Fear and loathing April, 2020 discussion, obs, and the occasional derailment

[Typhoon Tip]

Presently ...for those that hold out for a late surprised, your window 'appears' to be this week. The antecedent -NAO was remarkably well handled by the various ensemble means, but the details in the flow ( timing/spacing waves et al) have emerged to nuance this particular version of a -NAO ...utterly meaningless to your hopes and dreams. 

Which in a petty sort of way, the spring/seasonal change and warm enthusiasts suffer beside you in equal proportion, because any -NAO in the first week of April is not a warm signal either, particularly if/when it is idiosyncratically west-based...  

That said..., at least for the warm enthusiasts, the -NAO appears to (thankfully!) have a lease.  The Euro operational run has been signaling the NAO blocking node(s) as collapsing to mesh in with the perennial Atlantic heights, leaving a bit more zonal component to the westerlies at high latitudes across the D. Straight/adjacent N. Atl Basin as near as this week's end ... The GFS seems, as usual, to be fictionalizing the Hemisphere of Neptune on Earth by beady-eyed obsession to keep the flow progressive and therefore loses any signal at all in lieu of said bias beyond 5 days - so tougher read there.  But, as far as the Euro, it concomitantly raises the heights over eastern N/A mid latitudes/U.S.

It's not a hugely demonstrative ridge or anything, but it may become more prevalent given some marinading in time. The EPS made a pretty significant adjustment in the D7-10 range toward more a -PNAP signal...and with the NAO at that time appearing to either be neutral/rising, that could be the real, true seasonal exit and green up ... 'outdoorsy' push that flips the script.  We'll see, but that signal starts ~ 6 days from now and matures going onward from there. 

In the meantime, this week is tormented misery unfortunately. D4 may actually feature a pivot/-NAO spoke of wet snow and cold rain coming down like we used to see in the 1990's springs.  Kind of reminiscent there.  

Beyond that... April is very tough to establish and maintain warm signals.  Even in the warmer characterized patterns, we have such a huge dichotomy between land/continent and near-by Labrador modified death vapor. By physical circumstance and gravity, that latter is denser and wants to be underneath said warmth of the continent - which by irony and [probably] the design of satan himself no doubt, that's where humanity of course must be. It's like there is a permanent counter vector always pointing SW underneath the environmental synoptic appeals, at all times - think "white men can't jump" - oh they can, they just have to work harder to do it.  Same here... we can get warm in April, but we have to overcome this veritable vector ... arriving (typically) in the form of back-door fronts, and/or like this week, seemingly eternal west Atlantic cut-off gyres.  So, having a tentative warm signal heading toward the 10th of the month is almost a blessing already - certainly a start. 

[wokeupthisam]

"April is the cruelest month."

That's beyond dispute in my book.  If I had $$ for every time I heard Barry Burbank reference a "Wheel of Misfortune" spinning endlessly in the western Atlantic during April, I could retire.  Cruel but unfortunately around here, not unusual... punishment.

[NorEastermass128]

Is that a light at the end of the tunnel for this weekend and early next week. Sun and 50s?  My soul needs that now. 

[Baroclinic Zone]

Haven’t used my snowblower in 2 full winters now.

[BrianW]

Anybody else use the windy weather ap? Picked up a new DJI mavic drone and its what most drone flyers use to check the upper winds. Its pretty amazing and has all the models intergatred.

 

 

[MarkO]

34.4/30 flurries. 

[Hoth]

2 hours ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

Haven’t used my snowblower in 2 full winters now.

Didn't shovel once this season. Amazing.

[Damage In Tolland]

2 hours ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

Haven’t used my snowblower in 2 full winters now.

DC climate there 

[CoastalWx]

38 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

DC climate there 

Anything 3" or more, we blow. 

[powderfreak]

9 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Anything 3" or more, we blow. 

Can't set people up like that dude.  Don't even have to alter it.

[ORH_wxman]

3 hours ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

Haven’t used my snowblower in 2 full winters now.

What about 3/4 last year? That was like over a foot down there wasn’t it? 

[powderfreak]

Exploring the higher terrain in some nice steady snowfall today.

Ended up with only a dense half inch coating on colder surfaces at 1,500ft but a few inches up higher.

Yesterday had some serious freezing rain though... pure icestorm with 1/2" of ice above 2,500ft.

[Baroclinic Zone]

55 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

DC climate there 

57.3” avg over last 10 seasons.  43% above average per season.

[Baroclinic Zone]

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

What about 3/4 last year? That was like over a foot down there wasn’t it? 

9”.  Probably washed away so it was easy to get rid of what was left.with a shovel.

[HIPPYVALLEY]

5 hours ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

Haven’t used my snowblower in 2 full winters now.

Wow, that’s nuts. 

[CoastalWx]

3 hours ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

9”.  Probably washed away so it was easy to get rid of what was left.with a shovel.

It definitely didn’t wash away iirc where you were. But, maybe the March sun helped in the aftn? That shit was heavy.

[Ginx snewx]

In other news March 20 the ugly sister to March 2012 didn't even make the top ten warmest. 

[Damage In Tolland]

7 hours ago, Ginx snewx said:

In other news March 20 the ugly sister to March 2012 didn't even make the top ten warmest. 

I saw top 5 at most stations in a Fish tweet yesterday . Solid call overall 

 

[Ginx snewx]

1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said:

I saw top 5 at most stations in a Fish tweet yesterday . Solid call overall 

 

Look closely Kemosabe , sister of 12 Phail. Enjoy the beer Will. I will drive you back and forth.

[Damage In Tolland]

Where’s BDL?

[Ginx snewx]

Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

Where’s BDL?

Hartford area?

[Damage In Tolland]

Just now, Ginx snewx said:

Hartford area?

Why did you choose HFD over BDL? Hmm

[Ginx snewx]

Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

Why did you choose HFD over BDL? Hmm

Hartford area includes BDL but if you want Tarmac not where everyone lives here ya go 6th not top 5 not a sister but a distant cousin who was a lot uglier

[Ginx snewx]

Let's hope April brings us solid warmth and multiple COC days while we waste away in prison

[dendrite]

Looks like about 0.3" overnight. About an inch of liquid over the last few days. Time to dry out.

[Damage In Tolland]

5 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Hartford area includes BDL but if you want Tarmac not where everyone lives here ya go 6th not top 5 not a sister but a distant cousin who was a lot uglier

HFD and BDL are much different locations 

[HoarfrostHubb]

3 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Looks like about 0.3" overnight. About an inch of liquid over the last few days. Time to dry out.

March

[dendrite]

1 minute ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

March

Yup. And no one else wanted to post in the March thread like me so I posted with Freak.

[Damage In Tolland]

The best part of Napril is that it is install month. Most of us typically put them up and in by mid to late month. To me, that’s a sign summer is right around the corner even if they’re not used much until Mayorch

[HoarfrostHubb]

Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

The best part of Napril is that it is install month. Most of us typically put them up and in by mid to late month. To me, that’s a sign summer is right around the corner even if they’re not used much until Mayorch

Despite the world going to shit all around us, it makes me smile when Blizzy is still Blizzy.    Gives me hope