Fear and loathing April, 2020 discussion, obs, and the occasional derailment

[Ginx snewx]

56 minutes ago, tamarack said:

Latest GYX map has my place in the 8-12" area.  Ranges for Farmington have increased from yesterday afternoon's 4/10/15 to 5/11/17 this morning, and they're now above 0% for 18+.  (Though not much above zero %)

https://www.pinetreeweather.com/discussions/storm-trend-cooler-more-intense

[HoarfrostHubb]

Some bangers in SNe

Some mash in NNE

[CoastalWx]

We watch next Wednesday?

[dendrite]

Some watch.

Some look away.

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, dendrite said:

Some watch.

Some look away.

I bet you have one eye open, squinted and looking at the euro op.

[wxeyeNH]

38.3/31  Will be fun to see how this unfolds for me.  Not expecting much to accumulate but maybe hours when it's snowing or going back and forth

[dryslot]

PF's favorite the 12z HRRR

[CoastalWx]

21 minutes ago, dryslot said:

PF's favorite the 12z HRRR

Sell those amounts at 10:1.

[dryslot]

2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Sell those amounts at 10:1.

Fuk

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Gray ME
1056 AM EDT Thu Apr 9 2020

...LATE SEASON HEAVY, WET SNOW LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON INTO
FRIDAY...

.A quick developing and potent storm system will approach the New
England coast today and cross the region by Friday. Temperatures
will fall this afternoon and level off very close to freezing for
much of the northern half of the area. This could mean the
rain/snow line will move quickly over a short period of time
resulting in large differences in snowfall amounts over a small
distances. In the warning area, the majority of the precipitation
is anticipated to fall as snow with significant accumulations and
periods of heavy snow possible.

MEZ020-033-092300-
/O.UPG.KGYX.WW.Y.0014.200409T1800Z-200410T1200Z/
/O.EXA.KGYX.WS.W.0007.200409T1800Z-200410T1200Z/
Androscoggin-Interior Cumberland Highlands-
Including the cities of Greene, Lewiston, Sabattus, Wales, Minot,
Turner, Auburn, Livermore Falls, Bridgton, Harrison, and Naples
1056 AM EDT Thu Apr 9 2020

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO
8 AM EDT FRIDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 3 to
  11 inches expected.

* WHERE...Androscoggin and Interior Cumberland Highlands
  Counties.

* WHEN...From 2 PM this afternoon to 8 AM EDT Friday.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. The hazardous
  conditions could impact the morning or evening commute.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If you must travel, keep an extra flashlight, food, and water in
your vehicle in case of an emergency.

For a more precise forecast for your specific location...go to
www.weather.gov/gray.

&&

$$

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

3-11”? Interesting range.

[ORH_wxman]

Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

3-11”? Interesting range.

Prob gonna be a big elevation component. You'll have 33F paste down at 200-500 feet and maybe 31-32F paste over 1000 feet.

[CoastalWx]

3-11" is completely understandable like Will said. Maybe if it were broken down by elevation ranges it would help, but that's a lot of work for the office.

[dryslot]

5 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

3-11”? Interesting range.

I'm thinking this will be in the 7:1 range here.

[dryslot]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

3-11" is completely understandable like Will said. Maybe if it were broken down by elevation ranges it would help, but that's a lot of work for the office.

The county i'm in goes from the coastal plain where i am  to the foothills in the northern part so yeah, They would have to split it which they don't do.

[dryslot]

Right on the fence here

[dendrite]

I like the effort there to put in 24”+ for Katahdin. 

[dendrite]

7 minutes ago, dryslot said:

I'm thinking this will be in the 7:1 range here.

If you start as rain or accumulate slush early...maybe. But the rates will be impressive so anyone on the cold side of 32° will probably do better. Even at 32.5° it’ll pound. Waiting until sunrise to measure will hurt some too. Should be fun up there, but I’m glad it’s you and not me. lol

[STILL N OF PIKE]

2 hours ago, dendrite said:

Some watch.

Some look away.

Some are driving north now. Don’t worry we are social distancing. 

