April 2020

[donsutherland1]

Morning thoughts...

Recently, the MJO moved through Phase 3 at a very high amplitude. There have been two distinct clusters of outcomes for April following such passages during the March 20-31 period.

Despite the most recent CFSv2 forecast, Cluster 1 (warmer outcome in the East) is the more likely one. First, the closing 10 days of March have seen the presence of much less cold air than the colder cluster. Second, some of the large-scale hemispheric changes that have been evolving in response to ENSO conditions also favor a milder outcome in the East. Third, the 3/30 run of the EPS weeklies were warmer than the 3/27 run. Fourth, the core of the cold on the CFSv2 is more consistent with the warmer cluster with the primary difference being its showing modest cold anomalies that extend to the East Coast.

Overall, even as much of the East Coast will likely be on the mild side of normal, warm anomalies very likely won't rival those of February or March.

[gravitylover]

I'm good with normal to slightly above but not "hot" at this point, especially if it's dry(ish). After two very wet springs it sure would be nice to get a dry April.

[golfer07840]

3 hours ago, gravitylover said:

I'm good with normal to slightly above but not "hot" at this point, especially if it's dry(ish). After two very wet springs it sure would be nice to get a dry April.

Stuck inside, warm weather is just going to depress me. 

[gravitylover]

4 hours ago, golfer07840 said:

Stuck inside, warm weather is just going to depress me. 

So go out. Ride your bike, play some golf, go for a hike... Dry and comfortable is perfect. Golf courses are allowed to be open because they have to be there maintaining the grounds anyway so as long as they practice social distancing and all that they're good to go. A couple of the courses around me are open and not terribly expensive.

[donsutherland1]

March 2020 will finish with a mean temperature of 48.0° in New York City. That made March 2020 New York City's 7th warmest March on record. In the South, New Orleans will likely finish with a mean temperature of 73.1°, easily making March 2020 the warmest March on record there. The old record was 70.7°, which was set in 2012.

The first week of April will see somewhat below normal to near normal temperatures, as the NAO, now at a preliminary value of -0.297, heads below -1.000. During the April 1-7, 1981-2019 period, the mean temperature was 49.3° for New York City and 50.5° for Philadelphia. During cases when the NAO was -0.75 or below, the respective mean temperatures for New York City and Philadelphia were 47.9° and 49.4°.

Afterward, there is uncertainty about the longer-term pattern evolution.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.8°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.5°C for the week centered around March 25. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.67°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.57°C. Neutral and occasionally warm ENSO conditions will likely prevail through at least the end of April.

The SOI was -1.48 today.

Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +0.653.

On March 30, the MJO was in Phase 4 at an amplitude of 2.012 (RMM). The March 29-adjusted amplitude was 2.002.

February 2020 saw the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly increase by more than 0.50°C. Such a development has typically occurred before a warmer than normal summer. In all such cases, a warmer than normal spring was followed by a warmer than normal summer. Therefore, a warmer than normal summer is currently more likely than not. Should Spring wind up warmer than normal, a warm or even hot summer will be very likely.

April will likely be somewhat warmer to warmer than normal in the East. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 53% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal April.

[golfer07840]

3 hours ago, gravitylover said:

So go out. Ride your bike, play some golf, go for a hike... Dry and comfortable is perfect. Golf courses are allowed to be open because they have to be there maintaining the grounds anyway so as long as they practice social distancing and all that they're good to go. A couple of the courses around me are open and not terribly expensive.

Not in NJ. Murphy shut them down. No golf for me until, I'm hoping, Memorial day(ish) no driving ranges are open either. 

It's a ghost town here in NJ. 

[CIK62]

March ended at +5.5[48.0].

The first 8 days of April are averaging 53degs., or 4degs. AN.

The first 17 days of April are averaging 49degs.(45/54), or 2degs. BN.!     Even shows (06Z,GFS) some Snow on the night of the 16th-17th.!!.     Remember 16 days ago  this very corresponding run, predicted a High T for today of 33, 24 hours later it had raised it to 74.    Put $2.00 on Betsy's Bib in the Fifth.

41* here at 6am.     40* at 6:30am.          45* by 11am.        47* at Noon.          52* by 3pm.      56* by 6pm.

[gravitylover]

9 hours ago, golfer07840 said:

Not in NJ. Murphy shut them down. No golf for me until, I'm hoping, Memorial day(ish) no driving ranges are open either. 

It's a ghost town here in NJ. 

Take a ride, many courses are open in NY. Driving ranges are closed. This is right down the road from me and the course is beautiful, easily worth the travel time and the $35-40 it costs to play right now. https://www.somersnational.com/golf/tee-times I'm sure there are plenty of others on the west side of the river so you don't have to pay the toll at the bridge but if you'd like to come up you could probably talk me into going out for a round.

[bluewave]

Getting more sun today than yesterday. Strong ocean storm is moving SE of the area under the big -NAO block. 

