Fear and loathing April, 2020 discussion, obs, and the occasional derailment

[CoastalWx]

38 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

I kinda feel like we're going to slapped up here. Someone just north of this low is going flash over to paste, and it could be GYX/LEW.

The dynamics are sick. 850 passes pretty close to you guys..I'd probably want to be north of that. You guys probably will flash to some paste for sure. 

[CoastalWx]

4 minutes ago, Snowcrazed71 said:

Still showing snow in ct? 

More for CNE/NNE. Low goes over SE MA, that isn't going to be snow in SNE come April.

[OceanStWx]

5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

The dynamics are sick. 850 passes pretty close to you guys..I'd probably want to be north of that. You guys probably will flash to some paste for sure. 

Negative tilt, left exit, a little warm season juice from down south...

[CoastalWx]

2 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

Negative tilt, left exit, a little warm season juice from down south...

Don't forget a little Ozone sniffing too.

[Ginx snewx]

37 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Don't forget a little Ozone sniffing too.

Congrats to many Maniacs,  sick lift

[ORH_wxman]

That airmass later next week is pretty sick on most guidance. What a sick pattern for mid April. Better snow thicknesses than we saw half of winter. Lol. 

[Ginx snewx]

9 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

That airmass later next week is pretty sick on most guidance. What a sick pattern for mid April. Better snow thicknesses than we saw half of winter. Lol. 

I just went thru the EPS projected surface to 700 temps for many areas in New England.  That's sick for mid April.  Any notable Mid late April snowstorms in your memory?

[dryslot]

1 hour ago, Ginx snewx said:

Jeff just threw his keyboard out the window 

 

[Ginx snewx]

Just now, dryslot said:

 

Man you might get a foot or maybe cat paws, you might drive 5 miles north and see an incredible paste job. My bud in Sumner is going to get smoked

[dryslot]

Just now, Ginx snewx said:

Man you might get a foot or maybe cat paws, you might drive 5 miles north and see an incredible paste job. My bud in Sumner is going to get smoked

There has been a few this winter same scenario missing by just about 5-10 miles or so, That whole foothill zone of Buckfield/Sumner-RUM up to the ski areas are going to get pummeled.

[dryslot]

Smoked for some.

 

 

[CoastalWx]

Yeah there is a 5- 7 day or so window late next week and beyond of a blue bomber. 

[CoastalWx]

Friday may be a Ginxy squalls day. Maybe one of those deals with some small hail/dip n dots as temps aloft frigid. Flakes in the hills.

[dendrite]

I guess the positive out of this is when we flip back warm we can install. 

[wxeyeNH]

1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said:

That airmass later next week is pretty sick on most guidance. What a sick pattern for mid April. Better snow thicknesses than we saw half of winter. Lol. 

I really have not looked at later next week.  I hope the airmass doesn't dive too far south since I'm guessing fruit trees are way ahead of schedule.

[Modfan2]

1 hour ago, Ginx snewx said:

I just went thru the EPS projected surface to 700 temps for many areas in New England.  That's sick for mid April.  Any notable Mid late April snowstorms in your memory?

The May snow storm in the late 70’s that gave ORH a decent dump might be similar??

[tamarack]

3 hours ago, OceanStWx said:

I kinda feel like we're going to slapped up here. Someone just north of this low is going flash over to paste, and it could be GYX/LEW.

Getting close enough to almost be real.  April storm forecasts 3-4 days out have been fails in recent years - 2016 and 2017.1 slipped south - and even WS warned storms have underperformed here - 2017.2 and last April.
GYX's 90%/expected/10% last evening for Farmington was <1"/4"/14", crazy wide range though understandable for a tightrope April event.  This morning it's 4"/10"/15" and spots in the western mts have significant (>10%) odds of 18"+.  Could get interesting, could miss by 1°C or a few mb less strengthening and be a total slopfest under 1000'.

[tamarack]

52 minutes ago, Modfan2 said:

The May snow storm in the late 70’s that gave ORH a decent dump might be similar??

They got something like 17" on April 28-29, 1987.  Only about 7" for central Maine and the foothills.

[dendrite]

Excited for my cold rain. 

[dryslot]

11 minutes ago, tamarack said:

Getting close enough to almost be real.  April storm forecasts 3-4 days out have been fails in recent years - 2016 and 2017.1 slipped south - and even WS warned storms have underperformed here - 2017.2 and last April.
GYX's 90%/expected/10% last evening for Farmington was <1"/4"/14", crazy wide range though understandable for a tightrope April event.  This morning it's 4"/10"/15" and spots in the western mts have significant (>10%) odds of 18"+.  Could get interesting, could miss by 1°C or a few mb less strengthening and be a total slopfest under 1000'.

