Fear and loathing April, 2020 discussion, obs, and the occasional derailment

[Torch Tiger]

1 hour ago, HimoorWx said:

Back in the day (early 1970s), there was rock that sounded a whole lot more country that what passes for country these days . . . Gram Parsons and Emmylou Harris . . .

 

BW Stevenson was the best country/top 40 crossover of that time imo

[Ginx snewx]

Alicia Bentley's site -6 sigma storm.. hang on Maniacs

[MJO812]

36 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Alicia Bentley's site -6 sigma storm.. hang on Maniacs

Too bad this wasnt near the benchmark 

[Angus]

Graham Parsons played Cosmic American Music.

[powderfreak]

1 hour ago, Ginx snewx said:

Alicia Bentley's site -6 sigma storm.. hang on Maniacs

 

Some potent dynamics with this one.

[powderfreak]

lol... can't avoid the Herpes, even straight to the coast.

[powderfreak]

With the snow maps, I think anything shown less than 6" is a wash, maybe a coating to 2". 

There's a lot of QPF over 24-36 hours, anything under 6" probably loses most of it to low ratios, white rain, etc. 

But they do show the max zones that could get hit with plowable snowfall.

[dryslot]

The key here is how fast the column can cool while the better dynamics are in play to go from white rain to mash potatoes.

[powderfreak]

Yeah, it will be fun to watch for you guys.  Some interesting weather finally. 

Up here it's a different animal but same "system".  I don't think we have any shot at dynamically cooling the column over in most of Vermont (high terrain in far NEK?)...the low is bombing right next to you guys, we are removed from those dynamics.  The upper mountain slopes will be snow above 2,500ft probably in this area, but where most live its a cold rain tomorrow.

Our chances for snow back this way come when the deeper moisture wraps back around for the second time.  Atmosphere should be colder and the orographic signal on progs is pretty strong for the mountains at this time.

 

[dryslot]

7 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Yeah, it will be fun to watch for you guys.  Some interesting weather finally. 

Up here it's a different animal but same "system".  I don't think we have any shot at dynamically cooling the column over in most of Vermont (high terrain in far NEK?)...the low is bombing right next to you guys, we are removed from those dynamics.  The upper mountain slopes will be snow above 2,500ft probably in this area, but where most live its a cold rain tomorrow.

Our chances for snow back this way come when the deeper moisture wraps around for the second time.  Atmosphere should be colder and the orographic signal on progs is pretty strong for the mountains at this time.

 

Something i never get to experience or have to consider or factor in any system............

[OceanStWx]

So I can't find anything besides the RAP that gives me less than 8" in AUG. And that's because the RAP cuts off after 3 hours of snow before 00z. 

[CT Valley Snowman]

9 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

So I can't find anything besides the RAP that gives me less than 8" in AUG. And that's because the RAP cuts off after 3 hours of snow before 00z. 

Snowmaps and Advisories/Warnings do seem pretty conservative fom GYX which is understandable given time of year and elevation closer to the coast etc , however, like you and others have mentioned ,once the dynamics take over there could be a pretty significant paste job.   Perhaps the warnings and advisories can expand southward in some areas.  AUG doesn't even have an advisory .  I would think north and west of there in Kennebec county , places like Livermore or Vienna could get smoked even harder and don't even have an advisory. 

[OceanStWx]

6 minutes ago, CTValleySnowMan said:

Snowmaps and Advisories/Warnings do seem pretty conservative fom GYX which is understandable given time of year and elevation closer to the coast etc , however, like you and others have mentioned ,once the dynamics take over there could be a pretty significant paste job.   Perhaps the warnings and advisories can expand southward in some areas.  AUG doesn't even have an advisory .  I would think north and west of there in Kennebec county , places like Livermore or Vienna could get smoked even harder and don't even have an advisory. 

I'm definitely taking them up, the question is how far.

It's going to be a really close call for GYX.

[Lava Rock]

I'm definitely taking them up, the question is how far.
It's going to be a really close call for GYX.

All rain please. Don't need to pay the plow guy again for something that melts the next day

[tamarack]

15 hours ago, Ginx snewx said:

Is this your lat long

44.666 and 70.027 according to cocorahs, and I assume that's from data I provided.

[OceanStWx]

2 minutes ago, Lava Rock said:

All rain please. Don't need to pay the plow guy again for something that melts the next day

700'? You're effed.

Seriously though, I went "pessimistic" and used Bufkit max temp in profile snow ratios (since this will be a relatively warm storm). With that and compaction it still spits out between 2.5 and 10" at GYX across the suite of models. 

The wild part is that most of the damage is done in 3 to 4 hours across the area. 

[CoastalWx]

9 minutes ago, Lava Rock said:

6 hours ago, OceanStWx said:

I'm definitely taking them up, the question is how far.
It's going to be a really close call for GYX.

All rain please. Don't need to pay the plow guy again for something that melts the next day

Why pay? You'll be able to go through it I bet. 

[tamarack]

Latest GYX map has my place in the 8-12" area.  Ranges for Farmington have increased from yesterday afternoon's 4/10/15 to 5/11/17 this morning, and they're now above 0% for 18+.  (Though not much above zero %)

[CoastalWx]

Looks like some triple point sizzle down here this aftn.

[dendrite]

The rain in Maine falls mainly on those who complain.

[Damage In Tolland]

8 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Looks like some triple point sizzle down here this aftn.

Damage

[CoastalWx]

2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Damage

Don't expect any.

[Damage In Tolland]

3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Don't expect any.

I am expecting widespread 

[CoastalWx]

2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

I am expecting widespread 

Won't be any. Maybe a few with hail.

[dryslot]

Mr Hanes needed his snow goggles adjusted, Every model had snow here, Scattered loss of power in the cards, Sucks.

[Damage In Tolland]

2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Won't be any. Maybe a few with hail.

With models pounding 50-60 gusts regionwide . Some trees coming down 

[dendrite]

1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

With models pounding 50-60 gusts regionwide . Some trees coming down 

Better chance of COVID damage in Tolland today. 

[dryslot]

41 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

700'? You're effed.

Seriously though, I went "pessimistic" and used Bufkit max temp in profile snow ratios (since this will be a relatively warm storm). With that and compaction it still spits out between 2.5 and 10" at GYX across the suite of models. 

The wild part is that most of the damage is done in 3 to 4 hours across the area. 

Ha, I joked a page or two back about a 0-10" range, I guess i wasn't far off.

[CoastalWx]

7 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Ha, I joked a page or two back about a 0-10" range, I guess i wasn't far off.

Seems like a flash over may not last too long for you? I feel like the RH in the DGZ moves out fairly quick. After that, any snow should be lighter and more cruddy. It's tricky where you are for sure. I mean even 3-4" of man paste could cause issues. 

[dryslot]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

Seems like a flash over may not last too long for you? I feel like the RH in the DGZ moves out fairly quick. After that, any snow should be lighter and more cruddy. It's tricky where you are for sure. I mean even 3-4" of man paste could cause issues. 

Its been a close call from the get go here, I think 3-5" or so is possible, Its when it flashes that's the key, It will be a nowcast deal, Its that 21z-03z period were going to have to watch.