Fear and loathing April, 2020 discussion, obs, and the occasional derailment

[Ginx snewx]

  On 4/11/2020 at 11:36 AM, Damage In Tolland said:

Installs!! 

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Heat has been on for a couple of days now. Too bad those dews come with 2 inches of rain. Rivers came way up last rain. Night crawlers everywhere.  Big trout time before the rain Easter Sunday 

[Ginx snewx]

  On 4/11/2020 at 11:27 AM, weatherwiz said:

Anyone else have dreams of a high risk last night? 

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No but I did dream getting risky with Amber Heard

[Damage In Tolland]

  On 4/11/2020 at 11:42 AM, Ginx snewx said:

Heat has been on for a couple of days now. Too bad those dews come with 2 inches of rain. Rivers came way up last rain. Night crawlers everywhere.  Big trout time before the rain Easter Sunday 

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Those dews may help with wind damage. Less inversion 

[CoastalWx]

Yeah could see some damage Monday. 

[Ginx snewx]

  On 4/11/2020 at 11:49 AM, Damage In Tolland said:

Those dews may help with wind damage. Less inversion 

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I thought you said Ryan was meh? Cold ocean direct flow seems to be an issue with that wind direction.  Dews are only near 50 in that Brian post

[CoastalWx]

  On 4/11/2020 at 11:53 AM, Ginx snewx said:

I thought you said Ryan was meh? Cold ocean direct flow seems to be an issue with that wind direction.  Dews are only near 50 in that Brian post

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Daytime heating helps. Won’t take much to mix a few hundred feet. 

[weatherwiz]

  On 4/11/2020 at 11:46 AM, Ginx snewx said:

No but I did dream getting risky with Amber Heard

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sounds like a high risk to me  

[weatherwiz]

  On 4/11/2020 at 11:56 AM, CoastalWx said:

Daytime heating helps. Won’t take much to mix a few hundred feet. 

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I was thinking of starting a thread for Monday but the only thing I don't like is the best forcing/dynamics kinda become a bit displaced and remain well west. But that doesn't mean we won't see isolated cells capable of some damage. Hell...GON gusted to like 61 the other day with that convection

[CoastalWx]

  On 4/11/2020 at 11:58 AM, weatherwiz said:

I was thinking of starting a thread for Monday but the only thing I don't like is the best forcing/dynamics kinda become a bit displaced and remain well west. But that doesn't mean we won't see isolated cells capable of some damage. Hell...GON gusted to like 61 the other day with that convection

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I was thinking more synoptic. 

[weatherwiz]

  On 4/11/2020 at 11:59 AM, CoastalWx said:

I was thinking more synoptic. 

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ahhh gotcha...yeah I agree

[CoastalWx]

  On 4/11/2020 at 12:00 PM, weatherwiz said:

ahhh gotcha...yeah I agree

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It does look like thunder is a good possibility with elevated CAPE.

[weatherwiz]

  On 4/11/2020 at 12:01 PM, CoastalWx said:

It does look like thunder is a good possibility with elevated CAPE.

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both NAM and GFS pretty aggressive with elevated CAPE. I could see a severe threat getting perhaps into Fairfiled County CT. I even think a small tornado threat could develop across parts of PA/NJ. Could be wild across the mid-Atlantic Monday morning. 

[Ginx snewx]

  On 4/11/2020 at 12:05 PM, weatherwiz said:

both NAM and GFS pretty aggressive with elevated CAPE. I could see a severe threat getting perhaps into Fairfiled County CT. I even think a small tornado threat could develop across parts of PA/NJ. Could be wild across the mid-Atlantic Monday morning. 

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National looks crazy but it seems these underperform and the low risks overpreform 

[weatherwiz]

  On 4/11/2020 at 12:21 PM, Ginx snewx said:

National looks crazy but it seems these underperform and the low risks overpreform 

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I think tomorrow will be a big day but I am a little concerned with the lack of a stronger EML/CAP in the warm sector and there could be a quite a bit of cloud cover. I think the overall tornado potential could be mitigated a bit.  

[CoastalWx]

Looks like next week may be further offshore on the EPS.

[Ginx snewx]

Geez the wind is crazy again today. 

[Damage In Tolland]

  On 4/11/2020 at 2:43 PM, Ginx snewx said:

Geez the wind is crazy again today. 

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Blows

[Ginx snewx]

  On 4/11/2020 at 2:44 PM, Damage In Tolland said:

Blows

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That what a 958 storm will do for days and days of wind. 

[powderfreak]

  On 4/11/2020 at 2:50 PM, Ginx snewx said:

That what a 958 storm will do for days and days of wind. 

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Yeah, still getting -SN up here too thanks to that wind hitting the mtns. 

Days and days of snow.

[Ginx snewx]

  On 4/11/2020 at 3:08 PM, powderfreak said:

Yeah, still getting -SN up here too thanks to that wind hitting the mtns. 

Days and days of snow.

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Wait thought the dog had his last days of laying in the snow already .....

[powderfreak]

  On 4/11/2020 at 3:09 PM, Ginx snewx said:

Wait thought the dog had his last days of laying in the snow already .....

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Yeah she did, until last night's surprise. 

Maybe today she'll have the last roll, ha.

Once the Upslope Machine is turned on, it's hard to completely shut it down.

[CoastalWx]

Wind isn’t too bad, but annoying. Temps in upper 40s. 

[Lava Rock]

Frcst fail. 45f and partly sunny turned into sn shwrs and 36.9f

[CoastalWx]

It’s nice down here. Almost 50.

[STILL N OF PIKE]

  On 4/11/2020 at 2:32 PM, CoastalWx said:

Looks like next week may be further offshore on the EPS.

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Ya we will punt that anomalous trough 

OTS 

[CoastalWx]

  On 4/11/2020 at 4:29 PM, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Ya we will punt that anomalous trough 

OTS 

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Go figure because it’s cold enough. The trough ain’t going anywhere.

[HalloweenGale]

51 here in West Dennis. Scattered cumulus.

[MJO812]

  On 4/11/2020 at 4:29 PM, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Ya we will punt that anomalous trough 

OTS 

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Most likely because the cutter shifted east bringing he trough more east.  Cant win.

[alex]

Social distancing, Bretton Woods style 

[Ginx snewx]

  On 4/11/2020 at 3:32 PM, CoastalWx said:

Wind isn’t too bad, but annoying. Temps in upper 40s. 

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Wow its cranking here