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Fear and loathing April, 2020 discussion, obs, and the occasional derailment

Typhoon Tip

By Typhoon Tip,
in New England

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weatherwiz
weatherwiz

We could be setting the stage for a MAJOR severe wx setup in May again!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

powderfreak
powderfreak

What a fukkin' sunset... Earth Day special from Mother Nature.

alex
alex

Cleared just in time for a great sunset

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jbenedet

jbenedet

Posted
Posted
13 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Aside from wed-Fri it can’t get a lot worse. We’ve only had a few nice days. Just give me W-NW flow with some partial sun and it’s a win. Even if it’s 45-50 and a bit below freezing at night. cP this time of year isn’t too bad. mP is horrible. 

I think there’s more than hope for us on Wed. 50’s and sun is well within reach with the significant block over New Brunswick. Another “best weather in Maine” type day...

The price to pay for it will be Thurs. night into early Friday...

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Ginx snewx

Ginx snewx

Posted
Posted
Just now, CoastalWx said:

Effing horrible. I know rt 2 corridor on north wasn't as bad, but the period from mid December on was as bad as it gets. I would take 15-16 a thousand times over.

I blame the lack of snow on our current crisis,  just kidding but what a disastah 

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

I blame the lack of snow on our current crisis,  just kidding but what a disastah 

Yeah, just speaking for my hood. First half of December was fun, but another year where early snow and cold failed to foreshadow the rest of the season. Disappointing. 

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

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Posted
28 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Effing horrible. I know rt 2 corridor on north wasn't as bad, but the period from mid December on was as bad as it gets. I would take 15-16 a thousand times over.

mmm I live along Rt 2 (essentially) and it ranks probably #4 on the all-time list of having had the region's winter enthusiast head stuffed in Satan's ass

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tamarack

tamarack

Posted
Posted
2 hours ago, Ginx snewx said:

Maine is where the cold is deeper, omega is greater. Fully expect a 8 to 12 type snowstorm from interior Western Maine to the coast of Eastern Maine

In the 8 Aprils since the 4/1/11 dump, our area has had that kind of forecast 4-5 times without any reaching even 4", so seeing would be believing.
 

Ice is out early up here on two of the lakes I fish, Guess I’ll have to wait to see what happens late week, Was planning to go this weekend.

Long Pond in Belgrade is about 2/3 clear with only the N and S coves remaining, and the ice there is all black and probably won't survive today's sunny 50s.  The near-2" RA followed by Sat-Sun 50s took a 10" pack down to "trace" by last evening, ending the run of 1"+ at 146 days, not bad for a warm winter with 20% BN snowfall.  Getting 20+ days in November helps.

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dendrite

dendrite

Posted
Posted
35 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

I think there’s more than hope for us on Wed. 50’s and sun is well within reach with the significant block over New Brunswick. Another “best weather in Maine” type day...

The price to pay for it will be Thurs. night into early Friday...

Agree...as long as we keep the QPF south.

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

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Posted

The operational versions of every model are holding out on cold to the bitter end. 

The GFS is particularly atrociously either negligent of the seasonal forcing of oh ... a trillion-trillion-trillion-trillion-trillion ton perpetual fusion bomb eye-balling the hemisphere, or, it's going to succeed in a once in a 500 year cold pattern on top of a back-ground uncompensated GW signal...   

Hmm, which way should we go - I'm inclined to think that the it's just negligently constructed around solar fluxing.  It does this at this time of year, every f year... It starts out D2 through 5 with some semblance of in situ pattern awareness ( though mishandles it for other reasons..), then, slides right back into January. Go back the last 100 cycles of this model and look at any D10 ... it's more like a mild pattern in January at best, otherwise, just absurd.    

The GGEM and Euro, however, are also cold relative to the CPC teleconnectors, too.   That said, obviously these models don't give a ratz azz what the GEFs curves do; they are not part of the GFS' family genetics.  I don't know what the Euro or GGEM fields look like based upon their own ensembles ... but the EPS general appeals tend to rarely stray very far from the operational at the scales of pattern management, so.. they probably kill summer and never snow too 

I think the operational GFS is useless most late Marches into first halves of Aprils, more so than the usual head-scratching as to why that useless p.o.s. shit model is given its portion of carbon footprint to run at any time of the year beyond D4.   Going back several years, I distinctly recall it over and over and over, flooding lower Canada with mid January thickness in it's D7 to 12 ranges as a plaguing model bias during most springs. 

  

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Ginx snewx

Ginx snewx

Posted
Posted
20 minutes ago, tamarack said:

In the 8 Aprils since the 4/1/11 dump, our area has had that kind of forecast 4-5 times without any reaching even 4", so seeing would be believing.
 

Ice is out early up here on two of the lakes I fish, Guess I’ll have to wait to see what happens late week, Was planning to go this weekend.

Long Pond in Belgrade is about 2/3 clear with only the N and S coves remaining, and the ice there is all black and probably won't survive today's sunny 50s.  The near-2" RA followed by Sat-Sun 50s took a 10" pack down to "trace" by last evening, ending the run of 1"+ at 146 days, not bad for a warm winter with 20% BN snowfall.  Getting 20+ days in November helps.

Will be interested especially for you

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dryslot

dryslot

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, NW_of_GYX said:

Suppose that's achievable, weird way to do a winter. 

Yes it is weird when you look back just based on the numbers, I had said all along to many that were all joyus about the lack of winter earlier to be careful what you wish for, Many a season we either had a front end one or back end one and we did not get the front end.

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powderfreak

powderfreak

Posted
Posted
2 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said:

mmm I live along Rt 2 (essentially) and it ranks probably #4 on the all-time list of having had the region's winter enthusiast head stuffed in Satan's ass

What was your seasonal total relative to normal?

I know RT 2 further west wasn't all that far from normal.... I seem to remember Hippy being one storm from normal but he's way west.

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powderfreak

powderfreak

Posted
Posted

Crystal clear day finally with full sunshine.

Sort of has an October air mass feel though.... trying to warm up but really dry.

Currently 48/15 with 24% RH. 

That 15F dew point and a NW breeze is doing its best to try and not make it feel as warm outside as the sun would let you believe.

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

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29 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

What was your seasonal total relative to normal?

I know RT 2 further west wasn't all that far from normal.... I seem to remember Hippy being one storm from normal but he's way west.

34" total here... pretty sure that's 3/5ths of normal (~)...  That's going by snow alone

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