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Upstate NY Banter and General Discussion..


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Didn't mean to start this shitstorm....just don't see how spending $3T on keeping people at home and debt forgiveness helps more than putting people back to work. Everyone is screaming about how the national Debt keeps going up until it means a free handout. 

+2 on the tweets, and I dont even have twitter.

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1 hour ago, DeltaT13 said:

You actually make a good point.  The toner for millions of reprinted checks isnt zero.  

To be clear no checks had been printed before the decision was made to put his name on them. 

A full page print at the high end is $.01 per print.

Standard check is 1/3 a page. 

So the cost of toner for the $19.7M checks that have gone out, (all the print, including Trumps name) is $66,501. 

So not millions.

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2 hours ago, Luke_Mages said:

To be clear no checks had been printed before the decision was made to put his name on them. 

A full page print at the high end is $.01 per print.

Standard check is 1/3 a page. 

So the cost of toner for the $19.7M checks that have gone out, (all the print, including Trumps name) is $66,501. 

So not millions.

I was definitely wrong about the cost.  Still thought it was a little narcissistic to have his name on there. 

We paid for those checks, thats the taxpayers money.  

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50 minutes ago, vortmax said:

Just for the record, I still love Delta. Our affinity for weather culture will always prevail! 

Yeah, I don't like getting personal either.  This forum has been an amazing place to discuss weather over the years and we all bring our own knowledge and flavor.  It would definitely be a lot less fun and more lonely tracking storms without all of you.  

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2 hours ago, DeltaT13 said:

I was definitely wrong about the cost.  Still thought it was a little narcissistic to have his name on there. 

We paid for those checks, thats the taxpayers money.  

I agree on the narcissism. I think ruffling feathers is part of his strategy, and he’s pretty good at it. 
 

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Don't look at the consumer to jump start the economy this summer.  Just like in 2008, when the future is murky, we hoard cash, pay off bills, and stop discretionary spending.  Going to be a long time until we crawl out of this hole. 

The good news is that there is going to be a whole ton of cash bottled up in the system that will eventually come out as the depression wanes.

In the meantime, hold on to your butts.  I'm saving cash like crazy.  My job is not safe beyond 18 months.  

https://www.cnn.com/2020/05/12/investing/jobs-coronavirus-consumer-spending-debt/index.html

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Florida's Ron DeSantis became the second governor to announce that his state is open to professional sports teams that want to resume activity amid the coronavirus pandemic.

"All professional sports are welcome here for practicing and for playing," DeSantis said at a news conference Wednesday in Tallahassee. "What I would tell commissioners of leagues is, if you have a team in an area where they just won't let them operate, we'll find a place for you here in the state of Florida."

On Tuesday, Arizona Gov. Doug Ducey announced that professional sports, including MLB, the NBA, the NHL and the NFL, may resume in the state -- without fans -- on Saturday, as long as Centers for Disease Control and Prevention guidelines are followed.

Last month, Florida's DeSantis had deemed sports "essential services," allowing WWE and UFC events to take place in the state without fans. The Tiger Woods-Peyton Manning vs. Phil Mickelson-Tom Brady golf match will be in Hobe Sound on May 24, also without fans.

DeSantis launched a phase 1 plan to reopen the state on Monday for all counties not including Miami-Dade and Broward. Those two counties will open this coming Monday.

The Miami Heat reopened their facility Wednesday for players to undergo voluntary, individual workouts. No more than four players can participate at a time.

DeSantis specifically mentioned baseball, soccer and basketball in his remarks Wednesday.

"Our people are starved to have some of this back in our lives," he said. "I think we can certainly do it in a way that's safe."

