Fear and loathing April, 2020 discussion, obs, and the occasional derailment

[HimoorWx]

1.14 just since midnight.  Mud season is off to a great start.

[dendrite]

3 minutes ago, HimoorWx said:

1.14 just since midnight.  Mud season is off to a great start.

It's weird. We melted the pack in mid March and actually dried out for a couple of days. I was hoping we ended mud season early. Now it's back with a vengeance.

[CoastalWx]

Just over an inch now. 

[CoastalWx]

 

[dendrite]

Full body sanitizer? Maybe Will should do this after he grocery shops?

[HalloweenGale]

What's next for this system? From what I've seen, it's supposed to head E-SE into the Atlantic, near Bermuda.

[Ginx snewx]

1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

 

Nice,  Eweather took this shot in Marshfield 

[CoastalWx]

That's exactly where I was. Those two houses had work done after March 2018. I believe the one on the right is new...can see the pilings it is on. There was a house next to that contemporary looking structure on the left, but that was destroyed in March 2018. 

[amarshall]

Wind really picked up last hour.  Few pines snapped in town. 

[kdxken]

17 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

That's exactly where I was. Those two houses had work done after March 2018. I believe the one on the right is new...can see the pilings it is on. There was a house next to that contemporary looking structure on the left, but that was destroyed in March 2018. 

Rebuilt with government loans no doubt.

[Hoth]

1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

 

Kudos for raising the next generations of weenies.

[Torch Tiger]

thank goodness it isn't snow

[Ginx snewx]

50 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

That's exactly where I was. Those two houses had work done after March 2018. I believe the one on the right is new...can see the pilings it is on. There was a house next to that contemporary looking structure on the left, but that was destroyed in March 2018. 

That was in fact Eweather 

[Ginx snewx]

High wind warning for Cape and islands

[HalloweenGale]

9 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

High wind warning for Cape and islands

Power has flickered a few times.

 

[Ginx snewx]

19 minutes ago, HalloweenGale said:

Power has flickered a few times.

 

81 on the Cape several.over 75 

[OceanStWx]

27 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

High wind warning for Cape and islands

I'm trying to see how my correlations at PWM/GYX work outside our local area, but they would suggest peak gusts around 45 knots for the Cape based on the 12z NAM. 

Really have to get the 925 winds over 60 knots to give HWW a real chance, especially in a stable environment. These NE flow events tend to have deeper boundary layers though, with steeper low level lapse rates. 

[powderfreak]

CoCoRAHS a couple towns around got 4" last night... looked at it and man what a weenie spot at 2,010ft. 

[Ginx snewx]

1 minute ago, OceanStWx said:

I'm trying to see how my correlations at PWM/GYX work outside our local area, but they would suggest peak gusts around 45 knots for the Cape based on the 12z NAM. 

Really have to get the 925 winds over 60 knots to give HWW a real chance, especially in a stable environment. These NE flow events tend to have deeper boundary layers though, with steeper low level lapse rates. 

They are gusting high 60s lower 70s right now even a 81 at Truro

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, OceanStWx said:

I'm trying to see how my correlations at PWM/GYX work outside our local area, but they would suggest peak gusts around 45 knots for the Cape based on the 12z NAM. 

Really have to get the 925 winds over 60 knots to give HWW a real chance, especially in a stable environment. These NE flow events tend to have deeper boundary layers though, with steeper low level lapse rates. 

Wind is getting about as strong as it has been, but I think the NAM has been more or less correct with the idea of not bringing in 45-50kts this way. Even though it is howling just aloft based on TDWR.

[CoastalWx]

Yeah those meso stations on the outer Cape are 60-70+. 

[Ginx snewx]

4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Yeah those meso stations on the outer Cape are 60-70+. 

Crushed out in the open ocean with NE winds

[CoastalWx]

BOS 49mph now. Not bad.

[OceanStWx]

1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said:

They are gusting high 60s lower 70s right now even a 81 at Truro

That's also at 115 ft elevation on an ocean facing dune it looks like. 

I see plenty of 50-55 knots on the Outer Cape though. The farther you get out on the Cape the steeper the LLLR are and the more penetrating the LLJ gets to the ground. 

I tried doing the correlation for CHH too (since they have balloons too) and let me tell you there is no correlation to wind speed and gusts really. They are just exposed from every wind direction and that really messes with the data. 

[OceanStWx]

I think I grabbed 73 events with a CHH 850 wind of 50 knots or greater. I looked at 500 m wind, 500 m lapse rates, and depth. 

The multiple regression equation eked out 0.577 correlation. So those variables barely explained half of the variance in observed wind gusts (+/- 2 hours from balloon launch) at CHH. 

So there's something else factoring in for Outer Cape wind gusts. I think my method works quite well inland though, especially for near coastal areas (gets a little squirrely in terrain when 925 depths get shallow). 

[CoastalWx]

4 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

I think I grabbed 73 events with a CHH 850 wind of 50 knots or greater. I looked at 500 m wind, 500 m lapse rates, and depth. 

The multiple regression equation eked out 0.577 correlation. So those variables barely explained half of the variance in observed wind gusts (+/- 2 hours from balloon launch) at CHH. 

So there's something else factoring in for Outer Cape wind gusts. I think my method works quite well inland though, especially for near coastal areas (gets a little squirrely in terrain when 925 depths get shallow). 

You use 850 for CHH or 925 for CHH?

[OceanStWx]

4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

You use 850 for CHH or 925 for CHH?

I IDed events using 850 > 50 knots, and then used the 925 wind to do the multiple regression. Because honestly we're never getting the 850 wind to the surface. 

Oddly the 925 wind correlated better at PWM than the 500 mb did. I figured the closer to the ground you get the better, but not necessarily the case.

I also really need a level that models produce data for, because otherwise the regress is no good. I need something I can use to produce a forecast.

[Baroclinic Zone]

33mph peak in the wind hole of TAN. Closing in on 1” of rain.

[CoastalWx]

6 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

I IDed events using 850 > 50 knots, and then used the 925 wind to do the multiple regression. Because honestly we're never getting the 850 wind to the surface. 

Oddly the 925 wind correlated better at PWM than the 500 mb did. I figured the closer to the ground you get the better, but not necessarily the case.

I also really need a level that models produce data for, because otherwise the regress is no good. I need something I can use to produce a forecast.

I wonder if other things like isallobaric components etc. help explain winds on the Cape for certain events? Either that, or models (I know nam can do this) is sometimes too stable in the boundary layer.

[OceanStWx]

6 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I wonder if other things like isallobaric components etc. help explain winds on the Cape for certain events? Either that, or models (I know nam can do this) is sometimes too stable in the boundary layer.

I can (have someone else ) create an AWIPS smart tool using 925 wind, LR, and depth to spit out a wind gust forecast grid. It's a lot harder to calculate pressure gradient across an area and do the same thing. So that's what made picking the variables tough. But those three variables got me to about 80% of the variance in gusts.