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April 2020


donsutherland1
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Severe Thunderstorm Warning
National Weather Service New York NY
134 PM EDT Thu Apr 9 2020

The National Weather Service in Upton NY has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Warning for...
  Hudson County in northeastern New Jersey...
  Union County in northeastern New Jersey...
  Essex County in northeastern New Jersey...
  Queens County in southeastern New York...
  Richmond County in southeastern New York...
  Kings County in southeastern New York...
  New York (Manhattan) County in southeastern New York...
  Southwestern Nassau County in southeastern New York...

* Until 215 PM EDT.

* At 133 PM EDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line
  extending from Summit to Kingston, moving east at 65 mph.

  HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail.

 

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This afternoon a strong cold front pushed through the region with a thin squall line accompanied by high winds, thunder, and a downpour. Afterward, the clouds pushed rapidly eastward, and the remainder of the day was a fine April day with readings in the 50s. The wind remained gusty.

Larchmont04092020-2.jpg

Larchmont04092020-1.jpg

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A strong cold front moved across the region with a thin squall line. In its wake, the sky cleared and a gusty wind prevailed.

Parts of the south again saw record warmth. High temperatures included: Jacksonville: 92° (tied record set in 2011); Miami: 94° (old record: 93°, 1982); Mobile: 90° (old record: 89°, 1965); New Orleans: 89° (old record: 86°, 1999); Pensacola: 88° (old record: 85°, 1945, 1946, and 1965); Tallahassee: 92° (tied record set in 2011); and, West Palm Beach: 93° (old record: 92°, 1965).

Through at least April 24, readings could average generally below normal to near normal with a few warmer than normal days across the Middle Atlantic and southern New England regions. The Plains States will likely experience much colder than normal readings.

Past cases that saw the NAO average -0.750 or below during April 1-5 with warmth in the East, as occurred this month, saw the development of a trough in the East after April 10. That trough typically persisted in the means for 1-2 weeks. The 4/6 0z run of the EPS weeklies supports such a scenario.

Looking ahead to May, 73% of cases that saw one or more days where the NAO fell to -1.000 or below during April 1-10, 1950-2019, as was the case this April, wound up with a warmer than normal May. 

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.8°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.6°C for the week centered around April 1. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.75°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.67°C. Neutral and occasionally warm ENSO conditions will likely prevail through at least the end of April.

The SOI was +1.44 today.

Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +0.821.

On April 8, the MJO was in Phase 7 at an amplitude of 1.225 (RMM). The April 7-adjusted amplitude was 1.155.

February 2020 saw the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly increase by more than 0.50°C. Such a development has typically occurred before a warmer than normal summer. In all such cases, a warmer than normal spring was followed by a warmer than normal summer. Therefore, a warmer than normal summer is currently more likely than not. Should Spring wind up warmer than normal, a warm or even hot summer will be very likely.

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