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Erie county is never going to open. You have to have 14 day decline in hospitalizations. Now we have to restart at a much lower number which will make it even harder. It should be a percentage, not a set number. At this rate hospitalizations go up from 100 to 101 you have to wait another 2 weeks and resets the counter? That is literally the dumbest thing I've ever heard of. So because 9 more people got hospitalized almost 1 million people have to wait another 2 weeks to open...?

image.png.1c5a7b35257379ad60b3d7385a4da576.png

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Just now, BuffaloWeather said:

Erie county is never going to open. You have to have 14 day decline in hospitalizations. Now we have to restart at a much lower number which will make it even harder. It should be a percentage, not a set number. At this rate hospitalizations go up from 100 to 101 you have to wait another 2 weeks and resets the counter? That is literally the dumbest thing I've ever heard of. So because 9 more people got hospitalized almost 1 million people have to wait another 2 weeks to open...?

image.png.1c5a7b35257379ad60b3d7385a4da576.png

They’re using a 3 day rolling average so a day or two blip should not mess up a long term trend however if you have 3 + days of increases obviously that wipes it out. Also I was surprised to learn today that the 400 deaths in Erie County are all in hospitals and do not include deaths in nursing homes. Could be people that were in nursing homes, transferred to the hospital than passed away and it would count towards the 400 but if they pass in the nursing home itself that doesn’t count towards the death count. Also probable deaths are also not counted to the true death toll is likely quite a bit higher but I do agree the way they’re doing it is going to be quite tough to achieve. 

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Just now, WesterlyWx said:

They’re using a 3 day rolling average so a day or two blip should not mess up a long term trend however if you have 3 + days of increases obviously that wipes it out. Also I was surprised to learn today that the 400 deaths in Erie County are all in hospitals and do not include deaths in nursing homes. Could be people that were in nursing homes, transferred to the hospital than passed away and it would count towards the 400 but if they pass in the nursing home itself that doesn’t count towards the death count. Also probable deaths are also not counted to the true death toll is likely quite a bit higher but I do agree the way they’re doing it is going to be quite tough to achieve. 

It's still quite dumb, they should have a target number to hit not a 3 day rolling average. Hospitalizations are down 43 in the last week. There are going to be many blips during the next few months, especially as we start to open up the state. We will have many 3 days in which go above average, especially as we get into the single digits of hospitalizations. What if 3 days we go from 99, 98, 97 to 100, 101, 102...We restart the 14 day countdown?

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28 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

It's still quite dumb, they should have a target number to hit not a 3 day rolling average. Hospitalizations are down 43 in the last week. There are going to be many blips during the next few months, especially as we start to open up the state. We will have many 3 days in which go above average, especially as we get into the single digits of hospitalizations. What if 3 days we go from 99, 98, 97 to 100, 101, 102...We restart the 14 day countdown?

I agree, and I’m not sure once we do reach the milestone and enter into phase 1 if we have a 3 day blip if they’ll close it back down or delay the start of phase 2, but not sure. It’s gonna be a long time before we see things even close to back to normal around here. If we’re lucky we reach phase 4 at the beginning of August which is entertainment and recreation. Doesn’t really matter though as everything will likely be cancelled before that anyways. You can pretty much kiss this summers events goodbye, no Canalside concerts, no taste of Buffalo, no Ride for Roswell, no Italian Fest, several towns/villages already cancelled their 4th of July fireworks/parades... you can bet the Erie a County Fair, Wingfest, etc will all be cancelled and if I had to guess right now I’d bet the NFL season gets cancelled as well, or at best they play with 0 fans. 

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3 minutes ago, WesterlyWx said:

I agree, and I’m not sure once we do reach the milestone and enter into phase 1 if we have a 3 day blip if they’ll close it back down or delay the start of phase 2, but not sure. It’s gonna be a long time before we see things even close to back to normal around here. If we’re lucky we reach phase 4 at the beginning of August which is entertainment and recreation. Doesn’t really matter though as everything will likely be cancelled before that anyways. You can pretty much kiss this summers events goodbye, no Canalside concerts, no taste of Buffalo, no Ride for Roswell, no Italian Fest, several towns/villages already cancelled their 4th of July fireworks/parades... you can bet the Erie a County Fair, Wingfest, etc will all be cancelled and if I had to guess right now I’d bet the NFL season gets cancelled as well, or at best they play with 0 fans. 

