally warm ENSO conditions will likely prevail through at least the end of April.

The SOI was -5.41 today.

Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +1.278.

On April 14, the MJO was in Phase 1 at an amplitude of 1.413 (RMM). The April 13-adjusted amplitude was 1.592.

February 2020 saw the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly increase by more than 0.50°C. Such a development has typically occurred before a warmer than normal summer. In all such cases, a warmer than normal spring was followed by a warmer than normal summer. Therefore, a warmer than normal summer is currently more likely than not. Should Spring wind up warmer than normal, a warm or even hot summer will be very likely.

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 58% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal April. April will likely finish with a mean temperature near 52.5°.

 

Could NYC see a flurry or two?

[Juliancolton]

A healthy coating of snow here this morning.

[CIK62]

The next 8 days are averaging 50degs., or 4degs. BN.

Month to date is  +1.8[52.2].        Should be  -0.2[52.1] by the 24th.

The second half of April looks warmer than it has before on these runs and should average near 57degs.(50/64) now.      So this would have April ending near  +1.4[54.4].        Ensembles may not be as warm.

45* here at 6am.     44* at 6:30am.        41* at 8am.       51* by 5pm.      39* by 11pm.

[crossbowftw3]

Models still showing some form of snow. 

Euro is all on its own with low end warning event @10:1 which when adjusted is really 3-6".

Realistically inland 1-3 with elevated 3-6" and maybe coatings to the coast then we officially close the book on snowfall accumulations for the next 6+ months.

[donsutherland1]

10 hours ago, TriPol said:

Could NYC see a flurry or two?

Probably not. Some sleet pellets are possible.

[donsutherland1]

Morning thoughts...

1. Snow fell in parts of the Great Lakes region yesterday. Snowfall amounts included 1.7" in Chicago (old daily record: 1.5", 1980) and 1.3" in Detroit.

2. Following the system, temperatures were in the 20s across that region this morning. Low temperatures included: Chicago: 28; Detroit: 25; Indianapolis: 24; Milwaukee: 26; and, Rockford: 23.

3. Another storm will move eastward out of the Plains States tomorrow and then off the East Coast on Saturday. It will likely bring a swath of snow across parts of the Great Lakes region, across northeastern Pennsylvania and then into New England.

Initial snowfall ideas:

Albany: 3”-6”
Binghamton: 4”-8”
Boston: 2” or less
Chicago: 1"-3"
Detroit: 1"-3"
Scranton: 2”-4”

No accumulations are likely in New York City, Newark, and Philadelphia where a cold rain is likely.

[uncle W]

1 hour ago, donsutherland1 said:

Morning thoughts...

1. Snow fell in parts of the Great Lakes region yesterday. Snowfall amounts included 1.7" in Chicago (old daily record: 1.5", 1980) and 1.3" in Detroit.

2. Following the system, temperatures were in the 20s across that region this morning. Low temperatures included: Chicago: 28; Detroit: 25; Indianapolis: 24; Milwaukee: 26; and, Rockford: 23.

3. Another storm will move eastward out of the Plains States tomorrow and then off the East Coast on Saturday. It will likely bring a swath of snow across parts of the Great Lakes region, across northeastern Pennsylvania and then into New England.

Initial snowfall ideas:

Albany: 3”-6”
Binghamton: 4”-8”
Boston: 2” or less
Chicago: 1"-3"
Detroit: 1"-3"
Scranton: 2”-4”

No accumulations are likely in New York City, Newark, and Philadelphia where a cold rain is likely.

Don...all winter with bad news....please lie to us once and a while to give us some hope...

[snowman19]

3 hours ago, crossbowftw3 said:

Models still showing some form of snow. 

Euro is all on its own with low end warning event @10:1 which when adjusted is really 3-6".

Realistically inland 1-3 with elevated 3-6" and maybe coatings to the coast then we officially close the book on snowfall accumulations for the next 6+ months.

