Indystorm Posted March 28, 2020 Share Posted March 28, 2020 SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO 1030 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2020 MOC019-027-051-151-280400- /O.CON.KLSX.SV.W.0021.000000T0000Z-200328T0400Z/ COLE MO-BOONE MO-CALLAWAY MO-OSAGE MO- 1030 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2020 ...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1100 PM CDT FOR CENTRAL COLE...SOUTH CENTRAL BOONE...SOUTHERN CALLAWAY AND NORTHEASTERN OSAGE COUNTIES... AT 1029 PM CDT, A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED OVER HOLTS SUMMIT, MOVING NORTHEAST AT 65 MPH. THIS IS A VERY DANGEROUS STORM. HAZARD...THREE INCH HAIL AND 60 MPH WIND GUSTS. SOURCE...TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS. VERY LARGE HAIL TO 3 INCHES HAS BEEN REPORTED WITH THIS STORM IN JEFFERSON CITY. IMPACT...PEOPLE AND ANIMALS OUTDOORS WILL BE SEVERELY INJURED. EXPECT SHATTERED WINDOWS, EXTENSIVE DAMAGE TO ROOFS, SIDING, AND VEHICLES. LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE... JEFFERSON CITY, FULTON, HOLTS SUMMIT, WARDSVILLE, NEW BLOOMFIELD, CHAMOIS, LAKE MYKEE TOWN, LAKE MYKEE, WILLIAMSBURG, MOKANE, MORRISON, WAINWRIGHT, PORTLAND, OSAGE CITY, FRANKENSTEIN, TEBBETTS, GUTHRIE, REFORM, STEEDMAN AND BONNOTS MILL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 28, 2020 Share Posted March 28, 2020 3 inch hail reported by spotters in Jefferson City, MO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 28, 2020 Share Posted March 28, 2020 I would bet SPC keeps the mod risk for the 0600 DAY 1 OTLK. Probably ratchets up the wording a bit and perhaps mentions potential to upgrade... but IMO can't see HIGH being issued till later in the morning i.e. the 1300 OTLK if there is going to be one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted March 28, 2020 Share Posted March 28, 2020 13 minutes ago, StormChaser4Life said: A prefrontal trough would certainly increase the tornado potential for this. Prevent a more linear storm mode near pacific front This isnt gonna be linear off the pacific front. Discrete storm mode with splitting cells seems most likely to me personally right now. Look at nature of boundary, storm speeds and shear vectors. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MattPetrulli Posted March 28, 2020 Share Posted March 28, 2020 3 minutes ago, hlcater said: This isnt gonna be linear off the pacific front. Discrete storm mode with splitting cells seems most likely to me personally right now. Look at nature of boundary, storm speeds and shear vectors. Agreed, splits are something that may temper this event a bit. Imo needs to be talked about more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted March 28, 2020 Share Posted March 28, 2020 Serious hailers ongoing as others have stated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted March 28, 2020 Share Posted March 28, 2020 Big TBSS on that Jefferson City storm. Looks to be on track to impact some of the STL metro (after they already got hailed on last night). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 28, 2020 Share Posted March 28, 2020 11 minutes ago, andyhb said: Big TBSS on that Jefferson City storm. Looks to be on track to impact some of the STL metro (after they already got hailed on last night). Quite a history of 3 inch hail with it seems as well ETA: Also moving east at 60mph per the latest SWS... trucking right along Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 28, 2020 Share Posted March 28, 2020 Severe Thunderstorm Warning ILC013-MOC113-139-183-219-280500- /O.NEW.KLSX.SV.W.0023.200328T0420Z-200328T0500Z/ BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Warning National Weather Service St Louis MO 1120 PM CDT Fri Mar 27 2020 The National Weather Service in St Louis has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Warning for... South central Calhoun County in southwestern Illinois... Northwestern St. Charles County in east central Missouri... Southeastern Lincoln County in east central Missouri... East central Montgomery County in east central Missouri... Central Warren County in east central Missouri... * Until midnight CDT. * At 1120 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Jonesburg, moving east at 55 mph. This is a very dangerous storm. HAZARD...Three inch hail and 60 mph wind gusts. SOURCE...Trained weather spotters. IMPACT...People and animals outdoors will be severely injured. Expect shattered windows, extensive damage to roofs, siding, and vehicles. * Locations impacted include... O`Fallon, St. Peters, Wentzville, Lake St. Louis, Dardenne Prairie, Troy, Warrenton, Wright City, Cottleville, St. Paul, Moscow Mills, Winfield, Jonesburg, Truesdale, Innsbrook, Josephville, Fountain N` Lakes, Chain of Rocks, Harvester and Flint Hill. This includes Interstate 70 in Missouri between exits 179 and 224. