Fear and loathing April, 2020 discussion, obs, and the occasional derailment

[Sugarloaf1989]

Cold here the last 4 days, BDL now 0.6F below normal for April. Leafout has slowed down significantly. 28F here this morning, should be 40F. Next week has temperatures below freezing again, ugh.

Less than 50 days to meteorological Summer.

[Torch Tiger]

beauty today, 63.7 currently

[Sugarloaf1989]

59F here and windy.

[Damage In Tolland]

5 minutes ago, Sugarloaf1989 said:

59F here and windy.

Did you lay out?

[Sugarloaf1989]

8 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Did you lay out?

No I've been staying indoors. Thought about going out to run some errands, but it's not worth the risk.

[ineedsnow]

I don't think were done..

[dendrite]

On 4/18/2020 at 8:18 PM, dendrite said:

So here we are on 4/18 and I have yet to hit 60F this month. I had a 60.0F on 3/20 although if you did ASOS 5-min averaging on my data my high would've been below 60F that day. That would push me back to 66.7F on 3/9 as my last day with a high above 60F. Just cheating and glancing at MOS, I could go without 60F for the entire extended period...

KCON   GFSX MOS GUIDANCE   4/18/2020  1200 UTC
FHR  24  36| 48  60| 72  84| 96 108|120 132|144 156|168 180|192
     SUN 19| MON 20| TUE 21| WED 22| THU 23| FRI 24| SAT 25|SUN CLIMO
N/X  27  61| 38  58| 28  56| 29  48| 23  58| 38  54| 30  57| 33 35 60
TMP  35  54| 44  46| 37  46| 36  41| 34  51| 43  47| 39  48| 42
DPT  26  35| 32  22| 28  29| 24  15| 22  29| 35  29| 28  24| 31
CLD  PC  OV| OV  CL| PC  OV| OV  PC| CL  PC| OV  OV| CL  CL| CL
WND   3  13|  9   9|  5  16| 18  23| 13  10|  9  11|  6  15|  5
P12   0  20| 36   6|  6  68| 37   4|  4  19| 29  20| 13   8| 12 25 24
P24      24|     36|     77|     47|     19|     29|     16|       37
Q12   0   0|  0   0|  0   2|  0   0|  0   0|  0   0|       |
Q24       0|      0|      3|      1|      0|      0|       |
T12   1   0|  2   0|  1  10|  7   2|  2   2|  1   2|  2   0|  1
T24        |  3    |  1    | 13    |  5    |  2    |  5    |  4
PZP   3   3|  0   0|  6   1|  0   0|  4   6|  0   2|  0   5|  2
PSN  23   0|  3  10| 15   0| 38  48| 37  11|  5   5| 17   1|  3
PRS   6   6| 14  21| 15   5| 19  22| 18  20|  3  12| 15  17| 12
TYP   R   R|  R   R|  R   R| RS   S| RS   R|  R   R|  R   R|  R
SNW       0|      0|      0|      0|      0|      0|       |

EPS and GEFS are caca right into May. A month of April here without 60F would be lol worthy. I'm pretty sure Kevin cursed this spring with his early torch talk.

So much for that. Overperformed today with 62.4F. Almost matched the 63F at CON...rare we match them for a high, but this is usually the time of year for it with no green up yet.

[Ginx snewx]

My windshield at 545 am as I went to the store

[Ginx snewx]

1 hour ago, ineedsnow said:

I don't think were done..

 

[powderfreak]

31 minutes ago, dendrite said:

So much for that. Overperformed today with 62.4F. Almost matched the 63F at CON...rare we match them for a high, but this is usually the time of year for it with no green up yet.

Yeah this is the time of year where NNE can torch with the best of them.  No greenery and usually dry air masses that become extremely well mixed... over-performing afternoons and high diurnal ranges at times (I know you know this, ha).

[STILL N OF PIKE]

1 hour ago, ineedsnow said:

I don't think were done..

I’ll take panel 5 or 6 or 13

Heck even 1 , 4, 7 ,9

[Ginx snewx]

UKMET 

[The 4 Seasons]

4 hours ago, Ginx snewx said:

My windshield at 545 am as I went to the store

That’s wallpaper worthy

[dendrite]

MEX is now down to 17° for CON on Thu morning. That would be the coldest for so late in the season which would be mighty impressive. 

[mahk_webstah]

33 minutes ago, dendrite said:

MEX is now down to 17° for CON on Thu morning. That would be the coldest for so late in the season which would be mighty impressive. 

That’s a disaster I fear for peach and apple trees.  Anyone know how to assess the risk of that?  I’d consider covering my trees as they are still young

[CoastalWx]

This pattern. 

[Damage In Tolland]

5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

This pattern. 

Snowers?

[Ginx snewx]

6 hours ago, The 4 Seasons said:

That’s wallpaper worthy

Love the intricacy of the frost growth patterns, how they look like leaves.

