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Pittsburgh PA Spring and Summer 2020 Thread


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As crazy as the NAM is, it might be at least be worth mentioning that we haven’t  officially had more than .1” of snow in May since 1966 (when in snowed 3”). And I think there was a 2” type event a few years earlier. So the bar for “historic” is pretty low this time of year. 

This looks heavily rate dependent to have a chance for anything 

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11 hours ago, Mailman said:

Sorry. I couldn't help myself.

That's one of the best snow maps I've seen all "Winter" lol. I mean if its going to be cold and precipitation falling I'm all in for something record setting which has Burghblizz mentioned in May wouldn't take much. Heck if I see a coating of snow on May 9th I'd consider that a win.

I know anecdotally we welcome the cold snaps in Spring to kill bugs etc, just curious what impact an actual hard freeze this late would do to mosquitoes etc. 

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I hope I will be able wake up Saturday morning and take some historic pictures, even a inch on the trees would be nice. What a way to end a wacky 2020. 

 

I can just see some of the funny posts in the future such as ..........

” This winter has been bad For snow. I’m ready for spring” then someone can say “Don’t give up, remember last year we had that snow event in May” lol :rolleyes:

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  • 2 weeks later...

Models are looking pretty warm for this upcoming week.  From Sunday through Friday, looks like each day could hit 80.  Tuesday to Thursday and maybe Friday, look the warmest (mid to upper 80s possible).

 

Also, the incredible luck this area has had by missing a massive majority of the rain that Ohio and WV have had is bizarre and refreshing.  That kind of stuff just does not seem to happen here, lol.  Whatever shield is up can definitely stick around.  

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  • 2 weeks later...

Another "slight" risk of severe today and it looks like, once again, Pittsburgh metro and points north will miss out.

Depends on your perspective, of course, but it seems like the metro area has been having some bad luck lately on the stormy weather.  Everything seems to be missing south or farther north.

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mcd0798.gif

Mesoscale Discussion 0798
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0210 PM CDT Wed Jun 03 2020

   Areas affected...Southeast OH...North/Northeast WV...Much of PA and
   MD...Far Northern VA

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 031910Z - 032115Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

   SUMMARY...Isolated damaging wind gusts and hail are possible from
   southeast OH eastward across much of PA and MD as scattered
   thunderstorms develop this afternoon.

   DISCUSSION...Recent surface analysis reveals a somewhat
   diffuse/outflow-modified cold front extending from south-central NY
   southwestward across northwest PA and westward through central OH.
   Temperatures along and south of the front are currently in the upper
   70s/low 80s with dewpoints in the low to mid 60s. Filtered diurnal
   heating has kept temperatures in the upper 70s/low 80s, which is
   combining with relatively warm temperatures aloft to limit stronger
   instability. Recent mesoanalysis estimates MLCAPE from 500 to 1000
   J/kg. Some stronger northwesterly flow aloft still exists across the
   region, as sampled by 18Z PIT sounding. As a result, some stronger
   multicells/bowing line segments are possible, which could pose a
   risk for damaging wind gusts and hail.

   Farther southeast, an outflow boundary from an earlier MCS extends
   across northwest WV and much of MD. Deepening cumulus has been noted
   along this boundary, although the air mass has not destabilized like
   areas north/northwest. Strong heating is also mixing out more of the
   low-level moisture. Even so, a few isolated storms may develop along
   this boundary. Any storm that does persist will result in an
   isolated threat for damaging wind gusts.

   ..Mosier/Grams.. 06/03/2020
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34 minutes ago, jwilson said:

Another "slight" risk of severe today and it looks like, once again, Pittsburgh metro and points north will miss out.

Depends on your perspective, of course, but it seems like the metro area has been having some bad luck lately on the stormy weather.  Everything seems to be missing south or farther north.

Personally, I'm happy to miss out on the storms.  I like a good thunderstorm once in a while, but with how rainy the last couple years have been, I welcome the drier weather.

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1 hour ago, jwilson said:

Another "slight" risk of severe today and it looks like, once again, Pittsburgh metro and points north will miss out.

Depends on your perspective, of course, but it seems like the metro area has been having some bad luck lately on the stormy weather.  Everything seems to be missing south or farther north.

I feel what you're saying. It's more about the missing out part, that seems to be the theme around here for the last few years.

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18 hours ago, Ahoff said:

Personally, I'm happy to miss out on the storms.  I like a good thunderstorm once in a while, but with how rainy the last couple years have been, I welcome the drier weather.

I'm a storm chaser at heart, so mostly I'm interested in storm development for something to follow.  Yesterday's early morning derecho that swept across the state acted like a broom for our area and essentially pushed all the instability south and east of us.  The resulting outflow setup convection across extreme southern PA into WV.

Locally, we haven't had a real thunderstorm since April 8th.  I have to think two months during the spring without an event is pretty unusual for this area, although June and July are the peak months on average.  The cooler spring is the main culprit, of course.

Considering it will maintain 80s through October nowadays I guess we have to be okay with it.  We'll likely make up for it later.