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a building. This is a dangerous storm. Prepare immediately for large destructive hail capable of producing significant damage. People outside should move to shelter inside a strong building, and stay away from windows. && LAT...LON 3874 9136 3889 9138 3902 9058 3875 9058 TIME...MOT...LOC 0420Z 261DEG 49KT 3882 9124 HAIL...3.00IN WIND...60MPH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted March 28, 2020 Share Posted March 28, 2020 Looks like that long track large hail storm will be heading for Pere Marquette State Park and Alton Illinois in the near future. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted March 28, 2020 Share Posted March 28, 2020 BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO 1143 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2020 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN ST LOUIS HAS ISSUED A * SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR... SOUTHEASTERN CALHOUN COUNTY IN SOUTHWESTERN ILLINOIS... NORTHWESTERN MADISON COUNTY IN SOUTHWESTERN ILLINOIS... SOUTHWESTERN MACOUPIN COUNTY IN SOUTHWESTERN ILLINOIS... JERSEY COUNTY IN SOUTHWESTERN ILLINOIS... NORTHWESTERN ST. CHARLES COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL MISSOURI... SOUTHEASTERN LINCOLN COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL MISSOURI... * UNTIL 1230 AM CDT. * AT 1142 PM CDT, A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED OVER FOUNTAIN N' LAKES, MOVING EAST AT 65 MPH. THIS IS A VERY DANGEROUS STORM. HAZARD...BASEBALL SIZE HAIL AND 60 MPH WIND GUSTS. SOURCE...TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS. IMPACT...PEOPLE AND ANIMALS OUTDOORS WILL BE SEVERELY INJURED. EXPECT SHATTERED WINDOWS, EXTENSIVE DAMAGE TO ROOFS, SIDING, AND VEHICLES. * LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE... GODFREY, TROY, JERSEYVILLE, MOSCOW MILLS, BRIGHTON, WINFIELD, HARDIN, GRAFTON, ELSAH, SHIPMAN, PORTAGE DES SIOUX, FOUNTAIN N' LAKES, CHAIN OF ROCKS, PIASA, FLINT HILL, MEDORA, OLD MONROE, FIELDON, BATCHTOWN AND FOLEY. THIS ALSO INCLUDES CUIVRE RIVER STATE PARK AND PERE MARQUETTE STATE PARK. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... THIS IS A DANGEROUS STORM. PREPARE IMMEDIATELY FOR LARGE DESTRUCTIVE HAIL CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SIGNIFICANT DAMAGE. PEOPLE OUTSIDE SHOULD MOVE TO SHELTER INSIDE A STRONG BUILDING, AND STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jackstraw Posted March 28, 2020 Share Posted March 28, 2020 I was not aware. The 2 costliest hail storms in US history, 4/10/2001 and 4/28/2012 happened right around where this is currently going on, at least according to "wiki facts". Thought it was a Northern Plains Texas thing. I've been caught in some 2 incher's and scared the crap out of me. Think I'd take my chances with an EF0 hitting my property than baseballs flying around at 60mph lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted March 28, 2020 Share Posted March 28, 2020 I would have thought the Dallas/Fort Worth metroplex would have been the costliest. Learn something new everyday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted March 28, 2020 Share Posted March 28, 2020 I'm not going to be sold on this going high risk until the ongoing convection is worked out. When does the ongoing elevated convection north of the warm front clear out quickly when it's on the edge of an EML and has a LLJ feeding into it? The HRRR does this and overplays the later-day threat often and there's enough uncertainty on the various CAMs WRT how the ongoing elevated convection plays out and the subsequent impact on the main threat in the afternoon to cast doubt on the HRRR. The parameter space has the potential to be high end, and if the ongoing stuff moves out and that's realized the shear vectors somewhat orthogonal to the front and fast storm motion will keep activity semi-discrete for a while...that would support a higher-end tornado threat. But they shouldn't/likely won't go high risk out of the gate at 6z. