Fear and loathing April, 2020 discussion, obs, and the occasional derailment

[ORH_wxman]

5 minutes ago, Hoth said:

We had the same tease in Jan '19. Everything on the modeling looked awesome, Ray was crowing about how his seasonal forecast looked spot on, and then poof.

Yeah, though the 2019 pattern never looked like this one on ensembles...this was looking like 2015 for a while. 2019 was more like a better-looking gradient pattern late Jan and into February, with maybe a few spikes in the PNA mixed in....something like Feb 2014 which would have worked.

[Typhoon Tip]

[Typhoon Tip]

GFS has done this every years since about 2005 ... 

It fails to negotiate its way out of winter into seasonal change.  

Way back whence ... circa 1993, I remember there used to be winter algorithms and summer algorithms in the models - then it was the 'MRF'. I'm pretty sure..

I thought over the evolution that was no longer the case...but, the GFS did this last year and year before, and the year before that ...etc.., where it gets beyond day 10 and the whole fields goes back to Jan 15 at this time of year.  Interesting - 

 

[Typhoon Tip]

This thing tomorrow night ... I thought it just a 'spoke' of vorticity orbiting around a west Atlantic/-NAO spring cut-off climo, but it's more than that.  This is a 'hook and latter' Nor'easter.  The low is retrograding west and places the region inside its envelope - this isn't a mere spoke rotating around. 

[ORH_wxman]

1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said:

This thing tomorrow night ... I thought it just a 'spoke' of vorticity orbiting around a west Atlantic/-NAO spring cut-off climo, but it's more than that.  This is a 'hook and latter' Nor'easter.  The low is retrograding west and places the region inside its envelope - this isn't a mere spoke rotating around. 

Of course this happens now and not a month earlier. Though I guess we could say that about half of our April dystopia storms.

Happening now is more classic "wheel of 'rhea"....we might as well relive May 2005 for a few days coming up.

[forkyfork]

warm seclusions are the best

[Baroclinic Zone]

Couple more squalls

[powderfreak]

1 hour ago, snowman19 said:

The worst was Joe Bastardi, all winter long. I honestly question that man’s mental health. Dude is delusional, possibly has dementia. He really needs to retire, no credibility at all anymore, no one will ever take him seriously again, laughing stock of the weather profession

His bread and butter was made on appealing to winter weather weenies.  I remember reading him in High School like 2000 when internet weather was starting to take off.  Models on Unysis or something like that at the time.  

I give him credit because he seemed to have done well for himself.  I don’t agree with most of what he says but he saw a niche and controlled it for a long time.

[klw]

2 hours ago, Ginx snewx said:

They had 2019 Chevys 23 years ago?

And a whole bunch of Crossover Small SUVs other that Rav4 and very dorky boxy Foresters?

[Ginx snewx]

1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said:

Of course this happens now and not a month earlier. Though I guess we could say that about half of our April dystopia storms.

Happening now is more classic "wheel of 'rhea"....we might as well relive May 2005 for a few days coming up.

Day 9 Euro holy heck

[dryslot]

12 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Day 9 Euro holy heck

That would put us above avg for the season.

[powderfreak]

14 minutes ago, dryslot said:

That would put us above avg for the season.

Let’s go.  Only 36 more model cycles to go!

[dryslot]

30 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Let’s go.  Only 36 more model cycles to go!

Oh how i would love to throw this around to all the ones that were sooo happy with all the spring like winter we had, I told a few, Be careful what you wish for, We either get a front loaded winter or a back loaded winter some seasons.

[tamarack]

3 hours ago, powderfreak said:

Yeah in 2015 I was about 150 miles away from getting 120” in 30 days.  It was crazy.  Just missed it.

In the 54 days from Jan.25 thru March 19 that year I had 63" with up to 31" depth, nice AN stretch.  120 miles east and a mere 20' above high tide, Machias recorded 137" and the pack built up to 74" in mid Feb and stayed above 50" for more than a month.  Most frustrating "good" winter in memory.

