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Fear and loathing April, 2020 discussion, obs, and the occasional derailment

Typhoon Tip

By Typhoon Tip,
in New England

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weatherwiz
weatherwiz

We could be setting the stage for a MAJOR severe wx setup in May again!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

powderfreak
powderfreak

What a fukkin' sunset... Earth Day special from Mother Nature.

alex
alex

Cleared just in time for a great sunset

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dendrite

dendrite

Posted
Posted

Looking like a quick burst of +RA here Thursday. Models have this outta here by 8pm. The 00z Euro really goes bonkers for interior ME with 962mb into Eastport. It takes a little longer to get cranking so maybe dryslot avoids most of the snow. New Sharon shellacker though.

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dryslot

dryslot

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, dendrite said:

Looking like a quick burst of +RA here Thursday. Models have this outta here by 8pm. The 00z Euro really goes bonkers for interior ME with 962mb into Eastport. It takes a little longer to get cranking so maybe dryslot avoids most of the snow. New Sharon shellacker though.

Its a close call, But i'm hoping the next few runs continue this trend of later development and further NE.

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wxeyeNH

wxeyeNH

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, dendrite said:

Looking like a quick burst of +RA here Thursday. Models have this outta here by 8pm. The 00z Euro really goes bonkers for interior ME with 962mb into Eastport. It takes a little longer to get cranking so maybe dryslot avoids most of the snow. New Sharon shellacker though.

No mix or change to snow at the end?   GFS has been a bit more bullish for me.  6Z Euro a bit better than the 12Z.   I wouldn't mind an hour or two of heavy snow.  Anything that would fall would be gone quickly so bring it on.  

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dendrite

dendrite

Posted
Posted
Just now, dryslot said:

That would be a couple sloppy inches on that run, The closer to the coast this tracks, And later development too, The less likely for siggy snow here.

RA to SN for you so you can slash those 10:1 amounts in the “blue” and “gray” ranges. 

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tamarack

tamarack

Posted
Posted
15 hours ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

1982 redux?

Not impossible that it could dump similar snowfall in places, but as the maps posted by ma blizzard show, a totally different animal.  Instead of the usual wet April snow like this one will be (at best), 1982 was midwinter powder.  From NYC, which has nothing else like it in their 151 Aprils, up thru CAR, that storm had a degree of anomaly that I would put behind only 9/38, 6/53 and the Octobomb for New England events.  (Also the greatest positive bust I ever expect to witness. :weenie:)

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dendrite

dendrite

Posted
Posted

That ptype near the transition seems a little overly aggressive given BL temps, but the dynamics may be good enough over W ME to help the sfc quickly drop to 32-33F. I'm still not expecting more than a coating here. It may just end up being RASN or a brief flip to end it.

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tamarack

tamarack

Posted
Posted
10 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

They always get the goods. So jealous.

They've not done all that great this snow season.  Both are significantly BN and haven't gotten any storms near to what parts of SNE had in early DEC.  Rangeley's biggest is 10" and while Jackman got 13 from that same end of Feb event, they had a near whiff on the Mar 23-24 storm, 1.4" while the foothills were +/-10".  A later bombo might leave them short on qpf and jack the hills of northern Washington County (and NB.)

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powderfreak

powderfreak

Posted
Posted
28 minutes ago, dendrite said:

That ptype near the transition seems a little overly aggressive given BL temps, but the dynamics may be good enough over W ME to help the sfc quickly drop to 32-33F. I'm still not expecting more than a coating here. It may just end up being RASN or a brief flip to end it.

That's pretty much what I think could happen here.  Maybe some white rain at times in the valley.

The backside could have an upslope response that looks colder, so we'll have to see what transpires there.

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