Fear and loathing April, 2020 discussion, obs, and the occasional derailment

[CoastalWx]

Still need to watch late next week.

[HoarfrostHubb]

Snowing one town over from me (Barre) this morning.  Sunny here 

[ORH_wxman]

  On 4/10/2020 at 11:32 AM, CoastalWx said:

Still need to watch late next week.

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Might have multiple shots at something. That trough is ridiculous. EPS is 3 sigma trough over the lakes at 144 hours...that’s hard to get on an ensemble mean at day 6. 

[mahk_webstah]

Wpc has a big cutter into the lakes early week.  Does that trend east or does that feed Blau king for late week?

[mahk_webstah]

  On 4/10/2020 at 12:02 PM, Ginx snewx said:

This is crazy, hand of God

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[ineedsnow]

  On 4/10/2020 at 11:59 AM, ORH_wxman said:

Might have multiple shots at something. That trough is ridiculous. EPS is 3 sigma trough over the lakes at 144 hours...that’s hard to get on an ensemble mean at day 6. 

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6z GEFS are a thing of beauty but does it hold?

[HoarfrostHubb]

Fake news

[ineedsnow]

Paul might get his high risk in the south.. 45 percent hatched day 3.. 

[dendrite]

Fakewall

[Baroclinic Zone]

[Ginx snewx]

  On 4/10/2020 at 11:59 AM, ORH_wxman said:

Might have multiple shots at something. That trough is ridiculous. EPS is 3 sigma trough over the lakes at 144 hours...that’s hard to get on an ensemble mean at day 6. 

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EPS snow mean is crazy.  

[ORH_wxman]

  On 4/10/2020 at 12:02 PM, mahk_webstah said:

Wpc has a big cutter into the lakes early week.  Does that trend east or does that feed Blau king for late week?

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Nah the cutter precedes the trough...we prob have a couple shots in the d6-10 range though. Extremely anomalous. We’ll see if the look moderates or not. 

[weatherwiz]

  On 4/10/2020 at 12:13 PM, ineedsnow said:

Paul might get his high risk in the south.. 45 percent hatched day 3.. 

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High risk is possible but I still think there are a few things that could negate a high risk...or negate a very significant event from unfolding. It's rather difficult to really portray what I'm trying to say b/c I think a significant event does unfold but I guess it's do we see numerous tornadoes with several long-tracked tornadoes or is it predominately a damaging wind event with several tornadoes? Obviously a large scale widespread damaging wind event can still result in a high risk verification and I think that is possible here. 

But two things that stand out to me are;

1) Weakening EML

2) Perhaps widespread convective debris

3) Not so favorable llvl lapse rates 

But given the forcing aloft, dynamics, and degree of moisture return a significant and long persisting squall line is quite likely...maybe derecho like. But the lack of an EML may prevent discrete supercells from being the overall game mode...perhaps many initial supercells but congealing into multiple lines. Could be war of updrafts  

[HIPPYVALLEY]

Some flurries here this morning. 

[mahk_webstah]

  On 4/10/2020 at 12:55 PM, ORH_wxman said:

Nah the cutter precedes the trough...we prob have a couple shots in the d6-10 range though. Extremely anomalous. We’ll see if the look moderates or not. 

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I don't need the hand from the sky to take a dump on my newly sprouting peas and spinach.

[ORH_wxman]

  On 4/10/2020 at 1:07 PM, mahk_webstah said:

I don't need the hand from the sky to take a dump on my newly sprouting peas and spinach.

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Biggest danger might be to early blooming fruit trees...esp in SNE though parts of CNE may have had some early action on those trees. There are going to be some really hard freezes if that airmass is anything close to progged. 

[mahk_webstah]

  On 4/10/2020 at 1:11 PM, ORH_wxman said:

Biggest danger might be to early blooming fruit trees...esp in SNE though parts of CNE may have had some early action on those trees. There are going to be some really hard freezes if that airmass is anything close to progged. 

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no greeen showing yet on my peach trees.  I really don't want that kind of freeze - climo says it backs off.  The hope is thatthere is enought wind at night, which has saved us before.

[HoarfrostHubb]

Wintry appeal on our dog walk this morning. 30s. Windy. Some snow and graupel 

[CoastalWx]

Clouds bubbling up, but windy and not too bad. Typical blustery Napril. 

[CoastalWx]

6z EPS definitely got closer. I guess the issue may be this being a flat wave and not something wound up, but that is a big thermal gradient at 850. There probably would be a heck of a deformation band if that happened verbatim. 

[crossbowftw3]

  On 4/10/2020 at 1:00 PM, weatherwiz said:

High risk is possible but I still think there are a few things that could negate a high risk...or negate a very significant event from unfolding. It's rather difficult to really portray what I'm trying to say b/c I think a significant event does unfold but I guess it's do we see numerous tornadoes with several long-tracked tornadoes or is it predominately a damaging wind event with several tornadoes? Obviously a large scale widespread damaging wind event can still result in a high risk verification and I think that is possible here. 

But two things that stand out to me are;

1) Weakening EML

2) Perhaps widespread convective debris

3) Not so favorable llvl lapse rates 

But given the forcing aloft, dynamics, and degree of moisture return a significant and long persisting squall line is quite likely...maybe derecho like. But the lack of an EML may prevent discrete supercells from being the overall game mode...perhaps many initial supercells but congealing into multiple lines. Could be war of updrafts  

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if this goes signifcant damaging wind event with several embedded tornadoes do you think it could be an even more volatile setup for that than 1/10-1/11?

[weatherwiz]

  On 4/10/2020 at 1:48 PM, crossbowftw3 said:

if this goes signifcant damaging wind event with several embedded tornadoes do you think it could be an even more volatile setup for that than 1/10-1/11?

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That's a great question. I don't think this will be any more volatile than that event but could be similar in magnitude, but displaced a bit farther west. Although one thing to keep in mind too is foliage...much more foliage now than January and that could produce more in the way of tree damage. I really don't think the full extent of the tornado potential will be known until late Saturday night or early Sunday morning. 

[jbenedet]

Take the over on Sunday. Looks like a gem. Going long 60’s for the bulk of us. 

[dryslot]

  On 4/10/2020 at 2:06 PM, jbenedet said:

Take the over on Sunday. Looks like a gem. Going long 60’s for the bulk of us. 

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Looks like a perfect fishing day, I will be at the lake, Lt winds.

[dryslot]

Updated totals from GYX, Some hefty ones in there

https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&product=PNS&issuedby=GYX

[ineedsnow]

  On 4/10/2020 at 12:39 PM, Ginx snewx said:

EPS snow mean is crazy.  

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Care to share?

[weatherwiz]

  On 4/10/2020 at 2:06 PM, jbenedet said:

Take the over on Sunday. Looks like a gem. Going long 60’s for the bulk of us. 

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For a second I thought you were talking about the severe wx  

[ineedsnow]

12Z GFS with several snow chances

[STILL N OF PIKE]

  On 4/10/2020 at 4:43 PM, ineedsnow said:

12Z GFS with several snow chances

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Yup,a couple more weenie drives late next week 

[dendrite]

  On 4/10/2020 at 12:39 PM, Ginx snewx said:

EPS snow mean is crazy.  

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Crazy like Sybil.