Upstate NY Banter and General Discussion..

[lakeeffectkid383]

16 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Because old people die bro. It is what it is. The average age of death with this virus is 75 and the average age of death is 78.5 in the USA. Why is that hard to grasp? Less then 5% of people who die from Covid are under 70. Once you get under 65 its far less. The chart above is the reason why, as you age those conditions become more prevalent. I swear some people think we live forever. It's just hard truth.

My grandma is more important to me then anyone on this planet. She was born in 1933 and will be 87 in December and when she dies it will be the worst day I'll ever have to experience. She hasn't left her house since this all started. I haven't visited her at all. She got an ipad before this started and we've been zooming her, but it just inst the same as seeing her. The people susceptible to this disease should stay at home while we get this under control, but the rest of us should get on with our life and stop being so soft.

According to ECDOH 25% of deaths are under 70 not 5 percent. 

[lakeeffectkid383]

12 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

The pause hasn't been extended. It was a false report going around today .

Thanks for the clarification, even the news outlets were reporting this earlier. 
 

 

[lakeeffectkid383]

30 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Need more contact tracing/testing. I believe we are on day 6-7 for decline in hospitalizations?

I’m not sure as the NYSDOH stopped reporting on 5/6 to update their system. However in the 2 days before the system stopped reporting the hospitalizations the hospitalizations went up slightly (245 hospitalizations from 240). There hasn’t been more than a 2 or 3 day decrease in hospitalizations before there’s 3-4 days of Increase of hospitalizations. Also interesting to note 110 of 245 hospitalizations were for those under 65 years old. 
 

For the past week admissions exceeded discharges 168 to 152. Its important to note that deaths are also considered discharges so if 30 people are admitted in a given day  and there’s 30 discharges, 15 of those “discharges” could be deaths thus making the numbers look more flatlined. Some leaders are trying to change this as a discharge is technically defined as “the point at which the patient leaves the hospital and either returns home or is transferred to another facility such as one for rehabilitation or to a nursing home. Discharge involves the medical instructions that the patient will need to fully recover.”

[lakeeffectkid383]

https://www.wivb.com/news/local-news/erie-county-to-reopen-in-four-phases/
 

Looks like WNY region likely won’t even begin phase 1 until June with phase 4 not happening until August if everything goes smoothly.

[lakeeffectkid383]

1 hour ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Need more contact tracing/testing. I believe we are on day 6-7 for decline in hospitalizations?

The 14 day decline in deaths that WNY was previously meeting will likely not be met anymore once updated. The past week has been the deadliest week yet in Erie County with nearly 100 deaths.

[BuffaloWeather]

My place was under reduced hours for the last 6 or so weeks. Monday we go back to pretty much normal operating hours. We have a 3 phases before we go back to normal.

[BuffaloWeather]

A post from another forum I follow.

Looking at the curve of deaths for Stockholm, it further proves the absurdity of the "immunity threshold" claimes of 50-67%. Stockholm has approximately 20% immunity by sample sized antibody tests made.

This is the number of dead the last 48 days. Remember that there is a lag in the death toll numbers of approximately 3.5 weeks (from infection to dead), and the direction of the curve is further enhanced by the numbers of new intake of ER patients that is only a 3rd now compared to the peak (didn't find a good curve of that). Rolling average of 7 days I think.


So why is the number of dead down by 50%? Immunity is maybe 20% in Stockholm like in NYC. If the immunity threshold was 50-67%, what has made Stockholm's curve go down significantly, all curves are pointing down. Why?

Social distancing? Stockholm has very lax restrictions. Schools are open, resturants are open and sometimes crowded. Business is open. How can Stockholm have been able to reduce deaths by 50% while other places -- with a lower immunity rate, i.e. they are not as far along the curve as Stockholm -- are not being able to reduce their curve much if at all yet despite complete lockdown?

This is the question that Michael Levitt poses. Is Stockholm really doing such a better job at social distancing than all other places that hasn't reached immunity around 20%?

There are also perfectly understandable math behind this: Herd immunity may only need 10-20 per cent of people to be infected | The Spectator Just looking at the headcount like you do with vaccine program is very misleading when you are looking at immunity from recovered patients. Nature will of course infect those who are the most likely to get it first, as a consequence, those who come in contact with the most people and/or are the most susceptible to get the virus will get immunity first when nature is doing the selection unlike a random vaccine program.

To quote Nobel Price winner Michael Levitt:
"You could say that each of these places stopped because they had wonderful social distancing, or we can simply say they stopped because there was no one left to infect."

Someone need to explain this or it should be much more talk about it in main stream media. Have Stockholm, the one place in the world with maybe the least social distancing right now, really done a "wonderful" job with social distancing, is that the reason? Over and out.

