Fear and loathing April, 2020 discussion, obs, and the occasional derailment

[ORH_wxman]

Lol....deep thoughts from cranky.

 

I'm predicting a gradual transition from early fall to mid fall to late fall this year between late September and Thanksgiving.

 

 

[dendrite]

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

Lol....deep thoughts from cranky.

 

I'm predicting a gradual transition from early fall to mid fall to late fall this year between late September and Thanksgiving.

 

 

And then back to mid fall for DJFM.

[CoastalWx]

       

[CoastalWx]

The other voodoo tactic to elicit weenie responses, are the voodoo calls for storms like 6 weeks out in winter. "I predict a storm in the east from the period of 1/6-1/13."  No shit, it's called climo. 

[Typhoon Tip]

Seasonal transition is still underway  .. despite the apparent ebullient want for whatever that is 120 hours.  Earlier this week I discussed the 850 mb thermal layout clearly modulating across the hemisphere - last night operational Euro is pretty emphatic about that.  

As for early next week...yeah, it's not impossible. It's not a refutation on above - it's more like typical marginal pocket of butt bang typical New England enabling BS for people that can't stand summer and can't let go of winter, allowing it to con them, and will be disappointed like it always does.  It's like a last hurrah reach back of cold air (suckers!) before it gets kicked out... Even looks that way on the chart in a kind of comical homage.  Kidding, but it's also possible that flattens/dims in amplitude, just like what Friday's did in this run up. This skirting wave tomorrow had much more panache in particular, the GFS from about 5 days back. It's even questionable to me at this point if we even wet the Earth much in southern NH given trends ... But given to the seasonality and modulation from daily solar abuse pummeling the mid latitudes in this ( eh hm..) mid August sun intensity, that deal next week may also deamplify.

No loss to me ...but I would be personally surprised if it snows lower that 2,500 ~ feet anywhere despite UK looks... Now, I would be more inclined to say we overcome if the system were not moving so fast.  We've just been a plagued with fast translation speeds since ... mid December really.  It's not just the winds around the wave features in the atmosphere, with those Neptunian jet speeds of historic rage, either. It's the waves themselves.  Even during this recent -EPO, and some of these pulsed -NAO's we've dealt with over the last 20 days, the individual waves in the atmosphere can't situate... Progressive long waves, foisting their internal short waves through the flow. We're just not doing et al, as fast as a month ago...and priors, but we are still seeing that happen.  And we kind of want dynamic/spring type blue-bomb amplitude as a slowing/coring event?  Not so much a stretching correction - going the wrong the way synoptically under an August insolation is asking a lot. 

Anyway, the atmosphere is marginal typical spring style heading into the 96-120 range, but the tendency above will also 'stretch' that feature and speed it up most like - besides, it is modeled to kite right along anyway.  

[CoastalWx]

EPS still looks like some snow in the high interior into souther VT and NH.

[dryslot]

27 minutes ago, dendrite said:

So April is early spring, the beginning of May is mid spring, and the end of May is late spring. Fascinating.

 

So i guess march is a winter month ASOUT?

[Ginx snewx]

10 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

The other voodoo tactic to elicit weenie responses, are the voodoo calls for storms like 6 weeks out in winter. "I predict a storm in the east from the period of 1/6-1/13."  No shit, it's called climo. 

How did Fishers posting a 10 day Euro 80 degree day for this coming Saturday work out. The hypocrisy is real

[CoastalWx]

Just now, Ginx snewx said:

How did Fishers posting a 10 day Euro 80 degree day for this coming Saturday work out. The hypocrisy is real

I think the GFS and Euro had it, but I didn't take his tweet as gospel iirc.

[Ginx snewx]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

I think the GFS and Euro had it, but I didn't take his tweet as gospel iirc.

Lol mets get a pass for day 10 80 degree maps but anyone else gets weenied for day ten 30 degree maps. Happens a lot. 

[Damage In Tolland]

 

[CoastalWx]

Just now, Ginx snewx said:

Lol mets get a pass for day 10 80 degree maps but anyone else gets weenied for day ten 30 degree maps. Happens a lot. 

Find the tweet. I'm pretty sure there was a twist to it like..."we can hope" or something like that. I've said many times on here, posting a day 10 80F map this time of year is akin to posting a day 10 GFS blizzard.

[Typhoon Tip]

Euro's D9 was mid 70s last night, too... 

It does this as part of the seasonal growing pains in the runs, every year guys.  You gotta let this marinade while you deny summer's coming - snark deserved!

Every year we do this, with a D8 70 to 80 ... and they gradually increase in frequency...until they finally get into the D4.  It's different every year as to when the successful relay into a near term happens - yeah, some years earlier...some later.  It's almost like timing the Coronavirus termination: at current statistical behavior, we should be there around the end of May ( before the Autumn apocalypse really ramps it up...).   Only here, we time it for maybe May 3rd ..? 

[Ginx snewx]

6 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

 

 

 

[mahk_webstah]

39 minutes ago, dendrite said:

So April is early spring, the beginning of May is mid spring, and the end of May is late spring. Fascinating.

 

really and truly...wtf was that chart?  I think he is creating a distraction after gaslighting Kevin

[mreaves]

5 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

 

 

I'd punch an old lady for the 63° depicted for me in that top map and I'd probably take a drive to that 74° depicted for Springfield, VT

[Ginx snewx]

2 minutes ago, mreaves said:

I'd punch an old lady for the 63° depicted for me in that top map and I'd probably take a drive to that 74° depicted for Springfield, VT

Mayorch is coming.  We will celebrate 60s in May after the next 8 day stretch of March weather 

[CoastalWx]

Obviously climo will slowly moderate temps, but I don't see a wholesale change really. If anything the EPO/PNA spikes a bit on the EPS. Once you get into May, it's all about the sun. Have sun, get 60s at least. 

[snowman21]

Getting some light snow here in the southwest corner of Connecticut. Didn't expect that. April 23rd is pretty late to see flakes around here.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Haha:

 

[CoastalWx]

LOL. 

[dryslot]

What a phony.

[Ginx snewx]

1 hour ago, snowman21 said:

Getting some light snow here in the southwest corner of Connecticut. Didn't expect that. April 23rd is pretty late to see flakes around here.

Congrats 

[klw]

3 hours ago, dendrite said:

So April is early spring, the beginning of May is mid spring, and the end of May is late spring. Fascinating.

 

Up here I typically view the seasons as:

Dec 1 to March 31- Winter 

April 1 to May 1 -     Mud

May 1 to July  1 - Spring

July 1 to July 15 - Summer

July 16 to July 31- Late Summer

August 1 to August 31-  Wait isn't this supposed to be summer why is that leaf red?

Sept 1 to Nov 1- Fall  

Nov 1 to Dec 1 - Do everything outside you can before the snow sets in while rooting for snow and hoping it holds off until the snow tires get put on next Tuesday.

 

There is of course some year to year variations.

 

[wx2fish]

Gem absolutely destroys SW NH Sunday

[CoastalWx]

Ukie smokes that area into 128. LOL.

[ORH_wxman]

LOL at Ukie again....

 

[CoastalWx]

Ukie hitting the cocktails early in this quarantine.

[Damage In Tolland]

Just now, ORH_wxman said:

LOL at Ukie again....

 

How’d it do performance wise with our storm last weekend?

[CoastalWx]

You could argue EPS was in the GEM/Ukie overall look. I wouldn't focus on snow amounts, but low position with those 3 sets of guidance wasn't far off. We'll see what 12z does.