Fear and loathing April, 2020 discussion, obs, and the occasional derailment

[Typhoon Tip]

1 hour ago, jbenedet said:

 - - NAO, MJO phase 8, and a significant  disturbance all on April fricken 10th. We struggled to have 1 of those three at any given time throughout the winter season, but with mid April here, the weather gods will give us all 3 simultaneously. 
 

I'm willing to argue that these phases are concomitantly being suppressed this last winter by the HC expansion that is getting more pervasive with every passing season of accelerating climate change. As the seasonal height compression is relaxing, it's merely exposing opportunity for these flow structures to emerge. I actually personally anticipated this a month ago and posted that we'd head into a blocky spring - 

It's causing unusually fast, balanced tropospheric mid and upper level winds and propagating wave space speeds there in, and it's not allowing those meridional resonances to get feed-back established such flow structures such that they can persist for any length of time - they just get blasted and ablated away.  

The MJO at times this recent winter was incoherent, yet the pattern et al resembled a historically powerful phase 5 MJO much of the time for a reason ...separate from the MJO ( as logic therein dictates...); it's most like the cold normal hemisphere of winter in excessive compression against the expansion of the HC, which is garnering lots of scientific attention and is papered at this point. 

[powderfreak]

9 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

34" total here... pretty sure that's 3/5ths of normal (~)...  That's going by snow alone

Yeah that’s not great for sure.

[dendrite]

That's another good pounding for Maine on the goofus.

[tamarack]

2 hours ago, Ginx snewx said:

Paste, really bombs out 960 s near  Bar Harbor 

A few miles farther east might be preferable this late in the season.  Also, the Euro slp map you posted puts the center closer to Isles of Shoals, which would probably mean a howling flooding 35° northeaster for my area.

how close are you to average?

8" below.

Here it's 17" under, and only one April of my 22 here has topped that amount.  (2007, which dumped more than double!)

[dryslot]

We don't want our neighbors to our west in NH/VT to feel left out.

[metagraphica]

4 hours ago, Ginx snewx said:

Jesus what a shitty year snow and otherwise 

13.3" here at the junction of Salem, Montville and East Lyme if you want to add it to the map.

[Torch Tiger]

60.8, sunny

[Torch Tiger]

2 hours ago, dryslot said:

Yes it is weird when you look back just based on the numbers, I had said all along to many that were all joyus about the lack of winter earlier to be careful what you wish for, Many a season we either had a front end one or back end one and we did not get the front end.

on behalf of SNE, we hope you get annihilated with heavy wet snow with powerful winds. Congrats

[Typhoon Tip]

46 minutes ago, dryslot said:

We don't want our neighbors to our west in NH/VT to feel left out.

GGEM doubled down on the Freeport Maine blizzard of April 2020

[dryslot]

2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

GGEM doubled down on the Freeport Maine blizzard of April 2020

12z Euro spins it up later so the bulk of the snow falls over Northern and DE Maine.

[Typhoon Tip]

15 minutes ago, dryslot said:

12z Euro spins it up later so the bulk of the snow falls over Northern and DE Maine.

heh...I typed freeport but i actually had bangor-ish in mind... but yeah it's all probably a tick or two lat/lon too soon by those other guys.  who knows.

[dryslot]

2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

heh...I typed freeport but i actually had bangor-ish in mind... but yeah it's all probably a tick or two lat/lon too soon by those other guys.  who knows.

Yeah, It looks like Mid coast to DE Maine gets the goods, Fine by me.

[NorEastermass128]

I bet this just maxes out as a few inches of glop for inland ME locations that have some elevation.  It will fit the tenor of the dud of a season.  

[dryslot]

Most Western and Northern Maine areas are above normal on the season.

[Bostonseminole]

1 hour ago, Dr. Dews said:

60.8, sunny

62.6 sunny 

[Torch Tiger]

63.0, filtered sun but a beaut

[Cold Miser]

6 hours ago, Ginx snewx said:

Jesus what a shitty year snow and otherwise 

I must have been an anomaly in my part of Brooklyn,  I had about 22". 

I think my worst season ever, any where that I have lived.

[dendrite]

Awesome even with mid 50s. Deep, deep blues.

[Damage In Tolland]

Shocking the cold pattern is vanishing 

https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1247249748182085635?s=21

[Torch Tiger]

euro is epic D8-10. !!

[Torch Tiger]

yes please

[tamarack]

1 hour ago, dryslot said:

Most Western and Northern Maine areas are above normal on the season.

CAR is AN but Jackman is about 15" BN for ytd and Rangeley 21" BN.  If they get another 24" and 31", respectively, they'll hit the averages.

[dendrite]

Man you guys made me think a monster heat ridge was coming in. 

[powderfreak]

2 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Man you guys made me think a monster heat ridge was coming in. 

Ha yeah I got excited when I thought the Euro was Dews approved.

[Damage In Tolland]

2 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Man you guys made me think a monster heat ridge was coming in. 

That’s a huge change EPS last 4 runs. All the chill is Midwest /Plains

[Damage In Tolland]

There were doomsday posts and Ant was getting excited for snow 

 

[dendrite]

2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

That’s a huge change EPS last 4 runs. All the chill is Midwest /Plains

Not as bad as out there, but still kinda meh. Maybe we sneak a warm day or two in there if something cuts west. 

[powderfreak]

4 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

There were doomsday posts and Ant was getting excited for snow 

 

Sounds about right for your area.

Looks like BDL average middle of next week is something like 58/36?  Looks like 40s when its raining and 50s when its not on the MOS guidance. 

Take about 8-10F off that you said this winter for Tolland?

[powderfreak]

At least up this way it looks pretty seasonably chilly, maybe average a tick below?

Mins will be above normal with clouds/precip while maxes will be below normal with clouds/precip, ha.

Lower daily ranges than average on the MOS MEX.

One thing I don't like, is the sky cover over the next 7 days has 14 fields (two a day) and 12 of them are OV for overcast with 2 PCs.  Not a lot of sun coming up.

[powderfreak]

53/13 at the ASOS.

Thats some dry air.