Fear and loathing April, 2020 discussion, obs, and the occasional derailment

[ORH_wxman]

9 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

It actually verbatim looks pretty elevation dependent.  Like 32-33F for you and 35F for BDL/IJD.  

Assuming it happens as the Euro is peddling.

If lift is good, it'll be 33F down to valleys too...and prob like 31-32F at elevation.

It's pretty classic for this time of the year...the models will overestimate the sfc temp in heavier snow and underestimate it when its really light.

 

Folks can think about it like this:

1. If it's "worth" tracking....i.e. a heavier event, then it's probably going to snow and accumulate down to the lower elevations

2. If it stays weak and light, it's probably white rain for most with light accumulations at elevation

[dendrite]

Hope the euro is right in keeping most of the QPF south of here. We just can't dry out. I have water bugs swimming around in the backyard where the huge puddles never disappear.

[CoastalWx]

2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

If lift is good, it'll be 33F down to valleys too...and prob like 31-32F at elevation.

It's pretty classic for this time of the year...the models will overestimate the sfc temp in heavier snow and underestimate it when its really light.

 

Folks can think about it like this:

1. If it's "worth" tracking....i.e. a heavier event, then it's probably going to snow and accumulate down to the lower elevations

2. If it stays weak and light, it's probably white rain for most with light accumulations at elevation

There is a decent airmass with this. Light S winds ahead of it, but decent cold going for this just off the deck. 

[CoastalWx]

Just now, dendrite said:

Hope the euro is right in keeping most of the QPF south of here. We just can't dry out. I have water bugs swimming around in the backyard where the huge puddles never disappear.

Clay?

[CoastalWx]

Might be squally tomorrow. Cold air aloft with that April sun. Probably dip n dots and flakes for many. Tonight is a fairly vigorous s/w too. Might be a decent band of snow accompanying it. 

[dendrite]

11 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Clay?

I'm halfway up my hill, but on the one flat portion of it. So all of the water seems to drain down 200-300ft to my area and just pools here before it drops off another 200ft toward the river just beyond my house. When I did my chicken run in 2017 we had a stretch of no rain for like 10 days and when I used the post hole digger the holes immediately filled with water right to near the top. It sucks. Maybe there's some clay too, but it doesn't seem that excessive compared to other places I've been.

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

12 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Might be squally tomorrow. Cold air aloft with that April sun. Probably dip n dots and flakes for many. Tonight is a fairly vigorous s/w too. Might be a decent band of snow accompanying it. 

Euro to be believed here with accumulating snow? Most models are meh 

[CoastalWx]

3 minutes ago, dendrite said:

I'm halfway up my hill, but on the one flat portion of it. So all of the water seems to drain down 200-300ft to my area and just pools here before it drops off another 200ft toward the river just beyond my house. When I did my chicken run in 2017 we had a stretch of no rain for like 10 days and when I used the post hole digger the holes immediately filled with water right to near the top. It sucks. Maybe there's some clay too, but it doesn't seem that excessive compared to other places I've been.

I dug out my fence posts yesterday that rotted, so I can replace them. I was shocked to see how much water was there. This yard dries out quick, too. My guess is either the ledge or clay is causing water to sit on top of it and just slowly drain. 

[CoastalWx]

Just now, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Euro to be believed here with accumulating snow? Most models are meh 

I think Will summed it up. It’s going to depend on intensity for low elevations. I think we’ll see some snow, but unsure of any accumulation.  It could also go to crap and move north. 

[NorEastermass128]

3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I think Will summed it up. It’s going to depend on intensity for low elevations. I think we’ll see some snow, but unsure of any accumulation.  It could also go to crap and move north. 

Even if heavy, I’m sure it will stick as close as West Gloucester and turn to 35F rain here. We need nape season to start!

[CoastalWx]

11 minutes ago, NorEastermass128 said:

Even if heavy, I’m sure it will stick as close as West Gloucester and turn to 35F rain here. We need nape season to start!

I could care less in mid April lol. Just give me sun so everyone is outside. 

[kdxken]

37 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I dug out my fence posts yesterday that rotted, so I can replace them. I was shocked to see how much water was there. This yard dries out quick, too. My guess is either the ledge or clay is causing water to sit on top of it and just slowly drain. 