Just in time to get to level 4 and the flu season starts in conjunction with COVID. My hope is that once we reopen everything, there is no way the country shuts down for a second time. Well unless the country wants to give another 5+ trillion in stimulus money. There is also a massive election in November. No way trump keeps things closed down for his rally's and the republican governors will listen to whatever he says in order to get re-elected. As the states control the openings I think the democratic governors will keep things locked down for a longer period of time to show Trump he was wrong wanting states to reopen. There will be a direct divide between blue and red states and cases of covid/deaths/etc...Going to be an insane end of 2020.

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5 minutes ago, WesterlyWx said:

I agree, and I’m not sure once we do reach the milestone and enter into phase 1 if we have a 3 day blip if they’ll close it back down or delay the start of phase 2, but not sure. It’s gonna be a long time before we see things even close to back to normal around here. If we’re lucky we reach phase 4 at the beginning of August which is entertainment and recreation. Doesn’t really matter though as everything will likely be cancelled before that anyways. You can pretty much kiss this summers events goodbye, no Canalside concerts, no taste of Buffalo, no Ride for Roswell, no Italian Fest, several towns/villages already cancelled their 4th of July fireworks/parades... you can bet the Erie a County Fair, Wingfest, etc will all be cancelled and if I had to guess right now I’d bet the NFL season gets cancelled as well, or at best they play with 0 fans. 

Every single summer festival has been canceled in Rochester through September and we are doing better than buffalo. I’m shocked they haven’t canceled all those things already. 

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2 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Just in time to get to level 4 and the flu season starts in conjunction with COVID. My hope is that once we reopen everything, there is no way the country shuts down for a second time. Well unless the country wants to give another 5+ trillion in stimulus money. There is also a massive election in November.

This was actually a growing concern as luckily the the peak of Covid is/was coming as Flu was really on the decline. If we have a second peak of Covid in the fall/winter I wonder how hospitals are going to fare as they’ll likely already be fuller from Influenza patients..

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Just now, WesterlyWx said:

This was actually a growing concern as luckily the the peak of Covid is/was coming as Flu was really on the decline. If we have a second peak of Covid in the fall/winter I wonder how hospitals are going to fare as they’ll likely already be fuller from Influenza patients..

I added to my post. What do you think about the rest?

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6 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Just in time to get to level 4 and the flu season starts in conjunction with COVID. My hope is that once we reopen everything, there is no way the country shuts down for a second time. Well unless the country wants to give another 5+ trillion in stimulus money. There is also a massive election in November. No way trump keeps things closed down for his rally's and the republican governors will listen to whatever he says in order to get re-elected. As the states control the openings I think the democratic governors will keep things locked down for a longer period of time to show Trump he was wrong wanting states to reopen. There will be a direct divide between blue and red states and cases of covid/deaths/etc...Going to be an insane end of 2020.

Civil War? 
 

I agree with what your thinking and could totally see that happening. It does seem that the blue states are harder hit, likely because they are generally in the northern part of the Country as well as generally more populated/densely populated than red states. I can definitely see things waning this summer and people get outdoors more and get more vitamin D and are still practicing social distancing. However over time people are slowly going to go back to their old habits pre Coronavirus and not wear a mask as frequently/washing of hands. This combined with everyone gathering back inside again come fall I really could see a second peak coming but I don’t see the Country shutting down for it again unless it is somewhat worse than this first wave. I think some of the shutdown was also due to the unknown. This all came so quick and we had so little time to figure out what to do the best thing at the time was to just shut everything down to prevent as much spread as possible. Now that we do know more about the virus, we do more with masking up/washing hands/ social distancing, and a percentage of the population will already have antibodies I’m not sure the second wave will be as bad as the first. Also brings me to another thing, if people have antibodies now will they still protect them (if they even do in the first place) in the Fall/Winter if there is another outbreak as that could be 5-8 months down the road from now? 

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8 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

I added to my post. What do you think about the rest?

I think supplies, experience, PPE, and possibly a treatment will be in stock by Fall.  COVID-19 is a reality now.  Mankind is going to work exceedingly hard at this problem.  There will be more ventilators, masks, hospital beds, etc in this country than in any time before.  We will learn to coexist and deal with this bastard, it just takes some time.  It's only been a few months...

