twistingtornado Posted March 28, 2020 Share Posted March 28, 2020 5 minutes ago, andyhb said: Look at the VWP from DMX before deciding that. Wasn't talking about Iowa, was talking about the area highlighted for long track tornadoes in Missouri in Mesoscale Discussion 250. Currently isn't in a watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted March 28, 2020 Share Posted March 28, 2020 20Z JEFFERSON CITY FAIR 76 64 66 S22G35 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted March 28, 2020 Share Posted March 28, 2020 3 minutes ago, geddyweather said: 20z gonna be late. Weeeeeee. Meanwhile, interesting looking cell trying to take shape NW of Indy along the warm front. Getting to the time of the day where wind profiles in this area were going to start growing more favorable IIRC. That cell is just on the eastern edge of the insane helicity in Illinois within the PDS watch area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherMonger Posted March 28, 2020 Share Posted March 28, 2020 69/67 KSPI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted March 28, 2020 Share Posted March 28, 2020 Moderate again maintained. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 28, 2020 Share Posted March 28, 2020 Mod risk remains at 20z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherMonger Posted March 28, 2020 Share Posted March 28, 2020 No High Risk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted March 28, 2020 Share Posted March 28, 2020 Quote DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0306 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2020 VALID 282000Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHERN/CENTRAL IL AND FAR EASTERN IA... ..SUMMARY A SEVERE-WEATHER OUTBREAK IS EXPECTED FOR PORTIONS OF THE MIDWEST THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A FEW LONG-TRACKED, SIGNIFICANT TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE, ALONG WITH LARGE, DAMAGING HAIL AND SEVERE GUSTS. ..20Z UPDATE NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EARLIER THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON HAVE HAMPERED SUBSTANTIAL DESTABILIZATION ACROSS PARTS OF IL AND EASTERN IA SO FAR TODAY. EVEN SO, INSTABILITY IS STILL FORECAST TO GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING AS MODEST DIURNAL HEATING OCCURS IN TANDEM WITH MOISTENING LOW LEVELS AND COOLING MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES WITH THE APPROACH OF THE UPPER TROUGH. SHEAR PROFILES WILL BE QUITE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS, AND THE POTENTIAL FOR BOTH TORNADOES AND LARGE HAIL REMAINS EVIDENT. HOWEVER, THERE IS CONCERN THAT INSTABILITY MAY NOT REACH LEVELS PREVIOUSLY FORECAST DUE TO THE PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER AND EARLIER/ONGOING PRECIPITATION. REGARDLESS, WILL MAINTAIN THE MODERATE RISK AREA ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHERN/CENTRAL IL AND FAR EASTERN IA WITH NO CHANGES GIVEN THE VERY STRONG SHEAR PROFILES AND DEVELOPING CONVECTION ACROSS PORTIONS OF MO AND SOUTHERN/CENTRAL IA. A 30% WIND AREA HAS BEEN INTRODUCED FOR PARTS OF THE MID MS VALLEY AND MID-SOUTH INTO IN. CONVECTION GRADUALLY INCREASING IN INTENSITY ACROSS AR ALONG THE COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THIS REGION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS LOW-LEVEL FLOW STRENGTHENS. A LINEAR MODE WILL LIKELY DOMINATE WITH DAMAGING WINDS THE MAIN THREAT, BUT EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS AND QLCS MESOVORTICIES WITH SOME TORNADO POTENTIAL ALSO APPEAR POSSIBLE. ACCORDINGLY, THE ENHANCED RISK HAS BEEN EXPANDED SOUTHWARD/EASTWARD TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS POTENTIAL. A MODEST EXPANSION OF THE MARGINAL AND SLIGHT RISK AREAS HAS BEEN MADE FROM PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST INTO THE TN VALLEY AND LOWER OH VALLEY TO ACCOUNT FOR BANDS OF CONVECTION CAPABLE OF PRODUCING ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS AND PERHAPS A COUPLE TORNADOES LATE THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. INSTABILITY SHOULD SLOWLY WANE TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD, AND A GRADUAL REDUCTION IS STORM INTENSITY SHOULD OCCUR WITH EASTWARD EXTENT. THE MARGINAL AND SLIGHT RISK AREAS HAVE BEEN EXPANDED A LITTLE EASTWARD INTO PARTS OF WESTERN PA AND VICINITY TO ACCOUNT FOR ONGOING STRONG TO SEVERE CONVECTION CAPABLE OF MAINLY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD WEAKEN WITH EASTWARD EXTENT INTO CENTRAL PA WHERE INSTABILITY IS MUCH MORE LIMITED. FINALLY, SEVERE PROBABILITIES HAVE BEEN REDUCED ACROSS PARTS OF TX AND AR BEHIND AN EASTWARD-MOVING COLD FRONT/DRYLINE. ..GLEASON.. 03/28/2020 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoalCityWxMan Posted March 28, 2020 Share Posted March 28, 2020 Looks like SPC is holding serve. Seems like a good choice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted March 28, 2020 Share Posted March 28, 2020 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted March 28, 2020 Share Posted March 28, 2020 a little late to the party ..20Z UPDATE HOWEVER, THERE IS CONCERN THAT INSTABILITY MAY NOT REACH LEVELS PREVIOUSLY FORECAST DUE TO THE PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER AND EARLIER/ONGOING PRECIPITATION. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