Two words. Black locust.

[moneypitmike]

2 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

I don't see 28F unless it cools more. You typically want at least like -3C or -4C or so at 925mb this time of the year. If it wrapped up into a more of a CCB, then it's possible it could transition to that in the 2nd half of the event, but I'm doubtful. I'd expect paste....assuming this happens.

It could still crap out on us.

I'd be shocked.

[Sugarloaf1989]

No install needed for April, that's for sure. Hopefully not until Mid-May.

[MJO812]

Gfs barely has any snow

[CoastalWx]

1 hour ago, kdxken said:

Two words. Black locust.

Can you cut me down one, and make me some fence posts?

[moneypitmike]

1 hour ago, kdxken said:

Two words. Black locust.

Make for great firewood, but man are they splintery when you split them.

[STILL N OF PIKE]

30 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Gfs barely has any snow

For when April 20’th? Shocking 

[kdxken]

37 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Can you cut me down one, and make me some fence posts?

Sure. Just let me know height and approximate width

[kdxken]

37 minutes ago, moneypitmike said:

Make for great firewood, but man are they splintery when you split them.

Highest BTU wood east of the Rockies. I don't have any problem splitting it with a hydraulic splitter might be a different story with a maul

[Whineminster]

2 hours ago, kdxken said:

Two words. Black locust.

look for it near rail road tracks, urban river banks, and highway exit ramps lol.  Stuff grows in the junkiest places, but great firewood. 

[tamarack]

3 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Maybe. But these deals seem to always cool to upper 20’s. Even the Napril ones 

Except for last week's?  Stayed 31-32 from when the snow pushed temps out of the upper 30s Thursday afternoon right thru the next morning when steady precip ended.

[dendrite]

Willow, thornless honeylocust (sunburst), and bald cypress will suck up the water too. I just don't want to grow any of those IMBY.

[tamarack]

29 minutes ago, kdxken said:

Highest BTU wood east of the Rockies. I don't have any problem splitting it with a hydraulic splitter might be a different story with a maul

Hickory and hophornbeam must be close and maybe Osage orange, though different sources show different relative BTU levels.  Black locust offers rot resistance equal to cedar plus lots more strength.  Not native to the Northeast but planted (and naturalized) in many places.

[Dan76]

2 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Gov Cuomo

 

 

[dendrite]

Just now, tamarack said:

Hickory and hophornbeam must be close and maybe Osage orange, though different sources show different relative BTU levels.  Black locust offers rot resistance equal to cedar plus lots more strength.  Not native to the Northeast but planted (and naturalized) in many places.

We had a hophornbeam come down last fall at work and I took some home to burn. I was surprised at how hot it burned in the pit.

[PowderBeard]

1 hour ago, moneypitmike said:

Make for great firewood, but man are they splintery when you split them.

I would take that over trying to split steel wool AKA elm. 

[kdxken]

7 minutes ago, tamarack said:

Hickory and hophornbeam must be close and maybe Osage orange, though different sources show different relative BTU levels.  Black locust offers rot resistance equal to cedar plus lots more strength.  Not native to the Northeast but planted (and naturalized) in many places.

As the strongest timber in North America, black locust helped build Jamestown and hardened the navy that decided the War of 1812, yet today few Americans have heard of it. The nation's taste in ornamental trees has changed fairly dramatically since the first street plantings were made in Williamsburg, Virginia, in the 1730s. 

[kdxken]

18 minutes ago, Whineminster said:

look for it near rail road tracks, urban river banks, and highway exit ramps lol.  Stuff grows in the junkiest places, but great firewood. 

Yep, they actually plant it where erosion is a problem. Grows anywhere.

[PowderBeard]

10 minutes ago, tamarack said:

Hickory and hophornbeam must be close and maybe Osage orange, though different sources show different relative BTU levels.  Black locust offers rot resistance equal to cedar plus lots more strength.  Not native to the Northeast but planted (and naturalized) in many places.

A great site for firewood geeks. 

https://firewoodhoardersclub.com/forums/resources/firewood-btu-drying-chart.15/ 

For heat output and seasoning times nothing compares to ash or birch imo. Easy maul splitting as well.