Fear and loathing April, 2020 discussion, obs, and the occasional derailment

[STILL N OF PIKE]

This is insane to be tracking something this time of year

what a freak pattern and this has lasted a bit 

[Torch Tiger]

looks like mud angels, not snow angels

[Typhoon Tip]

I would also caution that the NAM tends to run a cool bias in synoptic events around here from hours 60 to 84 ... I've seen this countless times, and then it ticks warmer again coming into shorter range. 

I suppose the 'encouraging' aspect is that some of these globals are chilly - agreed...so it may not be a straight application of bias in this case... but just sayn'

[OceanStWx]

2 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said:

I didn't notice a hint to a snowier outcome in the overnight discussion

Yeah it's a little light in my opinion outside of the mountains. It's hard to go guns blazing this time of year, but something like the Euro snow depth for our "official" forecast at the moment would be fair. Generally around an inch outside of the foothills, and up to a half inch on the coast. I think that would be fair to signal in the point and click that accumulating snow is a distinct possibility. 

[wxeyeNH]

Quite the late season snowfall for me.  I was going to make a new thread for it but not sure yet if this is a real event for lower elevations or interior SNE

[HoarfrostHubb]

9 minutes ago, wxeyeNH said:

Quite the late season snowfall for me.  I was going to make a new thread for it but not sure yet if this is a real event for lower elevations or interior SNE

Fire it up!

[moneypitmike]

I can't go against climatology.....with the exception of Dave and Yukon, I'd toss the snow idea for MA.

 

Then again, snow can't accumulate in October.

[dendrite]

12z GFS with a fun window again up here Sunday night. Gotta cheer this on at this point. It'd probably vaporize in a day or 2.

[STILL N OF PIKE]

 

Let’s trend this deeper slower and a bit SE

maybe Imput that in the KURO

 

[dryslot]

High 50's Tues-Weds it would be gone anyways, Mowing deck is on the JD tractor so it would stay and have to melt off no matter what falls at this point.

[OceanStWx]

8 minutes ago, dendrite said:

12z GFS with a fun window again up here Sunday night. Gotta cheer this on at this point. It'd probably vaporize in a day or 2.

What else am I going to do? I can't golf yet and I'm behind on yardwork anyway. 

[Damage In Tolland]

7 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

 

Let’s trend this deeper slower and a bit SE

maybe Imput that in the KURO

 

This isn’t for SNE anywhere except NW Berks. You’ll have to DILF trip it to Jackson area 

[ORH_wxman]

Gotta watch that CCB area on Monday evening too....they are often undermodeled...it's actually what gave a lot of N ORH county their snow in the last system....I remember early Sat morning there was like an inch or so up near Hubbdave and then that CCB ML magic stuff gave him another 3" or so. That was kind of weak too....this one appears to be a bit stronger with the CCB, albeit still weaker than the WCB lift.

[CoastalWx]

Just now, ORH_wxman said:

Gotta watch that CCB area on Monday evening too....they are often undermodeled...it's actually what gave a lot of N ORH county their snow in the last system....I remember early Sat morning there was like an inch or so up near Hubbdave and then that CCB ML magic stuff gave him another 3" or so. That was kind of weak too....this one appears to be a bit stronger with the CCB, albeit still weaker than the WCB lift.

Decent CCB as modeled as 925s really cool.

[HIPPYVALLEY]

23 minutes ago, moneypitmike said:

I can't go against climatology.....with the exception of Dave and Yukon, I'd toss the snow idea for MA.

 

Then again, snow can't accumulate in October.

Yeah, you want to be at least 1000 feet up, probably more and be in N Worcester or E Franklin Co. 

[STILL N OF PIKE]

What a slow mover

this seems to stall or stack Monday noon to midnight just SE of ack

i may camp at 1400’ on weenie ridge for 36 hours lol

[STILL N OF PIKE]

if this trends a bit stronger and slower would the track likely adjust S or North given the influences 

any Mets care to chime in on that 

 

[ORH_wxman]

8 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

What a slow mover

this seems to stall or stack Monday noon to midnight just SE of ack

i may camp at 1400’ on weenie ridge for 36 hours lol

This is what we have to watch for Monday night....this is the GGEM

 

 

[HIPPYVALLEY]

Maybe I’ll go hike Mount Monadnock on Monday. That seems like a decent spot for this. I’m expecting cold rain in Greenfield.

[wxeyeNH]

46 minutes ago, dendrite said:

12z GFS with a fun window again up here Sunday night. Gotta cheer this on at this point. It'd probably vaporize in a day or 2.

This could be fun.  10" of heavy wet snow up here on my hill.  Like Brian said it will be gone quickly but temperatures in the 40's  early next week will keep the ground white for a couple of days.  Wonder if the town would put the plows back on the trucks or just let it melt on our dirt road?  Plows would dig up the road pretty good at this point

[CoastalWx]

A nice hey how are you from the Canadian here Monday night.

[STILL N OF PIKE]

9 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

Maybe I’ll go hike Mount Monadnock on Monday. That seems like a decent spot for this. I’m expecting cold rain in Greenfield.

Monadanock , and miller state park about half hour east (w paved across road) could be a good spot .

[Damage In Tolland]

4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

A nice hey how are you from the Canadian here Monday night.

Enjoy!

[monadnocks]

Just now, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Monadanock , and miller state park about half hour east (w paved across road) could be a good spot .

The state has put in some moderate restrictions at Monadnock so just be mindful of them. There are plenty of trails around North and South Pack. Please hike safely though. Miller State has the advantage that you can walk up the auto road.

[ORH_wxman]

Just now, monadnocks said:

The state has put in some moderate restrictions at Monadnock so just be mindful of them. There are plenty of trails around North and South Pack. Please hike safely though. Miller State has the advantage that you can walk up the auto road.

I'm guessing he's not going to have to worry much about other hikers in the middle of a 31F paste bomb in the monadnocks.

[STILL N OF PIKE]

So not one member of the GEFS has as much snow as the OP. Even for the gfs this is odd, no?

the OP has been more bullish last couple runs than almost all its ensembles

[STILL N OF PIKE]

5 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

I'm guessing he's not going to have to worry much about other hikers in the middle of a 31F paste bomb in the monadnocks.

I would def be choosing miller state park . First good spot after you gain good elevation heading thru and past temple NH

It maybe busy Saturday there but def not Monday lol

[STILL N OF PIKE]

Ukie suggest Kanc maybe where it’s at

[HIPPYVALLEY]

3 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

I would def be choosing miller state park . First good spot after you gain good elevation heading thru and past temple NH

It maybe busy Saturday there but def not Monday lol

Monadnock is closer for me and I know a bunch of different trails.  That being said I can probably get away with finding snow somewhere much closer to Greenfield.

Maybe Catamount SF in Colrain.  Nobody will bother me up there. 

[HIPPYVALLEY]

1 minute ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Ukie suggest Kanc maybe where it’s at

Makes sense.  Tomorrow will bring a more clear picture if we are tickling north or south with this.