geddyweather Posted March 28, 2020 Share Posted March 28, 2020 "Given existing uncertainties due to ongoing precipitation/cloud cover, and anticipated/rapid changes in the environment as the warm front lifts northward and clouds thin/clear from the west, confidence remains too low to delineate a potentially concentrated area of greatest risk, which would otherwise support high risk upgrade." Yeahhhh, kinda saw that one coming. It's the right call IMO, and it actually somewhat explains the decision making behind the PDS watch a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted March 28, 2020 Share Posted March 28, 2020 Is central Iowa going to explode soon? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IMADreamer Posted March 28, 2020 Share Posted March 28, 2020 Sun just peaking out here finally. We've jumped three degrees in the last hour or so. I think the game may be a foot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted March 28, 2020 Share Posted March 28, 2020 Too much shear for the updrafts currently. Dewpoints not where they need to be. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted March 28, 2020 Share Posted March 28, 2020 If I was out I'd wanna be on that cell coming up towards Quincy. Winds nicely backed ahead of it, and moisture levels in that area are pretty nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted March 28, 2020 Share Posted March 28, 2020 IA has produced under my expectations thus far, kind of surprised actually. I think that's not a good sign overall. For now looks like too much shear for the lacking instability. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted March 28, 2020 Share Posted March 28, 2020 Just now, andyhb said: Too much shear for the updrafts currently. Dewpoints not where they need to be. Literally beat me by a minute. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jpeters3 Posted March 28, 2020 Share Posted March 28, 2020 I've done work in this area. Strong shear makes convection deepen at a slower rate: https://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/JAS-D-18-0296.1 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted March 28, 2020 Share Posted March 28, 2020 Yea these dew points are drastically lower than models depicted. I'm surprised. There was a good reservoir of mid to upper 60 dews in the lower mid Mississippi Valley last night. Really thought those would advect north quickly. I think the EML ended up being less robust and maybe some mixing near dry slot. IL has been in training showers and clouds all day. Dry slot is finally progressing east but not sure we will have enough time to recover much. Definitely wasn't expecting all this crapvection to persist so long Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted March 28, 2020 Share Posted March 28, 2020 the is some late clearing NW of STL ..ahead of what appears to the a convergence line with some CU note: not talking about the spoke of CU over southern IA into N MO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted March 28, 2020 Share Posted March 28, 2020 On 3/28/2020 at 3:32 PM, jpeters3 said: I've done work in this area. Strong shear makes convection deepen at a slower rate: https://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/JAS-D-18-0296.1 While true, if it is a continued issue, it has also proven to also be a mitigating factor in significant/sustained severe. ...Which we have seen plenty of times before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jpeters3 Posted March 28, 2020 Share Posted March 28, 2020 6 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said: While true, if it is a continued issue, it has also proven to also be a mitigating issue in significant/sustained severe. ...Which we have seen plenty of times before. I agree, I think it might be mitigating development in this case. Edit: now seeing tops approach 35 Kft in the vicinity of Des Moines, and storms are looking healthier. We shall see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jackstraw Posted March 28, 2020 Share Posted March 28, 2020 Golf balls 15 miles to my south, they can have them. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
geddyweather Posted March 28, 2020 Share Posted March 28, 2020 Next 2-3 hours are possibly gonna be the make or break stretch. Radar clearing quickly from Champaign, IL to St. Louis, MO but idk if its going to be enough. Meanwhile, interesting string of cells erupting N and E of Des Moines... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwohweather Posted March 28, 2020 Share Posted March 28, 2020 Feel bad for Chicago, Detroit and Toledo who are mired north of the front due to convection and the Lakes. It’s 87° here in the Charleston area currently 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherMonger Posted March 28, 2020 Share Posted March 28, 2020 Newest watch, has 50/20 probabilities Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jackstraw Posted March 28, 2020 Share Posted March 28, 2020 Just now, nwohweather said: Feel bad for Chicago, Detroit and Toledo who are mired north of the front due to convection and the Lakes. It’s 87° here in the Charleston area currently You're about a month away from 95/75 every day with 90% humidity lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherMonger Posted March 28, 2020 Share Posted March 28, 2020 About 7 hours late but sun shining here in KSPI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 28, 2020 Share Posted March 28, 2020 Decently wide area of backed low level flow, though instability obviously lacking with northward extent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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