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arishtat Posted March 28, 2020 Share Posted March 28, 2020 35 minutes ago, yoda said: Long time lurker, first time poster. The Feb 2017 tornado in Naplate/Ottawa was what got me into weather. I can't say I understand a whole lot of it, but I'm aware of when there's potential there, and tomorrow scares the living crap out of me. How worried should I be in the southern LaSalle county area ? If this type of post isn't allowed I apologize but, my fiance and I are both really freaked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted March 28, 2020 Share Posted March 28, 2020 10 minutes ago, Arishtat said: Long time lurker, first time poster. The Feb 2017 tornado in Naplate/Ottawa was what got me into weather. I can't say I understand a whole lot of it, but I'm aware of when there's potential there, and tomorrow scares the living crap out of me. How worried should I be in the southern LaSalle county area ? If this type of post isn't allowed I apologize but, my fiance and I are both really freaked. Just keep informed regarding watches and warnings throughout the afternoon and evening and have a safety plan in advance. Welcome to the forum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted March 28, 2020 Share Posted March 28, 2020 Moderate maintained. Mention of possible high risk later. Quote DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0100 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2020 VALID 281200Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN IOWA INTO CENTRAL AND NORTHERN ILLINOIS... ..SUMMARY A SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK IS EXPECTED FOR PORTIONS OF THE MIDWEST THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THREATS INCLUDE TORNADOES, A FEW WHICH MAY BE SIGNIFICANT, LARGE TO VERY LARGE HAIL, AND SEVERE WIND GUSTS. ..SYNOPSIS UPPER TROUGH NOW SITUATED OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES WILL EJECT NORTHEAST TODAY, REACHING THE MIDDLE MS VALLEY AND MIDWEST REGION LATER THIS AFTERNOON. SURFACE LOW IN SOUTHWEST KS WILL DEEPEN AS IT DEVELOPS NORTHEAST WITHIN EXIT REGION OF A STRONG UPPER JET, AND SHOULD REACH SOUTHWEST IA BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. A WARM FRONT WILL EXTEND EASTWARD FROM THE LOW THROUGH NORTHERN IL INTO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE OH VALLEY. TRAILING COLD FRONT INITIALLY FROM EASTERN KS THROUGH EASTERN TX WILL ADVANCE THROUGH THE MS, TN AND OH VALLEYS. BY THE END OF THE PERIOD THIS FRONT SHOULD EXTEND FROM A SURFACE LOW IN WI SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE OH VALLEY, TN VALLEY AND CENTRAL PORTION OF THE GULF COAST STATES. ..MIDWEST THROUGH OHIO VALLEY REGION AREAS OF ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ONGOING NORTH OF WARM FRONT FROM NORTHERN MO, IA, IL AND EASTWARD INTO THE OH VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES. THIS ACTIVITY WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT NORTHWARD DURING THE DAY WITH A GRADUAL DESTABLIZATION OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER PROMOTED BY THE NORTHWARD ADVECTION OF MID 60S F DEWPOINTS THROUGH THE WARM SECTOR. WIDESPREAD MULTI-LAYER CLOUDS WILL SLOW THE DESTABIBLIZTION PROCESS SOMEWHAT. HOWEVER, BACK EDGE OF CIRRUS ASSOCIATED WITH SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME SHOULD SHIFT EAST OF THIS REGION AND PARTIAL CLOUD BREAKS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO AT LEAST MODEST DIABATIC WARMING OF THE SURFACE LAYER. MLCAPE FROM 1500-2000 J/KG IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE MIDWEST BY MIDDLE TO LATE AFTERNOON. THE PROCESS OF DESTABILIZATION AND DEEPER FORCING FOR ASCENT WITHIN THE UPPER JET EXIT REGION WILL LIKELY CONTRIBUTE TO DEVELOPMENT OF STORMS ALONG WARM CONVEYOR BELT FROM NORTHEAST MO, EASTERN IA INTO WESTERN IL. VERTICAL WIND PROFILES WITH 50+ KT EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELLS. THESE