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10 minutes ago, WesterlyWx said:

Civil War? 
 

I agree with what your thinking and could totally see that happening. It does seem that the blue states are harder hit, likely because they are generally in the northern part of the Country as well as generally more populated/densely populated than red states. I can definitely see things waning this summer and people get outdoors more and get more vitamin D and are still practicing social distancing. However over time people are slowly going to go back to their old habits pre Coronavirus and not wear a mask as frequently/washing of hands. This combined with everyone gathering back inside again come fall I really could see a second peak coming but I don’t see the Country shutting down for it again unless it is somewhat worse than this first wave. I think some of the shutdown was also due to the unknown. This all came so quick and we had so little time to figure out what to do the best thing at the time was to just shut everything down to prevent as much spread as possible. Now that we do know more about the virus, we do more with masking up/washing hands/ social distancing, and a percentage of the population will already have antibodies I’m not sure the second wave will be as bad as the first. Also brings me to another thing, if people have antibodies now will they still protect them (if they even do in the first place) in the Fall/Winter if there is another outbreak as that could be 5-8 months down the road from now? 

The antibodies should protect them based on my research unless the virus mutates. As we know the flu virus mutates quite a bit year over year. We do not know what's coming in Fall. What if we have a 2017-2018 flu season in conjunction with a rapid spread of COVID?....We have to prepare for the worst.

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Moderna's phase 3 COVID RNA vaccine is planned to start summertime. If successful, with our accelerated schedule, may see a vaccine by Q1 2021. Maybe earlier, who knows.

There's another vaccine being developed in China which is more like the typical inactivated virus ones we see with the Flu. Not sure I would trust any vaccine coming out of China though. 

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On 5/12/2020 at 3:04 PM, vortmax said:

"The Republicans own this mess and always will. "

Really?

Initial grant was approved under the Obama administration in 2014 for $3.7M funding research of bat coronavirus and some of that went to the Wuhan Institute of Virology.

What's True

A portion of $3.7 million in grants awarded between 2014 and 2019 by the National Institutes of Health (NIH) to EcoHealth Alliance, a global environmental health nonprofit organization, helped fund research at the Wuhan Institute of Virology in China. 

What's False

However, not all of that $3.7 million went to the Wuhan Institute of Virology, and not all of the funding took place under the Obama administration. Approximately $700,000 of the $3.7 million total was approved under Donald Trump.

So instead of trying to place blame on a single person or party, let's understand the responsibility falls on many from both sides.

Raging against the 3.7 that went to Wuhan is a mistake and here’s why: you want government funded research scientists on the ground in the part of the world where (unfortunately) so many of our viruses come from. Trump, in his nationalist way (and anti anything Obama way) shut down lots of things having to do with pandemic research. 
We shouldn’t look at this as tribal warfare (I’m guilty too) we should take a real look at how we can avoid this in the future. 
it just boggles my mind that the 3.7 is being used as proof of something nefarious when it was, in fact, exactly what we need more of. 

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On 5/12/2020 at 3:09 PM, vortmax said:
shill
INFORMALNORTH AMERICAN
noun
  1. an accomplice of a hawker, gambler, or swindler who acts as an enthusiastic customer to entice or encourage others.
 
Doesn't sound very nice to me...just sayin'. "Loyal shill" is what you said to be precise.

It actually fits, to a T, every defender of Trump. The guys a con man, a liar, a phony. 
I can respect lots of divergent opinions (I’m even open to being influenced), but at this point, I can’t respect anyone who defends Trump. I just cant. 
Today he’s accusing the past President of treason....

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On 5/12/2020 at 9:23 PM, Luke_Mages said:

I agree on the narcissism. I think ruffling feathers is part of his strategy, and he’s pretty good at it. 
 

I’ll never understand why you guys appreciate this about Trump. You should dig deep and evaluate why it brings you joy when he brings anguish to others. It’s the one thing I hate most about the movement. It’s sadism. 

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