Hopefully its the Nam being the Nam and its wrong like most of the time.

[dryslot]

1 minute ago, dendrite said:

Excited for my cold rain. 

Don't forget a few G20's

[Typhoon Tip]

Meh... I like the Euro for Sunday ... day has ginormous diurnal potential, with surface -ridging induced calm and likely deep DP decoupled air, the morning is very chilly, but the "dry warm frontal passage" appeal is very evident.  700 mb RH is low all day, so clouds are sparse, and the wind is W, while the 850 mb temperatures rise from -4 C (~) to + 5 C (~) over CT by 00z Monday. 

I could see that day surging from 25F to 64F in the CT river valley and it'd be warmer than that if the mixing gets better.   It's also trending in the run...which the the last three cycles have been showing more SE ridge influencing the general circulation up-down the eastern seaboard, gradually more so... So, we may not be done cooking up a warmer regime for Sunday and Monday.  And, the cold thickness layout others are gushing over ... that's been (typical for model behavior in April) modulating a tick or two less amped per run.  

I could see this breaking better than the mids/ext. complexions  ... Particularly in the GFS - that model seems to have 0 ability to seasonally modulate the hemisphere during the huge accelerations of spring.  It does this every year ... Take any initialization on April 7, and it'll absorb the present back into a January look by the time it gets to D10, instead... It's like running the physics organically proves that it is missing seasonal variance - interesting...  

Anyway, it's going to be obnoxious for warm weather enthusiasts... but there are reasons to recoup a few hours here and there which can help out.  

[MarkO]

4 hours ago, OceanStWx said:

I kinda feel like we're going to slapped up here. Someone just north of this low is going flash over to paste, and it could be GYX/LEW.

I'm borderline in Thornton. Do you think models underestimate dynamic cooling? I think that's my only hope.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

2 hours ago, dendrite said:

I guess the positive out of this is when we flip back warm we can install. 

We installed last month already when March 12 was roaring overhead.

[CoastalWx]

21 minutes ago, MarkO said:

I'm borderline in Thornton. Do you think models underestimate dynamic cooling? I think that's my only hope.

You may have a 3 hr window where you flash to paste. But I think I'd want to be north of you for the siggy amounts. Even in Maine.may need to be near and north of Tamarack given 850-700 low and pivot. Dryslot may move in quick near......Dryslot. LOL.  Maybe not before it flips. 

[wxmanmitch]

Not sure why people in Maine are complaining! I'd kill for a nice April snow bomb. So jealous. I don't care when it is, but I'm always in snowstorm mode. Besides it'll probably melt within  few days or a week anyways. 

My best hope is for some upslope Thursday night and Friday after the cold rain and possible low topped convection. Maybe I get an inch or two. The NAMmy is up to its usual nonsense of putting out a foot+ of upslope here. 

[HoarfrostHubb]

The last snow pile that I know of in my neighborhood is now gone. A little was still there in the morning yesterday 

[MarkO]

There are a few natural patches in the woods up here (and a solid foot up at Waterville on the hiking trails). But it's looking like we're through mud season and onto spring. Maybe I can squeeze out a couple inches of mashed tomorrow.

[tamarack]

34 minutes ago, wxmanmitch said:

Not sure why people in Maine are complaining! I'd kill for a nice April snow bomb. So jealous. I don't care when it is, but I'm always in snowstorm mode. Besides it'll probably melt within  few days or a week anyways. 

My best hope is for some upslope Thursday night and Friday after the cold rain and possible low topped convection. Maybe I get an inch or two. The NAMmy is up to its usual nonsense of putting out a foot+ of upslope here. 

"Some" people - my lament was for big April snow forecasts that didn't verify, or verified to the south.  Of course, the snowblower gas tank is nearly empty.  The machine was running on fumes when I finished up the 3/24 dump, and not (then) seeing anything significant coming up, I didn't want to fill the tank only to have to drain it before putting it away later in the month.  Anything under 8" this time of year doesn't warrant using the blower, the trade-off being a few hours of waiting compared to hurling more driveway material onto the lawn.

[Ginx snewx]

6 minutes ago, tamarack said:

"Some" people - my lament was for big April snow forecasts that didn't verify, or verified to the south.  Of course, the snowblower gas tank is nearly empty.  The machine was running on fumes when I finished up the 3/24 dump, and not (then) seeing anything significant coming up, I didn't want to fill the tank only to have to drain it before putting it away later in the month.  Anything under 8" this time of year doesn't warrant using the blower, the trade-off being a few hours of waiting compared to hurling more driveway material onto the lawn.

I would be worried about power outages in the interior