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Fear and loathing April, 2020 discussion, obs, and the occasional derailment

Typhoon Tip

By Typhoon Tip,
in New England

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
Posted
  On 4/3/2020 at 5:47 PM, OceanStWx said:

I can (have someone else ;)) create an AWIPS smart tool using 925 wind, LR, and depth to spit out a wind gust forecast grid. It's a lot harder to calculate pressure gradient across an area and do the same thing. So that's what made picking the variables tough. But those three variables got me to about 80% of the variance in gusts. 

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I mean those three are as good as it comes to a forecast for wind gusts. 

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weatherwiz
weatherwiz

We could be setting the stage for a MAJOR severe wx setup in May again!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

powderfreak
powderfreak

What a fukkin' sunset... Earth Day special from Mother Nature.

alex
alex

Cleared just in time for a great sunset

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OceanStWx

OceanStWx

Posted
Posted
  On 4/3/2020 at 5:52 PM, CoastalWx said:

Chris, has the NWS received new tools for wave heights and storm surge? I've noticed the BOX AFD reference guidance I never heard of. I think it's great to see several of these tools used to incorporate wave heights and surge guidance. 

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Do you remember any specifically? 

We have National Blend waves now (which does include some Euro). They verify pretty well so far.

Surge we're fairly limited in GFE (ESTOFS or ETSS) but we can see others on the web and adjust forecasts accordingly. The Stevens Institute SNAP-EX model does pretty well. 

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
Posted
  On 4/3/2020 at 6:05 PM, OceanStWx said:

Do you remember any specifically? 

We have National Blend waves now (which does include some Euro). They verify pretty well so far.

Surge we're fairly limited in GFE (ESTOFS or ETSS) but we can see others on the web and adjust forecasts accordingly. The Stevens Institute SNAP-EX model does pretty well. 

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The Stevens Institute one.  Never heard of that.

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
Posted
  On 4/3/2020 at 6:09 PM, HimoorWx said:

Radar looks like the rain keeps building right over my head.  Something to do with the flow over the Blue Hills?  Up to almost 1.9 since midnight, so well over 2 inches since it started yesterday.  :maprain::raining:

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I think it's just land/sea covergence with help of the terrain. I've only had like 1.1" Most of the rain is to my SW. 

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HimoorWx

HimoorWx

Posted
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  On 4/3/2020 at 6:12 PM, CoastalWx said:

I think it's just land/sea covergence with help of the terrain. I've only had like 1.1" Most of the rain is to my SW. 

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I'm guessing I'm probably just a few miles west of you.  About a mile south of 128 and half mile east of 24.  Hardly any letup in the rain all day.

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powderfreak

powderfreak

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  On 4/3/2020 at 6:05 PM, mreaves said:

What town?  I had .5" - .75" here

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Ha autocorrect issue in my post.

It was the Cabot station.  I saw 4” and was like wtf, then looked up the coordinates and it comes back to 2,000ft on a side road off RT 2.  Similar elevation to that App Gap VTrans Cam by Mad River Glen.

Its on that western side of the Orange to Sheffield Heights...real weenie spot that does decent westerly flow upslope on that secondary ridge out in NEK.

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mreaves

mreaves

Posted
Posted
  On 4/3/2020 at 6:31 PM, powderfreak said:

Ha autocorrect issue in my post.

It was the Cabot station.  I saw 4” and was like wtf, then looked up the coordinates and it comes back to 2,000ft on a side road off RT 2.  Similar elevation to that App Gap VTrans Cam by Mad River Glen.

Its on that western side of the Orange to Sheffield Heights...real weenie spot that does decent westerly flow upslope on that secondary ridge out in NEK.

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That is a weenie spot.  The snow in there is pretty sweet most years.  It's one of my go to snowmobiling spots.  You get some great views of the White's too.

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tamarack

tamarack

Posted
Posted

Kennebec flood warning posted at Skowhegan, though the forecast peak is only 101% of flood flow.  I guess if it rings the bell the warning gets posted, whether the overage is 400 cfs (like now) or 40,000.  If it crests at 35.4 up there, it's unlikely to reach flood stage in Augusta as the heaviest rain was on drainages north and west of Skowhegan.

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powderfreak

powderfreak

Posted
Posted
  On 4/3/2020 at 8:42 PM, dendrite said:

Toss that map all day.

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Yeah the maps that use 925mb and above temps for snow work well in winter, but not in April when the lowest 1,500-2,000ft gets torched pretty easily.

In that verbatim solution it's likely 1,000ft+ for snows in the Greens/Whites.

Funny how the snow maps evolve with time of year too.  They are the same maps as January, but with very different environmental factors. 

P-Type algorthim's lol.  SFC temps never get below 34-35F.

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