March 26-28 Severe Threat

[Jackstraw]

Early north later south, I feel like a goal post, it is Sunday after all lol.

 

[cyclone77]

DVN just confirmed a brief EF-1 about 12 miles east-southeast of here, south of Prophetstown.  Happened well after sunset so I didn't miss anything. 

[Chinook]

Here is the 4-hr rotation track map for the Jonesboro tornado (MRMS) at 20:30z-00:30z. I wonder how long the tornado was on the ground.

[Calderon]

Jonesboro is preliminary EF3 at 140mph, per NWS Memphis.

[janetjanet998]

18 hours ago, Buckeye05 said:

Not out of the woods yet. Something may be about to go down in the Peoria, IL metro.

0900 PM     TORNADO          1 E PEORIA INTERNATIONA 40.67N 89.66W   
03/28/2020                   PEORIA             IL   TRAINED SPOTTER   
  
            A WEAK TORNADO TOUCHED DOWN NEAR THE AIRPORT AND PRODUCED  
            EF-0 TO LOW EF-1 DAMAGE. FULL REPORT WILL COME LATER.   
            TREE DAMAGE AND MINOR ROOF DAMAGE REPORTED.  
  

[Hoosier]

DVN has confirmed several tornadoes.

[Hoosier]

Oregon, IL tornado rated EF1.  7 mile path.

[andyhb]

We were very close to at least partially realizing those crazy HRRR runs from Friday afternoon/evening.

[Jackstraw]

26 minutes ago, andyhb said:

We were very close to at least partially realizing those crazy HRRR runs from Friday afternoon/evening.

  That's why I agreed with what SPC did yesterday even though some were bashing them.  This event was on the extreme edge of several Jonesboro's occurring.  With low level inhibition still managed 22 tornadoes.  Could've easily been 3 times that.

[nwohweather]

13 hours ago, Jackstraw said:

  That's why I agreed with what SPC did yesterday even though some were bashing them.  This event was on the extreme edge of several Jonesboro's occurring.  With low level inhibition still managed 22 tornadoes.  Could've easily been 3 times that.

22 is still a pretty good outbreak for a single day.

[Chinook]

This is my best interpretation of the storm survey of the Jonesboro tornado (12.55 mile track)

[high risk]

Realizing that this isn't really the right local forum for this question, but since the correct forum isn't very busy and there has been plenty of discussion about this case in this thread, does anyone have a good feel for why the Jonesboro violent tornado occurred?         SPC's outlook didn't have hatched probs in AR, and the MD they issued a little while before the event  mentioned the possibility of only a few QLCS tornadoes.  The mid-afternoon LZK sounding had decent a decent wind profile, but low-level shear was very modest.    The environment in northeast AR didn't seem particularly special.       Was there a rapid improvement in parameters late Saturday afternoon that wasn't captured?   Or did the storm find a boundary to latch on to?