Kanc Bound

[alex]

Started as rain here with some fat flakes mixing in occasionally. 41/35 so temp has a way to go

[dryslot]

Just now, dendrite said:

If you start as rain or accumulate slush early...maybe. But the rates will be impressive so anyone on the cold side of 32° will probably do better. Even at 32.5° it’ll pound. Waiting until sunrise to measure will hurt some too. Should be fun up there, but I’m glad it’s you and not me. lol

I think the key is when dynamics kick in and how soon we flip for here, I'll measure after the 6hr period it looks to pound, If i wait until morning, There will be some accumulation lost to compaction, Rates should be in 1-2"/hr range, And i wish it wasn't me truthfully.

[dryslot]

8 minutes ago, dendrite said:

I like the effort there to put in 24”+ for Katahdin. 

As well as some higher mtn peaks to my NW.

[powderfreak]

6 minutes ago, dryslot said:

As well as some higher mtn peaks to my NW.

I’ve noticed GYX doesn’t usually paint the terrain with the detail BTV often does.... around here it’s like these little max zones scattered everywhere with the peaks in every event lol.

Like the detail on today’s map!

 

[dryslot]

2 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

I’ve noticed GYX doesn’t usually paint the terrain with the detail BTV often does.... around here it’s like these little max zones scattered everywhere with the peaks in every event lol.

Like the detail on today’s map!

 

This forecast is changing by the hour.....lol

MEZ012>014-020>022-033-092330-
/O.CON.KGYX.WS.W.0007.200409T1800Z-200410T1200Z/
Southern Oxford-Southern Franklin-Southern Somerset-Androscoggin-
Kennebec-Interior Waldo-Interior Cumberland Highlands-
Including the cities of Bethel, Bryant Pond, Hanover,
Locke Mills, Milton, Newry, Rumford, Norway, Fryeburg, Oxford,
Farmington, New Sharon, New Vineyard, Temple, Wilton,
Chesterville, Jay, Athens, Cornville, Skowhegan, Palmyra,
Pittsfield, Embden, Madison, Greene, Lewiston, Sabattus, Wales,
Minot, Turner, Auburn, Livermore Falls, Augusta, Sidney, Windsor,
Vassalboro, Waterville, China, Palermo, Brooks, Jackson, Knox,
Liberty, Montville, Morrill, Waldo, Winterport, Unity, Bridgton,
Harrison, and Naples
1125 AM EDT Thu Apr 9 2020

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM EDT FRIDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 4 to 14
inches expected.

* WHERE...Portions of south central, southwest and western Maine.

* WHEN...Until 8 AM EDT Friday.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult to impossible. The
hazardous conditions could impact the morning or evening
commute.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If you must travel, keep an extra flashlight, food, and water in
your vehicle in case of an emergency.

For a more precise forecast for your specific location...go to
www.weather.gov/gray..

&&

[alex]

Just flipped to snow here with enormous flakes and still some rain mixed in. By the way, old camera not working but there’s a link to my Nest camera in my signature 

[wxeyeNH]

1 minute ago, alex said:

Just flipped to snow here with enormous flakes and still some rain mixed in. By the way, old camera not working but there’s a link to my Nest camera in my signature 

Just checked out your cam and saw the snow.  Also snowing on the Waterville Valley webcam.

Here 39/37F light rain

[alex]

11 minutes ago, wxeyeNH said:

Just checked out your cam and saw the snow.  Also snowing on the Waterville Valley webcam.

Here 39/37F light rain

This camera shows the snow much less than the other one for some reason. It’s 100% snow now but you can hardly see it on the camera. But whatever, temp is dropping - now 37/32, and it’s snowing.

[tamarack]

39 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

3-11" is completely understandable like Will said. Maybe if it were broken down by elevation ranges it would help, but that's a lot of work for the office.

More like SE to NW (Jeff to Bridgton) perhaps?  Our zone got bumped from 4-10 to 4-14.   Light rain arrived 11:40, near 40° but feels colder.  Expect mix to start when precip gets heavier.

[dryslot]

1 minute ago, tamarack said:

More like SE to NW (Jeff to Bridgton) perhaps?  Our zone got bumped from 4-10 to 4-14.   Light rain arrived 11:40, near 40° but feels colder.  Expect mix to start when precip gets heavier.

Yeah, They lumped me in with you now, Should be quite a dynamic system and who knows where we end up until i measure it.

[STILL N OF PIKE]

39f at 650’ Thornton NH

[powderfreak]

Love that 4-14" range.... when you really don't know and it is entirely possible it's 4" or 12"+.