17 hours ago, CoraopolisWx said:

I feel what you're saying. It's more about the missing out part, that seems to be the theme around here for the last few years.

Yep.  It's bad enough missing out during the winter months, but now we keep missing during thunderstorm season, too?  In the end I'm sure it's just a blip.  Things will turn around at some point.  Theoretically they should, anyway.

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SEL9

   URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
   Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 249
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1255 PM EDT Thu Jun 4 2020

   The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

   * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of 
     Eastern Ohio
     Western Pennsylvania
     Northern West Virginia Panhandle

   * Effective this Thursday afternoon and evening from 1255 PM
     until 800 PM EDT.

   * Primary threats include...
     Scattered damaging wind gusts to 65 mph possible
     Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible

   SUMMARY...Clusters of strong to locally severe storms will likely
   progress east-northeast across the Upper Ohio Valley region this
   afternoon offering a risk for mainly damaging wind along with
   isolated severe hail.

   The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 55
   statute miles north and south of a line from 45 miles west of
   Zanesville OH to 30 miles north northeast of Latrobe PA. For a
   complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline
   update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9).

   PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

   REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
   favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
   Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
   weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
   warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
   tornadoes.

   &&

   AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
   1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 55 knots. A
   few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector
   25025.

   ...Grams

PLa5pi8.gif

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mcd0815.gif

Mesoscale Discussion 0815
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0114 PM CDT Thu Jun 04 2020

   Areas affected...Northeast OH...Far Western PA

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 249...

   Valid 041814Z - 041915Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 249
   continues.

   SUMMARY...Localized area of higher wind-damage potential exists
   across northeast OH and far western PA.

   DISCUSSION...Recent radar imagery has shown an increase in forward
   motion with the line segment moving eastward into northwest OH.
   Storm motion estimate is currently 40 kt. This increase in
   organization and strength appears tied to both a downstream increase
   in instability and interaction with a pre-existing boundary that is
   moving northward as an effective warm front. Given these trends, a
   localized area of higher damaging wind gust potential will exist
   downstream of this line for at least the next hour or so.

   ..Mosier.. 06/04/2020
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BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Warning
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
443 PM EDT Thu Jun 4 2020

The National Weather Service in Pittsburgh has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Warning for...
  Washington County in southwestern Pennsylvania...
  Southeastern Beaver County in western Pennsylvania...
  Indiana County in west central Pennsylvania...
  Southern Butler County in west central Pennsylvania...
  Allegheny County in southwestern Pennsylvania...
  Westmoreland County in southwestern Pennsylvania...
  Southern Armstrong County in west central Pennsylvania...
  Northern Fayette County in southwestern Pennsylvania...
  Northeastern Ohio County in northern West Virginia...
  Southeastern Brooke County in northern West Virginia...

* Until 600 PM EDT.

* At 442 PM EDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line
  extending from near Rochester to Moon Township to 6 miles west of
  Wolfdale, moving east at 30 mph.

  HAZARD...Wind gusts to 60 mph.

  SOURCE...Radar.

  IMPACT...Expect damage to trees and power lines, resulting in some
           power outages.

* Locations impacted include...
  Pittsburgh...                     Penn Hills...
  Mount Lebanon...                  Bethel Park...
  Ross Township...                  McCandless Township...
  Monroeville...                    Cranberry...
  Moon Township...                  McMurray...
  Greensburg...                     McKeesport...

This includes the following highways...
  Interstate 70 in Pennsylvania between mile markers 3 and 57.
  Pennsylvania Turnpike between mile markers 26 and 99.
  Interstate 79 in Pennsylvania between mile markers 26 and 81.
  Interstate 376 in Pennsylvania between mile markers 45 and 84.
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11 minutes ago, north pgh said:

Right on schedule, models had this line falling apart as it gets here and low and behold it is...At least over North Central Alleg Co.

Yeah this storm is pretty underwhelming. Very little lightning and the wind is pretty tame. Just another day living in this black hole for weather. 

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On 6/4/2020 at 9:33 AM, jwilson said:

I'm a storm chaser at heart, so mostly I'm interested in storm development for something to follow.  Yesterday's early morning derecho that swept across the state acted like a broom for our area and essentially pushed all the instability south and east of us.  The resulting outflow setup convection across extreme southern PA into WV.

Locally, we haven't had a real thunderstorm since April 8th.  I have to think two months during the spring without an event is pretty unusual for this area, although June and July are the peak months on average.  The cooler spring is the main culprit, of course.

Considering it will maintain 80s through October nowadays I guess we have to be okay with it.  We'll likely make up for it later.

Yep.  It's bad enough missing out during the winter months, but now we keep missing during thunderstorm season, too?  In the end I'm sure it's just a blip.  Things will turn around at some point.  Theoretically they should, anyway.

Even the severe storms in my area, were luckily no more than just a brief downpour then showers and two rumbles of thunder.  I'm okay with that.

 

Anyway, looks HOT Tuesday and maybe Wednesday.  I hope to hit 90, but I know our area really likes the number 89, so we'll see.  Could reach 94 Tuesday!

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