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Fear and loathing April, 2020 discussion, obs, and the occasional derailment

Typhoon Tip

By Typhoon Tip,
in New England

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weatherwiz
weatherwiz

We could be setting the stage for a MAJOR severe wx setup in May again!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

powderfreak
powderfreak

What a fukkin' sunset... Earth Day special from Mother Nature.

alex
alex

Cleared just in time for a great sunset

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tamarack

tamarack

Posted
Posted
2 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

23 years ago I had about 33 inches.

Beats my 15" on 4/1/2011.  :D

Since the March thread is moribund, I'll put my numbers for the month here:

Avg max:  39.9  +1.6  Mildest was 54 on the 9th.
Avg min:  21.1   +4.9  Coldest was -2 on the 2nd.  All but 2010 of my 22 Marches have gone subzero, though -2 is tied with 2004 for 2nd "mildest" monthly low.
Avg mean: 30.5  +3.3   5th mildest of 22.

Precip:  3.12"   0.50" BN  Wettest day was 0.78" on the 13th.
Snowfall:  15.5"  2.0" BN  8.7" came on 3/24,part of the season's biggest event,10.3" on 23-24.
Snowpack:  Depth briefly reached 21" at 7 AM on 3/24 but that day's sunny high 40s collapsed the powder to 15" by my 9 PM obs time.  Tallest at 9 was 18" on 3/1,2.

Temperature was D-level but snow gets a C, raised from C- (usual for snowfall 80-90% of avg) due to the 10" event, a nice if brief break from season-long meh..

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powderfreak

powderfreak

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said:

1992 Dodge Caravan....probably the most classic "mom car" of the 1990s.

Man what a game changer when they put two sliding doors and captains chairs in the back of that thing... then made the sliders automatic so mom could hit the button while you jump in with your hands full of soccer equipment...  HAD to have it.

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
Posted

Probably the most disappointing aspect of this winter for a snow lover is the utter failure of model guidance in mid January. They were all signaling a massive shift to an extremely favorable pattern for New England around 1/20 and beyond. Then it just abruptly and completely disintegrated on model guidance inside of about 7-8 days...it wasn’t even a case of “oh it’s 12 days out”. It actually made it to like a week out when ensembles have pretty good skill in the longwave pattern. 

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Brian5671

Brian5671

Posted
Posted
12 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Probably the most disappointing aspect of this winter for a snow lover is the utter failure of model guidance in mid January. They were all signaling a massive shift to an extremely favorable pattern for New England around 1/20 and beyond. Then it just abruptly and completely disintegrated on model guidance inside of about 7-8 days...it wasn’t even a case of “oh it’s 12 days out”. It actually made it to like a week out when ensembles have pretty good skill in the longwave pattern. 

yep, it was time to mail it in when that happened.    Models never showed anything but warmth and rain from that point on....

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snowman19

snowman19

Posted
Posted
15 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

yep, it was time to mail it in when that happened.    Models never showed anything but warmth and rain from that point on....

The worst was Joe Bastardi, all winter long. I honestly question that man’s mental health. Dude is delusional, possibly has dementia. He really needs to retire, no credibility at all anymore, no one will ever take him seriously again, laughing stock of the weather profession

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Brian5671

Brian5671

Posted
Posted
Just now, snowman19 said:

The worst was Joe Bastardi, all winter long. I honestly question that man’s mental health. Dude is delusional, possibly has dementia. He really needs to retire, no credibility at all anymore, no one will ever take him seriously again, laughing stock of the weather professional 

some including him using analogs from colder times, oceans were colder etc.   What worked in the winter of 60-61 is not applicable for today's baseline....

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Hoth

Hoth

Posted
Posted
31 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Probably the most disappointing aspect of this winter for a snow lover is the utter failure of model guidance in mid January. They were all signaling a massive shift to an extremely favorable pattern for New England around 1/20 and beyond. Then it just abruptly and completely disintegrated on model guidance inside of about 7-8 days...it wasn’t even a case of “oh it’s 12 days out”. It actually made it to like a week out when ensembles have pretty good skill in the longwave pattern. 

We had the same tease in Jan '19. Everything on the modeling looked awesome, Ray was crowing about how his seasonal forecast looked spot on, and then poof.

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Brian5671

Brian5671

Posted
Posted
Just now, Hoth said:

We had the same tease in Jan '19. Everything on the modeling looked awesome, Ray was crowing about how his seasonal forecast looked spot on, and then poof.

I've learned that if it doesn't come by late January it's generally not coming....you have a couple lucky outliers but for the most part we're toast if the pattern change doesn't arrive by then

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