STORMS WILL MOVE NORTHEAST THROUGH CENTRAL AND NORTHERN IL DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITHIN AN ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY A STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL JET WHICH WILL PROMOTE LARGE 0-1 KM HODOGRAPHS (300-500 M2/S2 STORM-RELATIVE HELICITY). THIS PARAMETER SPACE ALONG WITH LOW LCLS WILL SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LONG-TRACK, STRONG TORNADOES AND VERY LARGE HAIL. ASSUMING SUFFICIENT DESTABILIZATION OCCURS, OTHER SUPERCELLS MIGHT DEVELOP IN AN ARCING BAND WITHIN ZONE OF ASCENT ACCOMPAYING THE PRIMARY VORTICITY MAXIMUM AND JUST EAST OF THE SURFACE LOW ACROSS CENTRAL IA. THESE STORMS WILL ALSO POSE A RISK FOR LARGE HAIL AND TORNADOES. AN UPGRADE TO HIGH RISK WILL BE CONSIDERED IN LATER DAY 1 UPDATES FOR A PORTION OF THIS REGION. ELSEWHERE, ADDITIONAL STORMS WILL DEVELOP EAST THROUGH THE OH VALLEY AND SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES DURING THE EVENING WITH ALL SEVERE HAZARDS POSSIBLE. ..LOWER MISSISSIPPI THROUGH TENNESSEE VALLEY REGION STORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD OF AN EASTWARD-ADVANCING COLD FRONT AND WILL LIKELY GRADUALLY INTENSIFY AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZES DURING THE DAY. WHILE LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS WILL NOT BE AS LARGE AS FARTHER NORTH, DEEP-LAYER SHEAR IN EXCESS OF 50 KT AND MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL BE MORE THAN SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED STORMS INCLUDING A FEW BOWING SEGMENTS AND SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WIND, LARGE HAIL AND A FEW TORNADOES. ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE EAST INTO THE TN VALLEY AREA INTO THE OVERNIGHT WITH A CONTINUED SEVERE THREAT. ..DIAL/DEAN.. 03/28/2020 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted March 28, 2020 Share Posted March 28, 2020 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 28, 2020 Share Posted March 28, 2020 30% hatched hail is JUST south of Chicago metro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sydney Claridge Posted March 28, 2020 Share Posted March 28, 2020 1 minute ago, yoda said: 30% hatched hail is JUST south of Chicago metro Almost all of the Chicago metro is in the 30% hatched hail risk. And a 10% hatched tornado risk all the way to the lake, with the 15% hatched tornado risk getting into the western parts of the metro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted March 28, 2020 Share Posted March 28, 2020 Chicago and Calumet region are now in the enhanced outlook with 10% hatched tor, an upgrade from earlier outlook when they were in the slight risk. I can remember Tim Marshall saying if it's May and 10% hatched you chase. And this is only March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 28, 2020 Share Posted March 28, 2020 If it were me I might have curved the hatched tornado area a bit more to the southeast in northeast IL to put it JUST south of Chicago proper for now. Minor detail though. Tricky forecast for Chicago. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted March 28, 2020 Share Posted March 28, 2020 HRRR just won't back off. Now develops tornadic cells ahead of the main line including one nw of LAF area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sydney Claridge Posted March 28, 2020 Share Posted March 28, 2020 13 minutes ago, Indystorm said: HRRR just won't back off. Now develops tornadic cells ahead of the main line including one nw of LAF area. If those HRRR runs verify I would not be surprised to see (potentially tornadic?) supercells as far east as Pittsburgh. This (05z) HRRR run puts a cell pretty close to Columbus, OH (at 20z) as well, not to mention RAP also shows precipitation along that warm frontal boundary in Indiana/Ohio/SW Pennsylvania. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 28, 2020 Share Posted March 28, 2020 It just struck me that March 28 is the centennial of the big 3/28/1920 outbreak. Not making a comparison between that event and this one, but there is something fitting about having a potentially potent severe weather setup falling on this day. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sydney Claridge Posted March 28, 2020 Share Posted March 28, 2020 06z HRRR may be attempting to re-orient the threat area away from northern IL and is firing up storms along a frontal boundary from central IL to SW PA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