The NYC metro area is not going to see any accumulating snow at all tomorrow night

[crossbowftw3]

3 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

The NYC metro area is not going to see any accumulating snow at all tomorrow night

Wouldn't doubt it. In air to coast seems more probable.

[Ericjcrash]

I'm so stoked to go upstate tomorrow. My locale looking good for 4-6" especially that its slowed down a bit.

[snowman19]

1 hour ago, crossbowftw3 said:

Wouldn't doubt it. In air to coast seems more probable.

There might be some wet snow mixed in with the rain but as far as accumulating snow, not happening in the metro area

[gravitylover]

6 hours ago, Juliancolton said:

A healthy coating of snow here this morning.

I had a ground covering period of sleet that finished with flurries and melted off in minutes. I'm hoping for more tomorrow night.

[HVSnowLover]

Looks like at least some snow for Ulster/Sullivan/and Dutchess tomorrow, maybe down to Orange/Putnam

[HVSnowLover]

1 hour ago, snowman19 said:

The NYC metro area is not going to see any accumulating snow at all tomorrow night

Agree, there is no way it is going to stick at the coast, based on the last two events I could see some wet flakes/pellets mixed in a little especially in the NW suburbs but you will have to get north of I84 at least to get accumulating snow

[doncat]

On this date in 2002 probably the most anomalous heat wave on record...4 straight days of 90° plus, temps here of 91,96,91 and 91.

[Animal]

3 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said:

Agree, there is no way it is going to stick at the coast, based on the last two events I could see some wet flakes/pellets mixed in a little especially in the NW suburbs but you will have to get north of I84 at least to get accumulating snow

Mt Holly afd going mostly an all rain event.

possibly some snow to start nw nj & poconos quickly over to rain.

[Stormlover74]

5 minutes ago, doncat said:

On this date in 2002 probably the most anomalous heat wave on record...4 straight days of 90° plus, temps here of 91,96,91 and 91.

It was awful but did end with some pretty potent storms.

[psv88]

Sick of these 50 degree days already, time to warm it up

[SnoSki14]

1 hour ago, snowman19 said:

There might be some wet snow mixed in with the rain but as far as accumulating snow, not happening in the metro area

Yeah we already know that.

[MJO812]

I'm so jealous of the lake regions and SNE. More snow for them coming up.

[bluewave]

Freeze potential tonight outside NYC. Looks like it will be a little later than usual since 2010.
 

ISLIP               
 KISP   GFS MOS GUIDANCE    4/16/2020  1200 UTC                      
 DT /APR  16/APR  17                /APR  18                /APR  19 
 HR   18 21 00 03 06 09 12 15 18 21 00 03 06 09 12 15 18 21 00 06 12 
 N/X                    31          49          44          53    36 

Frost/Freeze Summary for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY
Each section contains date and year of occurrence, value on that date.
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Year	Last	Value	First	Value	Season Length
Minimum	03-27 (2010)		10-13 (2012)		176
Mean	04-08		10-30		204
Maximum	04-25 (2015)		11-14 (2016)		224
2019	04-02 (2019)	26	11-04 (2019)	32	215
2018	04-11 (2018)	26	10-22 (2018)	32	193
2017	03-30 (2017)	32	11-10 (2017)	26	224
2016	04-10 (2016)	32	11-14 (2016)	32	217
2015	04-25 (2015)	32	10-19 (2015)	29	176
2014	04-16 (2014)	32	11-08 (2014)	31	205
2013	04-07 (2013)	31	10-26 (2013)	32	201
2012	04-06 (2012)	32	10-13 (2012)	32	189
2011	04-08 (2011)	32	10-31 (2011)	30	205
2010	03-27 (2010)	28	11-02 (2010)	30	219

[uncle W]

3 hours ago, doncat said:

On this date in 2002 probably the most anomalous heat wave on record...4 straight days of 90° plus, temps here of 91,96,91 and 91.

it eclipsed 1976 by a day...both years had record cold about a month later...