[BuffaloWeather]

Herd immunity may only need 10-20 per cent of people to be infected

https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/herd-immunity-may-only-need-a-10-per-cent-infection-rate

The Spanish Flu of 1918 only infected 28% of America.

[CNY_WX]

9 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Because old people die bro. It is what it is. The average age of death with this virus is 75 and the average age of death is 78.5 in the USA. Why is that hard to grasp? Less then 5% of people who die from Covid are under 70. Once you get under 65 its far less. The chart above is the reason why, as you age those conditions become more prevalent. I swear some people think we live forever. It's just hard truth.

My grandma is more important to me then anyone on this planet. She was born in 1933 and will be 87 in December and when she dies it will be the worst day I'll ever have to experience. She hasn't left her house since this all started. I haven't visited her at all. She got an ipad before this started and we've been zooming her, but it just inst the same as seeing her. The people susceptible to this disease should stay at home while we get this under control, but the rest of us should get on with our life and stop being so soft.

I would like to know at what age does the value of life start to decline?  You contradict yourself, first you say if they’re over 70 they’re going to die anyways then you say  your 86 year old grandmother means the world to you and you’re doing everything you can to protect her.  So I guess if you don’t know someone their life if disposable so you can resume your normal lifestyle?  Remember, people over 70 are someone’s grandmother, grandfather, mother, father, sister or brother and mean the same to those people as your grandmother means to you.  I know you’re young and feel bulletproof and chomping at the bit to resume the activities you enjoy.  But we can’t just drop all of the mitigation measures that have at least kept this virus manageable without expecting a jump in infections, hospitalizations and deaths.  And just a reminder, there are people in your demographic that have gotten seriously ill from Covid-19.

[MJO812]

It is simple

Cuomo wants more federal help. He isnt going to do anything until he gets that.

[lakeeffectkid383]

1 hour ago, CNY_WX said:

I would like to know at what age does the value of life start to decline?  You contradict yourself, first you say if they’re over 70 they’re going to die anyways then you say  your 86 year old grandmother means the world to you and you’re doing everything you can to protect her.  So I guess if you don’t know someone their life if disposable so you can resume your normal lifestyle?  Remember, people over 70 are someone’s grandmother, grandfather, mother, father, sister or brother and mean the same to those people as your grandmother means to you.  I know you’re young and feel bulletproof and chomping at the bit to resume the activities you enjoy.  But we can’t just drop all of the mitigation measures that have at least kept this virus manageable without expecting a jump in infections, hospitalizations and deaths.  And just a reminder, there are people in your demographic that have gotten seriously ill from Covid-19.

Yep I’m super nervous about my fiancé who is 25 but has hypertension and a weakened immune system from being pregnant. Super nerve wracking going to the hospital to give birth knowing there could be people there who have it who are asymptomatic and she’s much more susceptible to it than I am. 

[BuffaloWeather]

3 hours ago, CNY_WX said:

I would like to know at what age does the value of life start to decline?  You contradict yourself, first you say if they’re over 70 they’re going to die anyways then you say  your 86 year old grandmother means the world to you and you’re doing everything you can to protect her.  So I guess if you don’t know someone their life if disposable so you can resume your normal lifestyle?  Remember, people over 70 are someone’s grandmother, grandfather, mother, father, sister or brother and mean the same to those people as your grandmother means to you.  I know you’re young and feel bulletproof and chomping at the bit to resume the activities you enjoy.  But we can’t just drop all of the mitigation measures that have at least kept this virus manageable without expecting a jump in infections, hospitalizations and deaths.  And just a reminder, there are people in your demographic that have gotten seriously ill from Covid-19.

My point is the majority of those older and more susceptible to the disease already stay at home. My grandma rarely left the house at all besides shopping for food, and now my aunt does that for her. We have to take certain measures to protect those vulnerable, but for the rest of us we have to open up the country before we destroy more lives then we help.

Of course there are but the percentage is not enough to shut down the entire country for. We face HUGE risk everyday. I think driving our cars is unnecessary for most jobs. I've been in 2 life threatening car accidents where I thought I was going to die. Why don't we all work from home to prevent this from happening? School shootings have been going up and up each year, why don't we teach our kids from home to stop this threat? As soon as we walk out the door we face numerous risks to our life that are preventable from staying at home.

[BuffaloWeather]

According to the CDC the flu in a normal season kills quite a bit more young people then covid does. (Depending on what age group you stop at)

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/2017-2018.htm

[lakeeffectkid383]

13 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

According to the CDC the flu in a normal season kills quite a bit more young people then covid does.

