Fear and loathing April, 2020 discussion, obs, and the occasional derailment

[CoastalWx]

Just now, OceanStWx said:

I can (have someone else ) create an AWIPS smart tool using 925 wind, LR, and depth to spit out a wind gust forecast grid. It's a lot harder to calculate pressure gradient across an area and do the same thing. So that's what made picking the variables tough. But those three variables got me to about 80% of the variance in gusts. 

I mean those three are as good as it comes to a forecast for wind gusts. 

[CoastalWx]

Chris, has the NWS received new tools for wave heights and storm surge? I've noticed the BOX AFD reference guidance I never heard of. I think it's great to see several of these tools used to incorporate wave heights and surge guidance. 

[mreaves]

1 hour ago, powderfreak said:

CoCoRAHS a couple towns around got 4" last night... looked at it and man what a weenie spot at 2,010ft. 

What town?  I had .5" - .75" here

[OceanStWx]

12 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Chris, has the NWS received new tools for wave heights and storm surge? I've noticed the BOX AFD reference guidance I never heard of. I think it's great to see several of these tools used to incorporate wave heights and surge guidance. 

Do you remember any specifically? 

We have National Blend waves now (which does include some Euro). They verify pretty well so far.

Surge we're fairly limited in GFE (ESTOFS or ETSS) but we can see others on the web and adjust forecasts accordingly. The Stevens Institute SNAP-EX model does pretty well. 

[CoastalWx]

Just now, OceanStWx said:

Do you remember any specifically? 

We have National Blend waves now (which does include some Euro). They verify pretty well so far.

Surge we're fairly limited in GFE (ESTOFS or ETSS) but we can see others on the web and adjust forecasts accordingly. The Stevens Institute SNAP-EX model does pretty well. 

The Stevens Institute one.  Never heard of that.

[OceanStWx]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

The Stevens Institute one.  Never heard of that.

http://hudson.dl.stevens-tech.edu/sfas/

It actually overpredicted for BOS and PWM which a model almost never does. 

[HimoorWx]

Radar looks like the rain keeps building right over my head.  Something to do with the flow over the Blue Hills?  Up to almost 1.9 since midnight, so well over 2 inches since it started yesterday.  

[CoastalWx]

2 minutes ago, HimoorWx said:

Radar looks like the rain keeps building right over my head.  Something to do with the flow over the Blue Hills?  Up to almost 1.9 since midnight, so well over 2 inches since it started yesterday.  

I think it's just land/sea covergence with help of the terrain. I've only had like 1.1" Most of the rain is to my SW. 

[CoastalWx]

8 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

http://hudson.dl.stevens-tech.edu/sfas/

It actually overpredicted for BOS and PWM which a model almost never does. 

Interesting. I'll have to look next time we have another one. I hope it's not until November.

[HimoorWx]

5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I think it's just land/sea covergence with help of the terrain. I've only had like 1.1" Most of the rain is to my SW. 

I'm guessing I'm probably just a few miles west of you.  About a mile south of 128 and half mile east of 24.  Hardly any letup in the rain all day.

[OceanStWx]

4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Interesting. I'll have to look next time we have another one. I hope it's not until November.

Or later this week.

[powderfreak]

28 minutes ago, mreaves said:

What town?  I had .5" - .75" here

Ha autocorrect issue in my post.

It was the Cabot station.  I saw 4” and was like wtf, then looked up the coordinates and it comes back to 2,000ft on a side road off RT 2.  Similar elevation to that App Gap VTrans Cam by Mad River Glen.

Its on that western side of the Orange to Sheffield Heights...real weenie spot that does decent westerly flow upslope on that secondary ridge out in NEK.

[MJO812]

Great pattern on the euro

[Torch Tiger]

5 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Great pattern on the euro

that's a lot of rain

[MJO812]

2 minutes ago, Dr. Dews said:

that's a lot of rain

Nice blocking pattern. Snow in New England .

[Torch Tiger]

3 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Nice blocking pattern. Snow in New England .

verbatim, looks snowy portions for nne

[powderfreak]

37 minutes ago, Dr. Dews said:

verbatim, looks snowy portions for nne

One can dream if it won’t be 70F. 

Looks like plenty of snow maps for winter 19-20.

[Torch Tiger]

2 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

One can dream if it won’t be 70F. 

Looks like plenty of snow maps for winter 19-20.

that is so weenie. I'll sell on 4" here

[SouthCoastMA]

Where was this 3-4 weeks ago? At the same time, we all knew it was going to pan out like this. 

[dryslot]

Mother nature has a way of evening things out on one end or the other.

[Cold Miser]

7 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Mother nature has a way of evening things out on one end or the other.

She must have forgot about my neck of the woods.

[mreaves]

1 hour ago, powderfreak said:

Ha autocorrect issue in my post.

It was the Cabot station.  I saw 4” and was like wtf, then looked up the coordinates and it comes back to 2,000ft on a side road off RT 2.  Similar elevation to that App Gap VTrans Cam by Mad River Glen.

Its on that western side of the Orange to Sheffield Heights...real weenie spot that does decent westerly flow upslope on that secondary ridge out in NEK.

That is a weenie spot.  The snow in there is pretty sweet most years.  It's one of my go to snowmobiling spots.  You get some great views of the White's too.

[Lava Rock]

1.6" RN. What a miserable past two days.

[NorEastermass128]

Oh heck no. Don’t want or need that. 

[tamarack]

Kennebec flood warning posted at Skowhegan, though the forecast peak is only 101% of flood flow.  I guess if it rings the bell the warning gets posted, whether the overage is 400 cfs (like now) or 40,000.  If it crests at 35.4 up there, it's unlikely to reach flood stage in Augusta as the heaviest rain was on drainages north and west of Skowhegan.

[dryslot]

1 minute ago, Lava Rock said:

1.6" RN. What a miserable past two days.

Terrible, But its April, You knew after this winter we were going to get a sh it spring.

[dendrite]

Toss that map all day.

[snowman19]

2 hours ago, MJO812 said:

Great pattern on the euro

Not for anywhere near NYC. That ship already sailed weeks ago

[powderfreak]

33 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Toss that map all day.

Yeah the maps that use 925mb and above temps for snow work well in winter, but not in April when the lowest 1,500-2,000ft gets torched pretty easily.

In that verbatim solution it's likely 1,000ft+ for snows in the Greens/Whites.

Funny how the snow maps evolve with time of year too.  They are the same maps as January, but with very different environmental factors. 

P-Type algorthim's lol.  SFC temps never get below 34-35F.

[dendrite]

Nah...I'm just tossing it because I don't like it.