Fear and loathing April, 2020 discussion, obs, and the occasional derailment

[weatherwiz]

This is in SW NH...right under where the NAM has some ridiculous fronto setting up Sunday night. This sounding is pretty ridiculous. Pretty decent unstable layer in there too. That would be some tree snapping snow

[CoastalWx]

Sunday night looks like it has good rates. 

[OceanStWx]

Just now, ORH_wxman said:

 

ORH on 4/28/87 in the 3-5pm period....that's how it's done.

 

METAR KORH 281900Z 04006KT 1/16SM SN FG OVC001 00/M01 A2995 RMK / SNOINCR 1/1/4 SLP149 P0012 T00001006 50007

METAR KORH 282000Z 05008KT 1/16SM +SN FG OVC001 00/M01 A2992 RMK / SNOINCR 1/2/5MYL SA 1952SA 1945 E60 BKN 45 77/39/2209/M PK WND 15 000 SLP138 P0014 T00001006 50012

METAR KORH 282100Z 05008KT 1/16SM +SN FG OVC001 00/M01 A2989 RMK 0 /72045 90409 SNOINCR 3/6/9 SLP132 P0019 T00001006

06z NAM did spit out a 5" in one hour at CON...

[CoastalWx]

Just now, ORH_wxman said:

 

ORH on 4/28/87 in the 3-5pm period....that's how it's done.

 

METAR KORH 281900Z 04006KT 1/16SM SN FG OVC001 00/M01 A2995 RMK / SNOINCR 1/1/4 SLP149 P0012 T00001006 50007

METAR KORH 282000Z 05008KT 1/16SM +SN FG OVC001 00/M01 A2992 RMK / SNOINCR 1/2/5MYL SA 1952SA 1945 E60 BKN 45 77/39/2209/M PK WND 15 000 SLP138 P0014 T00001006 50012

METAR KORH 282100Z 05008KT 1/16SM +SN FG OVC001 00/M01 A2989 RMK 0 /72045 90409 SNOINCR 3/6/9 SLP132 P0019 T00001006

That’s mind blowing 

[CoastalWx]

Time for GYX to use enhanced wording. 

[tamarack]

1 hour ago, Ginx snewx said:

That's a sweet Gennie too. Glad you have it man, at our age and all

Lost power at least 6 times (too many to remember) this cold season, starting with the gale last October when I had to cut my way thru a fallen tree to get to work and climaxing (so far) two weeks ago with our longest outage since the 1998 ice storm.

[Typhoon Tip]

I like the d-slope dandy faux warmth appeal on Saturday ... should be 64 F with mid Augie sun lazing the land between 2 and 5 pm, with light wind ..it'll seem utopic.   In a subtle way, it's an homage to 1997.  That Saturday was 62 F up at UML ...with high based fair weather cumulus, the tops of which were curling off to the S direction as though hinting Kelvin/Hemholdz wavelet in form. And the air seemed to almost shimmer at distances ... like heat on a savanna along with the exuberance of seasonal change ... as gaiety erupted and youth spilled out onto the commons round campus... ZOMB!    This won't do that... I mean, we don't have a -4 SD mid level gyre coring a hole in the atmosphere S of LI on Monday, but... just the cold anomaly is anchored in a slow moving L/W and gives sort of similar idea of mocking face smack weather change. 

Then Sunday is a transition dreariness ... and then overnight into Monday morning, 72 to 84 hours on the Euro, that might be the best chance using that particular guidance suggestion. So in the wee hours of Monday morning through dawn, for getting a marginal atmosphere with dynamics running over top to pull a surprise.  As Chris intimated, you can see during the afternoon that it tries to flip back to rain as the 'quasi' cold conveyor arc is [likely] too dynamically weak for the late April sun.