Happening now is more classic "wheel of 'rhea"....we might as well relive May 2005 for a few days coming up.

Far, far less torturous in the 1st week of April than the 4th week of May.  In 2005 that week brought 5" RA over a 5-day stretch that never got out of the 40s except for one morning in the upper 30s. 

[Dan76]

1 hour ago, powderfreak said:

Let’s go.  Only 36 more model cycles to go!

LOL

[Lava Rock]

That would put us above avg for the season.

Still wouldn't feel like we had a good winter

[wxmanmitch]

The meteorology behind this incoming event fascinates me. It's basically a lot like the vast majority of events I've had this winter except rotated around 180°. So, basically a NEFE instead of a SWFE. WAA and overrunning from the NE instead of the SW with a big low to the SE as opposed to the NW. I start as wet snow and then go to freezing rain and rain like a lot of the events this winter. It'll be interesting to see how the terrain around here interacts with a veering NW to NE flow. 

Here's the SWFE in reverse (NEFE) sounding for 00z tomorrow night around here. Pretty neat. 

 

[powderfreak]

Mitch, it does look like the high terrain could grab a couple inches and then mixed before rain.  It is funny to look at the NE winds and go in the SWFE of p-type progression.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

I’d love to see the d9 euro pan out for nne. Heck, I would even take the drive up but I don’t want northerners running me off the road and squeezing the shotgun trigger because of my plates.

[NorEastermass128]

11 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

I’d love to see the d9 euro pan out for nne. Heck, I would even take the drive up but I don’t want northerners running me off the road and squeezing the shotgun trigger because of my plates.

I was thinking the same. I saw that map showed Saturday, but then remembered I might be shot because of my Mass plates. 

[HoarfrostHubb]

6 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

Probably the most disappointing aspect of this winter for a snow lover is the utter failure of model guidance in mid January. They were all signaling a massive shift to an extremely favorable pattern for New England around 1/20 and beyond. Then it just abruptly and completely disintegrated on model guidance inside of about 7-8 days...it wasn’t even a case of “oh it’s 12 days out”. It actually made it to like a week out when ensembles have pretty good skill in the longwave pattern. 

People were...what’s the word???...

”dumbfounded”

[dryslot]

1 hour ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

I’d love to see the d9 euro pan out for nne. Heck, I would even take the drive up but I don’t want northerners running me off the road and squeezing the shotgun trigger because of my plates.

 

47 minutes ago, NorEastermass128 said:

I was thinking the same. I saw that map showed Saturday, but then remembered I might be shot because of my Mass plates. 

How we miss Gov Lepage....

 

[NorEastermass128]

Just now, dryslot said:

 

How we miss Gov Lepage....

 

Gotta get up to Wells come the summer though. 

[dryslot]

Just now, NorEastermass128 said:

Gotta get up to Wells come the summer though. 

Make sure to hit up Mike's Clam shack or the food trucks.

[Torch Tiger]

38 minutes ago, dryslot said:

 

How we miss Gov Lepage....

 

2022 

[dryslot]

Just now, Dr. Dews said:

2022 

If he runs, He wins.

[Torch Tiger]

Just now, dryslot said:

If he runs, He wins.

maybe right,  haven't paid much attention to and not sure Mill's track record so far.

[mreaves]

1 hour ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

I’d love to see the d9 euro pan out for nne. Heck, I would even take the drive up but I don’t want northerners running me off the road and squeezing the shotgun trigger because of my plates.

We wouldn’t want you stealing our snow. 

[dryslot]

Just now, Dr. Dews said:

maybe right,  haven't paid much attention to and not sure Mill's track record so far.

She's terrible, The coffers have been emptied.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

2 minutes ago, mreaves said:

We wouldn’t want you stealing our snow. 

I just want to borrow it. Even not that so...maybe just touch it and run.