twistingtornado Posted March 28, 2020 Share Posted March 28, 2020 06z HRRR run has no discrete cells forming in Northern Illinois due to earlier crapvection. Compare 00z run to 06z run valid at 18z. The cap doesn't hold as a shortwave trough ejects northeast over Iowa in the late morning. Threat for northern Illinois would be nil. A messy storm mode ensues in west and central Illinois, but looks like there could be a few discrete cells that take advantage of their environment in that region. This is trending toward an enhanced risk instead of a high risk. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sydney Claridge Posted March 28, 2020 Share Posted March 28, 2020 17 minutes ago, twistingtornado said: 06z HRRR run has no discrete cells forming in Northern Illinois due to earlier crapvection. Compare 00z run to 06z run valid at 18z. The cap doesn't hold as a shortwave trough ejects northeast over Iowa in the late morning. Threat for northern Illinois would be nil. A messy storm mode ensues in west and central Illinois, but looks like there could be a few discrete cells that take advantage of their environment in that region. This is trending toward an enhanced risk instead of a high risk. What is interesting right now, however, is that much of the “crapvection” is well north of the surface warm front, aside from what is present in central IL north of I-70, and an area of convection trying to form a line way back in western Oklahoma and northern Texas. The entire state of Missouri seems to be free of convection for the moment, so I am starting to wonder about the impact that TX/OK activity might have if it holds together. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sydney Claridge Posted March 28, 2020 Share Posted March 28, 2020 One of those storms in Oklahoma just went severe, and it is moving extremely fast to the northeast. Although this should go in the Central/Western States subforum, this is the main thread for this severe weather event, so I’ll go ahead and post this warning here. Quote BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Warning National Weather Service Norman OK 342 AM CDT Sat Mar 28 2020 The National Weather Service in Norman has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Warning for... North central Comanche County in southwestern Oklahoma... Northwestern Grady County in central Oklahoma... Southern Caddo County in southwestern Oklahoma... East central Kiowa County in southwestern Oklahoma... * Until 415 AM CDT. * At 342 AM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located 6 miles northwest of Boone, moving northeast at 85 mph. HAZARD...Ping pong ball size hail and 60 mph wind gusts. SOURCE...Radar indicated. IMPACT...People and animals outdoors will be injured. Expect hail damage to roofs, siding, windows, and vehicles. Expect wind damage to roofs, siding, and trees. * Locations impacted include... Anadarko, Carnegie, Apache, Fort Cobb, Verden, Amber, Gracemont, Pocasset, Meers, Boone, Albert, Lake Chickasha, Fort Cobb Reservoir, Stecker and northeastern Wichita Mountains Wildlife Refuge. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a building. EDIT: the activity in central IL (from Springfield to Champaign) looks like it may be trying to fall apart. Unless more convection tries to form later on (as twistingtornado suggests if the 06z HRRR run verifies), the warm front may not have too much of a problem moving northwards towards the I-80 corridor. However, 08z HRRR is showing storms in northeastern MO at around 15z, and the HRRR model says that this would be the northeastern continuation of the activity currently approaching Oklahoma City. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted March 28, 2020 Share Posted March 28, 2020 The current OK stuff is the crapvection..the northern edge precip/clouds will be over IL by midday This may mess up instability for the main show after 21z with the best dynamics 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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