This hearkens to an email with some other site-non-participating Mets over the winter, this thing that going on with the climate over the last 20 .. and in particular, 10 years, with seasonal lag - at both ends for that matter.  These unusual October snow in the air if not outright on the ground, and even more frequently occurring in Aprils and Mays dating back to 2000 (roughly when both ends started statistically hockey-sticking those averages) is a bit too concurrent with CC to assume it is purely coincidental.  April's a smear month in that debate though ... because it's technically not a warm climate month and going back 300 some-odd years there's enough snow in there to suggest that's just prone to winter at our latitude/geological circumstance of continental loading happenstance.  The greater circulation eddy of the hemisphere is going to cause cyclonic curl over SE/E Canada because of the rest state PNAP bulge over the Rockies out west... and that lends to late chill..  ... but I'm digressing..

Anyway, over the last 20 years we've seen an odd sort of tendency for global off-setting cool region to set up somewhere near-by to eastern N/A to cause 2/3rds of springs to do this here.  It's just statistically demonstrative, too.  Prior to that ... going back over a hundred years, 'these shouldn't be happening'

[Cold Miser]

All kinds of epic frustration around these parts...Been that way since December and has only become worse with the Corona.  2020 is the year of the melt.

[OceanStWx]

37 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Time for GYX to use enhanced wording. 

Firing buns out of a t-shirt cannon this afternoon? 

[OceanStWx]

NAM coming in colder...

[Baroclinic Zone]

Sucks to be you C/NNE folks.

[dryslot]

12z Nam a tad colder then 06z, Right to the coast, Damit.

[ORH_wxman]

NAM hits MA pretty good too this run...and most of SNE with the CCB later in the storm.

[CoastalWx]

9 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

NAM coming in colder...

Ekster aiming and you pulling trigger?

[CoastalWx]

2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

NAM hits MA pretty good too this run...and most of SNE with the CCB later in the storm.

Can see how it’s rate dependent too.

[dryslot]

I wouldn't buy 10:1 amounts, More like 7:1 or so but some could see 10", That's a lot of precip falling and the bulk looks like overnight into Monday am on the Nam.

[ORH_wxman]

Even kuchera maps are pretty bullish....

The key is those rates...and obviously tracking the midlevels a bit further SE this run.

 

[kdxken]

Dryslotting all morning for the win

[greenmtnwx]

When was the last time anyone took anything DIT has said seriously anyway? 2005? the 90s? Textbook drama queen.

 

[Damage In Tolland]

3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Even kuchera maps are pretty bullish....

The key is those rates...and obviously tracking the midlevels a bit further SE this run.

 

Snow maps fetish 

[greenmtnwx]

3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Even kuchera maps are pretty bullish....

The key is those rates...and obviously tracking the midlevels a bit further SE this run.

 

West Wardsboro bomb?

 

[Amped]

54 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

This is in SW NH...right under where the NAM has some ridiculous fronto setting up Sunday night. This sounding is pretty ridiculous. Pretty decent unstable layer in there too. That would be some tree snapping snow

All models have been showing the best rates on the front end of this.  NAM  has a second deform band on the back end of the storm, that forms farther east than the first one.

[ORH_wxman]

Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

Snow maps fetish 

I posted it just for you....even you get a slushy inch while Ray is doing naked snow angels.

[CoastalWx]

2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

I posted it just for you....even you get a slushy inch while Ray is doing naked snow angels.

Latitude ftl 

[OceanStWx]

11 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Ekster aiming and you pulling trigger?

Ekster is off until the snow starts flying. I may bump, set, and spike this one all by myself. 

[dryslot]

Its probably worthy of a HWO at this juncture.

[Chrisrotary12]

NAM is impressive for my hood. From 55F to snow in 6 hrs

18Z

00Z

[Damage In Tolland]

13 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

I posted it just for you....even you get a slushy inch while Ray is doing naked snow angels.

I would think an elevation would do better this time of year than a valley floor all things being equal . That said though, I don’t see either of us getting much from this 

[mahk_webstah]

30 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

Ekster is off until the snow starts flying. I may bump, set, and spike this one all by myself. 

I didn't notice a hint to a snowier outcome in the overnight discussion

[powderfreak]

19 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

I would think an elevation would do better this time of year than a valley floor all things being equal . That said though, I don’t see either of us getting much from this 

Yeah if all things were equal the elevations would do better... but both would need to see the same temp profile, same lift, precip rates, etc.