King James Posted March 28, 2020 Share Posted March 28, 2020 Cold and foggy, wf doesn't stand a chance hereSkilling agrees with you. West and south of city for any tornadoes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted March 28, 2020 Share Posted March 28, 2020 Liking the IA triple point right now given the dry slot pushing in. Should see large hodographs juxtaposed with sufficient low level buoyancy for tornado potential there. The junk further south and lack of warm frontal progression really has me questioning the current moderate risk area. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted March 28, 2020 Share Posted March 28, 2020 Champaign 68/66 Effingham 73/68 how far north that WF progresses today is the key....as is the strength of the deepening surface low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted March 28, 2020 Share Posted March 28, 2020 Some locations in southeast Iowa are approaching 70º as well. It's still 48º here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jackstraw Posted March 28, 2020 Share Posted March 28, 2020 SEL7 URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 67 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 140 PM EDT Sat Mar 28 2020 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of much of Indiana much of Ohio western Pennsylvania the northern West Virginia Panhandle * Effective this Saturday afternoon and evening from 140 PM until 800 PM EDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible Isolated damaging wind gusts to 65 mph possible A tornado or two possible Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherMonger Posted March 28, 2020 Share Posted March 28, 2020 T'storm watch for IN/OH/W PA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted March 28, 2020 Share Posted March 28, 2020 SPC holding on to that outlook is not going to fair well at all. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jackstraw Posted March 28, 2020 Share Posted March 28, 2020 8 minutes ago, Indystorm said: Champaign 68/66 Effingham 73/68 how far north that WF progresses today is the key....as is the strength of the deepening surface low. Agree. Also storms are firing along a prominent OFB from this mornings convection.along I-70 in IN. I'm still concerned about some unusually large hail for central IN. I hate hail lol. Edit: That WF is also meandering. Temps dropped 12 degrees in the last 90 min with no precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted March 28, 2020 Share Posted March 28, 2020 8 minutes ago, andyhb said: Liking the IA triple point right now given the dry slot pushing in. Should see large hodographs juxtaposed with sufficient low level buoyancy for tornado potential there. The junk further south and lack of warm frontal progression really has me questioning the current moderate risk area. Generally agree. IA into far NE MO and far W IL is the only area that is really interesting. However, even there you have to question the full quality of final recovery. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted March 28, 2020 Share Posted March 28, 2020 Just now, Chicago Storm said: Generally agree. IA into far NE MO and far W IL is the only area that is really interesting. However, even there you have to question the full quality of final recovery. Better lapse rates aloft will help to some degree, but time will tell soon. High res guidance shows surface temps spiking up over the next 1-2 hours, so we’ll find out soon if that verifies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted March 28, 2020 Share Posted March 28, 2020 5 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said: SPC holding on to that outlook is not going to fair well at all. Did the same thing 5/18/17 with a high risk, turned out to be a mostly bad outlook... Different set of circumstances that day though.. EDIT: Also looks like we have CI along the PCF north of SGF. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted March 28, 2020 Share Posted March 28, 2020 mini discrete cells developing north of SGF MO....and other CU building from that in an arc into SW IA main show may be starting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted March 28, 2020 Share Posted March 28, 2020 6 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said: Generally agree. IA into far NE MO and far W IL is the only area that is really interesting. However, even there you have to question the full quality of final recovery. I mean model soundings up there are yielding moderate buoyancy even with 67/63 type T/Td pairs, which I think is achievable with the dry slot. Cold air aloft helping a lot. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted March 28, 2020 Share Posted March 28, 2020 2 minutes ago, andyhb said: I mean model soundings up there are yielding moderate buoyancy even with 67/63 type T/Td pairs, which I think is achievable with the dry slot. Cold air aloft helping a lot. Which is what we’re just about seeing now: 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlbiaHawk Posted March 28, 2020 Share Posted March 28, 2020 Sunny 70 degrees and 64 RH in Mount Pleasant, Iowa. Watching and waiting. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted March 28, 2020 Share Posted March 28, 2020 Obs > CAMs especially on a day like this. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
featherwx Posted March 28, 2020 Share Posted March 28, 2020 if I’m in Chicago would it be worth driving a couple hours W/SW at this point to catch the action later? seems like the good stuff might stay even further away than that at this point... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted March 28, 2020 Share Posted March 28, 2020 27 minutes ago, Jackstraw said: Agree. Also storms are firing along a prominent OFB from this mornings convection.along I-70 in IN. I'm still concerned about some unusually large hail for central IN. I hate hail lol. Edit: That WF is also meandering. Temps dropped 12 degrees in the last 90 min with no precip. Wind has turned north here as well now. And you may have a couple svr cells with quarter hail headed your way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jackstraw Posted March 28, 2020 Share Posted March 28, 2020 Tor watch incoming for MO and southern IL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted March 28, 2020 Share Posted March 28, 2020 Based on that recently issued SPC meso discussion it looks like St. Louis metro area could be in line for some long tracked tornadoes later on today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted March 28, 2020 Share Posted March 28, 2020 Looks like we have CI in NE MO. Just had some radar returns pop in Macon County. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted March 28, 2020 Share Posted March 28, 2020 Mesoscale Discussion 0251 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0133 PM CDT Sat Mar 28 2020 Areas affected...Parts of central/northeast Missouri into southeast Iowa and portions of west central Illinois Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely Valid 281833Z - 282030Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...The initiation of scattered supercells appears increasingly probable during the next few hours. Tornadic potential, including the risk for strong tornadoes, seems likely to increase by 4-6 PM CDT. DISCUSSION...Rapid deepening of the surface cyclone now centered over southeastern Nebraska is ongoing, with an axis of 2-4 mb 2-hourly surface pressure falls now pivoting northeastward, to the northeast of the lower Missouri Valley. To the southeast of cyclone center, a dryline continues to sharpen across southwestern Iowa and western Missouri, and may maintain identity into late afternoon, advancing northeastward just ahead of a surging cold front. Strengthening and backing (to southerly) 850 mb flow ahead of these boundaries is forecast to contribute to enlarging clockwise curved low-level hodographs by late afternoon, beneath a very strong (90-110 kt) 500 mb jet. As this occurs, the environment appears likely to become increasingly conducive to tornadic supercells given sufficient boundary-layer destabilization. Mid/high-level cloudiness and precipitation, to the south of the warm front near the Missouri/Iowa border, continues to slow boundary layer destabilization in the warm sector. However, a tongue of mid 60s+ surface dew points appears to be in the process of advecting north of the Missouri Ozarks, ahead of the dryline, in response to the strong surface pressure falls. As a vigorous upstream mid-level trough and embedded closed low accelerate northeast of the central Plains, broadly anticyclonic mid-level flow will increasingly transition to cyclonic across the region through 21-23Z. The leading edge of stronger difluence aloft may already be aiding convective development near the dryline and warm front, southeast of Shenandoah IA. A further increase in discrete storm development appears possible within the next couple of hours, along/ahead of the dryline to the south. Further development, intensification and northeastward advection of storms now spreading across the Missouri Ozarks also appears possible within the warm sector. Regardless, storms interacting with the warm front probably will pose a risk for tornadoes, while strong deep-layer wind fields and shear within the destabilizing open warm sector will contribute to fast storm motions and potential for long-lived/long track supercells with increasing potential to produce strong tornadoes across northeast Missouri into southeast Iowa and adjacent west central Illinois by 21-23Z. ..Kerr/Goss.. 03/28/2020 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlbiaHawk Posted March 28, 2020 Share Posted March 28, 2020 PDS coming or strongly worded Tor Watch?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted March 28, 2020 Share Posted March 28, 2020 As an interesting note, we'll have some storms develop near or at areas of 90 kt of effective shear. I don't think I've seen that. Most of the time, you can only get up to about 70 kt of shear in areas of surface instability. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted March 28, 2020 Share Posted March 28, 2020 4 minutes ago, AlbiaHawk said: PDS coming or strongly worded Tor Watch?? I'd guess a strongly worded tor watch. PDS watches I think are automatic with high risk, and I don't know if high risk will be issued in the latest update. But I think you can have PDS watches without a high risk. Hopefully a met can enlighten us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
xjcsa Posted March 28, 2020 Share Posted March 28, 2020 4 minutes ago, Indystorm said: I'd guess a strongly worded tor watch. PDS watches I think are automatic with high risk, and I don't know if high risk will be issued in the latest update. But I think you can have PDS watches without a high risk. Hopefully a met can enlighten us. PDS watches depend on the evaluation of the risk at the time of watch issuance, not on the outlook risk level. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CryHavoc Posted March 28, 2020 Share Posted March 28, 2020 7 minutes ago, Indystorm said: I'd guess a strongly worded tor watch. PDS watches I think are automatic with high risk, and I don't know if high risk will be issued in the latest update. But I think you can have PDS watches without a high risk. Hopefully a met can enlighten us. PDS watches are very common/frequent with MDT risk days as well, especially with elevated tornado probabilities. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted March 28, 2020 Share Posted March 28, 2020 PDS Tornado Watch PDS tornado watches are issued when there is a higher than normal risk of multiple strong to violent tornadoes – especially those that are predicted to be long-track in nature, with path lengths of more than 20 miles – in the watch area (usually amounting to damage consistent with EF4 or EF5 tornadoes at maximum), in addition to including significant wind and hail damage. This enhanced wording in a Tornado Watch is meant to alert the public of the potential for very life-threatening severe weather. While there are no set criteria for a PDS watch to be issued, they are usually issued when the potential exists for a major tornado outbreak. These types of tornado watches represent about 90% of PDS watches issued by the Storm Prediction Center. PDS Tornado Watches are often issued on high risk days for severe weather. From SPC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jackstraw Posted March 28, 2020 Share Posted March 28, 2020 Cell split in SE IA, looking froggy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted March 28, 2020 Share Posted March 28, 2020 24 minutes ago, Indystorm said: I'd guess a strongly worded tor watch. PDS watches I think are automatic with high risk, and I don't know if high risk will be issued in the latest update. But I think you can have PDS watches without a high risk. Hopefully a met can enlighten us. And even if you don't have a PDS watch you can still get violent tornadoes. Only need to go back to the memorial day tornado outbreak as evidence of that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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