[CoastalWx]

2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Snowers?

Probably not, just crappy. Who knows though. Wouldn't shock me if we had one...lol.

[STILL N OF PIKE]

21 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Snowers?

Maybe around 6 pm Tuesday on the mastiff 

[tamarack]

11 hours ago, powderfreak said:

Yeah this is the time of year where NNE can torch with the best of them.  No greenery and usually dry air masses that become extremely well mixed... over-performing afternoons and high diurnal ranges at times (I know you know this, ha).

Yup - 59/19 yesterday, likely April's mildest and unless Thursday AM is colder, would also tie for month's coldest.

That’s a disaster I fear for peach and apple trees.  Anyone know how to assess the risk of that?  I’d consider covering my trees as they are still young

Buds on our apples aren't even swelled that much, so they're safe.  In one sense I'm happy for the cool spell - lowers the chances for a destructive May freeze, as happened in 1999 and especially 2010.

[kdxken]

2 minutes ago, tamarack said:

Yup - 59/19 yesterday, likely April's mildest and unless Thursday AM is colder, would also tie for month's coldest.

That’s a disaster I fear for peach and apple trees.  Anyone know how to assess the risk of that?  I’d consider covering my trees as they are still young

Buds on our apples aren't even swelled that much, so they're safe.  In one sense I'm happy for the cool spell - lowers the chances for a destructive May freeze, as happened in 1999 and especially 2010.

Even down here the apple trees have an advanced much.

[CoastalWx]

We have Norway maples on their way to leaf out. Already small green leaves emerging. They accelerated so much up to first week of April. Things have slowed, but yesterday they popped again. It’s about right for these awful weeds of the forest. 

[dendrite]

My forsythia is just trying to open up this morning. A lot of trees have swelling buds, but the apple is fairly dormant here as well.

Here’s a peach tree question that maybe @tamarack would know...if I chop back the central leader of a peach tree right in half and leave one original branch below it for this season (for photosynthesis), what are the odds I’ll get decent regrowth branching near the top to get a nicely shaped tree? The tree looks hideous so I may take a shot at it anyway. I know this method isn’t preferred, but I have seen a few people on YT try this with younger fruit trees. The diameter of the leader where I plan to cut back is probably an inch and a half diameter. There was some growth out of it last year even without any pruning. 

[dendrite]

1 hour ago, mahk_webstah said:

That’s a disaster I fear for peach and apple trees.  Anyone know how to assess the risk of that?  I’d consider covering my trees as they are still young

Maybe Phineas can still back out? This is horrible. 

[mahk_webstah]

44 minutes ago, tamarack said:

Yup - 59/19 yesterday, likely April's mildest and unless Thursday AM is colder, would also tie for month's coldest.

That’s a disaster I fear for peach and apple trees.  Anyone know how to assess the risk of that?  I’d consider covering my trees as they are still young

Buds on our apples aren't even swelled that much, so they're safe.  In one sense I'm happy for the cool spell - lowers the chances for a destructive May freeze, as happened in 1999 and especially 2010.

Thank you.  I'm going to give it all a close look today.  We havent gotten that cold yet but thurs morn worries me.  My hope is that once this pattern breaks we get some really nice weather.  Maybe the cold helps against the early pests on the trees?  I haven't sprayed anythign yet

[mahk_webstah]

4 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Maybe Phineas can still back out? This is horrible. 

unreal how persisent this is.  any sense of when we get a pattern shift?

[dendrite]

27 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said:

unreal how persisent this is.  any sense of when we get a pattern shift?

I haven’t looked at a lot so I’d defer to Scoot, but the little I had seen the past couple days made me think maybe after d10-14? Some of the models were looking warmer around my b’day May 4th.

[CoastalWx]

26 minutes ago, dendrite said:

I haven’t looked at a lot so I’d defer to Scoot, but the little I had seen the past couple days made me think maybe after d10-14? Some of the models were looking warmer around my b’day May 4th.

Yeah it’s into a chunk of May anyways. Weeklies even at week 4 looked questionable. But of course that doesn’t mean a few nape days can’t be squeezed in. Just speaking of the overall look. Eventually these deep cold shots will relax over the next few weeks as climo takes over. All you need is a sunny day and it’s easy to get to normal highs with BN 850 temps. Of course the airmass coming this week is just stupid.

[ORH_wxman]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

Yeah it’s into a chunk of May anyways. Weeklies even at week 4 looked questionable. But of course that doesn’t mean a few nape days can’t be squeezed in. Just speaking of the overall look. Eventually these deep cold shots will relax over the next few weeks as climo takes over. All you need is a sunny day and it’s easy to get to normal highs with BN 850 temps. Of course the airmass coming this week is just stupid.

I'm sure as soon as we get widespread +10C 850 temps, we'll be getting a wheel-o-rhea spraying Atlantic ass in our face for a week straight.