[donsutherland1]

2 hours ago, CIK62 said:

March ended at +5.5[48.0].

The first 8 days of April are averaging 53degs., or 4degs. AN.

The first 17 days of April are averaging 49degs.(45/54), or 2degs. BN.!     Even shows (06Z,GFS) some Snow on the night of the 16th-17th.!!.     Remember 16 days ago  this very corresponding run, predicted a High T for today of 33, 24 hours later it had raised it to 74.    Put $2.00 on Betsy's Bib in the Fifth.

41* here at 6am.     40* at 6:30am.

For purposes of looking at the GFS (FV3) cold bias, the model blend I use for my sensitivity analysis has a departure of +1.5° for the April 1-17 period vs. the GFS's -2.0°. It will be interesting to see the actual number.

[golfer07840]

2 hours ago, gravitylover said:

Take a ride, many courses are open in NY. Driving ranges are closed. This is right down the road from me and the course is beautiful, easily worth the travel time and the $35-40 it costs to play right now. https://www.somersnational.com/golf/tee-times I'm sure there are plenty of others on the west side of the river so you don't have to pay the toll at the bridge but if you'd like to come up you could probably talk me into going out for a round.

I'll take it under consideration. I want to see how these next 2 weeks play out. 

[donsutherland1]

Morning thoughts...

1. The NAO has now dropped below -1.000 with a preliminary daily value of -1.056.

2. The temperature in New York City had risen to 47 degrees after a morning low of 38 degrees. March 1 was very likely New York City's last freeze.

3. Near record to record cold covered parts of Alaska, British Columbia, and Alberta this morning. At Hoonah, AK, the temperature had fallen to 13 degrees at 7 am local time. That smashed the old record low figure of 22 degrees, which was set in 1996.

[winterwx21]

1 hour ago, golfer07840 said:

I'll take it under consideration. I want to see how these next 2 weeks play out. 

At the very least you can go outside for a nice walk or run. Lots of people here are walking and running around the block. More than I've ever seen before. You definitely don't want to be cooped up in the house. In addition to a lot of running, I'm also doing a lot of gardening in my back yard. Also driving to some nice places for hiking. Would drive me crazy to stay in the house.

[psv88]

32 minutes ago, winterwx21 said:

At the very least you can go outside for a nice walk or run. Lots of people here are walking and running around the block. More than I've ever seen before. You definitely don't want to be cooped up in the house. In addition to a lot of running, I'm also doing a lot of gardening in my back yard. Also driving to some nice places for hiking. Would drive me crazy to stay in the house.

Same here, i have been walking alot, hiking and running. My home office for now is in the finished basement, but im a social person and hate being all cooped up.

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

Nice to have some sun today. Nothing worse for a already depressed mood then day after day of low clouds and misery mist

[bluewave]

1 hour ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

Nice to have some sun today. Nothing worse for a already depressed mood then day after day of low clouds and misery mist

Yeah, the warm sun felt nice today. The ocean storm to our SE is beginning to take on some subtropical characteristics. Looks like it will be pretty windy the next few days especially out toward Eastern LI and Cape Cod.

 

[uncle W]

the pesky neg nao could be around for a while...the ao did not get as neg as advertised and is forecast to stay somewhat positive...the neg nao will stunt any warm air for now...Central park had a low of 38 this morning and could end up as the coldest April minimum...38 is a pretty high number but not a record...the record is 42 set in 1878 after another single digit snow year...2012 had a 38 monthly min also...2010 comes in second with an April min of 40...

[forkyfork]

57 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Yeah, the warm sun felt nice today. The ocean storm to our SE is beginning to take on some subtropical characteristics. Looks like it will be pretty windy the next few days especially out toward Eastern LI and Cape Cod.

 

we used to get storms like that near the benchmark

[bluewave]

21 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

we used to get storms like that near the benchmark

The cutter, hugger, and suppressed southern stream storm tracks have dominated last few years.

[Rtd208]

2 hours ago, bluewave said:

The cutter, hugger, and suppressed southern stream storm tracks have dominated last few years.

Timing has been a real issue the last few years. We just can't line up a -ao/nao, +pna etc when we need them. The pac jet/fast flow has also been another problem. In other news if a LaNina develops as expected as we head towards summer then I think we have a good chance of seeing some tropical activity here this year. We'll see.

[donsutherland1]

After a cool start, the temperature rose into the middle 50s across much of the region today. A strong offshore storm will spread clouds into the region late tomorrow and tomorrow night. A period of steady rain and gusty winds is possible into Friday, especially on parts of Long Island.

Parts of Alaska, British Columbia, and Alberta saw near record to record low temperatures earlier today. Hoonah AK had a low temperature of 13°, which smashed the daily record low figure of 22° from 1996. Juneau had a minimum temperature of 14°, which tied the record set in 1920 and tied in 1948.

The first five days of April will see somewhat below normal to near normal temperatures as the NAO heads below -1.000.

During the April 1-7, 1981-2019 period, the mean temperature was 49.3° for New York City and 50.5° for Philadelphia. During cases when the NAO was -0.75 or below--today's preliminary figure was -1.056--the respective mean temperatures for New York City and Philadelphia were 47.9° and 49.4°. However, the limited pool of cold air available to be tapped this year could result in a short-duration period of cool readings.

Afterward, there is uncertainty about the longer-term pattern evolution. Some of the guidance suggests that cooler air could return near April 10.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.8°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.5°C for the week centered around March 25. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.67°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.57°C. Neutral and occasionally warm ENSO conditions will likely prevail through at least the end of April.

The SOI was +5.33 today.

Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +0.895.

On March 31, the MJO was in Phase 4 at an amplitude of 1.583 (RMM). The March 30-adjusted amplitude was 2.010.

February 2020 saw the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly increase by more than 0.50°C. Such a development has typically occurred before a warmer than normal summer. In all such cases, a warmer than normal spring was followed by a warmer than normal summer. Therefore, a warmer than normal summer is currently more likely than not. Should Spring wind up warmer than normal, a warm or even hot summer will be very likely.

[CIK62]

The next 8 days are averaging 53degs., or about 4degs. AN.

The next 17 days are averaging 52degs.(46/59), or just about Normal.

40* here at 6am.       39* at 6:30pm.   42* and breezy by 9am.          49* by Noon.        57* by 4pm.       58* at 4:30pm.        55* by 7:00pm

[the_other_guy]

39F

I have spent the last few weeks in Florida...funny how the early “leaf out” never really occurred

Forsythias are blooming during the first week of April...as they should 

A little early, but nothing extreme

[bluewave]

12 hours ago, Rtd208 said:

Timing has been a real issue the last few years. We just can't line up a -ao/nao, +pna etc when we need them. The pac jet/fast flow has also been another problem. In other news if a LaNina develops as expected as we head towards summer then I think we have a good chance of seeing some tropical activity here this year. We'll see.

We are getting our strong spring -NAO pattern. This has been a common feature in recent years following the record winter +AO./+NAO. Records for high pressure have been set over Northern Canada.

 

 

 

 

 

[SnoSki14]

6 minutes ago, bluewave said:

We are getting our strong spring -NAO pattern. This has been a common feature in recent years following the record winter +AO./+NAO. Records for high pressure have been set over Northern Canada.

Yeah now models are bringing back the blocking after prematurely showing it quickly going away. 

This should keep April on the cooler side relative to normal especially vs Jan-Feb anomalies. 

[gravitylover]

1 hour ago, jfklganyc said:

39F

I have spent the last few weeks in Florida...funny how the early “leaf out” never really occurred

Forsythias are blooming during the first week of April...as they should 

A little early, but nothing extreme

It is strange because it tried to start so early and then it stopped. I drove to Key West and back in the first week of Feb and leaf out had reached all the way up to the Maryland eastern shores by 2/10 and random bits around here softened and greened but then the leaves never popped. I was just saying to my wife yesterday when we were out that it started but never took hold and that I'm really looking forward to stick season ending if for no other reason than to add some life and freshness to a world that feels terribly damaged right now.

It's garbage can blowing down the street kind of windy up here right now, what's it like further east and south of me on the CT coast and LI?

[Brian5671]

5 minutes ago, gravitylover said:

It is strange because it tried to start so early and then it stopped. I drove to Key West and back in the first week of Feb and leaf out had reached all the way up to the Maryland eastern shores by 2/10 and random bits around here softened and greened but then the leaves never popped. I was just saying to my wife yesterday when we were out that it started but never took hold and that I'm really looking forward to stick season ending if for no other reason than to add some life and freshness to a world that feels terribly damaged right now.

It's garbage can blowing down the street kind of windy up here right now, what's it like further east and south of me on the CT coast and LI?

winds have been increasing here all morning-can also see the cloud deck off to the east slowing moving westward

[Brian5671]

53 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Yeah now models are bringing back the blocking after prematurely showing it quickly going away. 

This should keep April on the cooler side relative to normal especially vs Jan-Feb anomalies. 

Seems like there is less cold this year though-I'm wondering if I've had my last freeze already.    SST's in the western ATL are well above normal so even with the onshore flow it likely won't be as bad as last year which had a cold pool off the NE coast....

[MJO812]

32 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

Seems like there is less cold this year though-I'm wondering if I've had my last freeze already.    SST's in the western ATL are well above normal so even with the onshore flow it likely won't be as bad as last year which had a cold pool off the NE coast....

Watch out for tropical season with the above normal ssts

[Brian5671]

23 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Watch out for tropical season with the above normal ssts

and a La Nina-could be very active.