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/2017-2018.htm

This is false. First your comparing apples to oranges. Your comparing a virus that has infected over 45,000,000 a year on average to a virus that has only been in the US for less than 3 months and has infected far less people. The number of deaths in younger people may be more but that’s only because there’s more people infected. If you look at the number of deaths in the under 65 category they add up to 10,197. That makes up only 16 percent of the 61,000 deaths from the flu that season. Right now on average from World O Meters and the CDC approximately 25-30% of the deaths from Covid are under the age of 65. You can’t use the shear number of deaths from an illness that has infected far more people and compare it to another illness that hasn’t infected as much of the population.

[BuffaloWeather]

23 minutes ago, WesterlyWx said:

This is false. First your comparing apples to oranges. Your comparing a virus that has infected over 45,000,000 a year on average to a virus that has only been in the US for less than 3 months and has infected far less people. The number of deaths in younger people may be more but that’s only because there’s more people infected. If you look at the number of deaths in the under 65 category they add up to 10,197. That makes up only 16 percent of the 61,000 deaths from the flu that season. Right now on average from World O Meters and the CDC approximately 25-30% of the deaths from Covid are under the age of 65. You can’t use the shear number of deaths from an illness that has infected far more people and compare it to another illness that hasn’t infected as much of the population.

The Flu season is usually only a few months in winter. We don't know how many people got affected by this yet. 50-80% of people are asymptomatic according to CDC. The virus was in the USA in Late Nov/Early Dec which meant it ran rampant for 4 months. How many people have really been hit by this? Probably tens of millions+. You're using 65 as as the age. Go look at the age from the flu season of 17-18 in the USA. 643 people died under 17 years old, we're not seeing that in this country from COVID.

Did you read my posts from earlier in regards to Sweden, Herd immunity possibly being lower then thought and that the spanish flu of 1918 only affected 28% of Americans. We have to stop using the entire population as a dataset as people who are asymptomatic are going to be the majority of the population.

[BuffaloWeather]

Cuomo just interviewed begging for money from Trump. What if every state starts asking for 20-30 billion to balance their budget? I just don't see that happening.

[OSUmetstud]

5 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

The Flu season is usually only a few months in winter. We don't know how many people got affected by this yet. 50-80% of people are asymptomatic according to CDC. The virus was in the USA in Late Nov/Early Dec which meant it ran rampant for 4 months. How many people have really been hit by this? Probably tens of millions+. You're using 65 as as the age. Go look at the age from the flu season of 17-18 in the USA. 643 people died under 17 years old, we're not seeing that in this country from COVID.

Did you read my posts from earlier in regards to Sweden, Herd immunity possibly being lower then thought and that the spanish flu of 1918 only affected 28% of Americans. We have to stop using the entire population as a dataset as people who are asymptomatic are going to be the majority of the population.

That was the worst flu season in modern history...

The Spanish flu had a lower Ro than Sars Cov 2 and we only know the flu cases from then that were clinically significant. We didn't do antibody testing in 1918. So there was likely asymptomatic or sub clinic cases then too. So what you're seeing from 1918 is really the cases and the case fatality rate. 

Where are you getting the 50 to 80 percent asymptomatic infections according to the cdc?

I can't find any info on the reddit thing you posted about 20 percent positive for antibodies in stockholm. 

[OSUmetstud]

5 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Cuomo just interviewed begging for money from Trump. What if every state starts asking for 20-30 billion to balance their budget? I just don't see that happening.

Why would the states have to pay for the entire response? Its a federal/international disaster. 

[OSUmetstud]

I think there is decent evidence to support that seasonal influenza has a higher fatality rate for infants than covid...but it's tilts towards covid pretty quickly with age. 

[BuffaloWeather]

8 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said:

That was the worst flu season in modern history...

The Spanish flu had a lower Ro than Sars Cov 2 and we only know the flu cases from then that were clinically significant. We didn't do antibody testing in 1918. So there was likely asymptomatic or sub clinic cases then too. So what you're seeing from 1918 is really the cases and the case fatality rate. 

Where are you getting the 50 to 80 percent asymptomatic infections according to the cdc?

I can't find any info on the reddit thing you posted about 20 percent positive for antibodies in stockholm. 

Sorry, 50-80% are asymptomatic or have minor symptoms. 15% have severe symptoms, 5% need hospitalization. That Sweden post wasn't from reddit, from another forum.

[BuffaloWeather]

6 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said:

Why would the states have to pay for the entire response? Its a federal/international disaster. 

He was already 6 billion in the negative before this all started.

[OSUmetstud]

Just now, BuffaloWeather said:

Sorry, 50-80% are asymptomatic or have minor symptoms. That Sweden post wasn't from reddit, from another forum.

Yes. Different thing. I found a stockholm preliminary study from late April having 11 percent antibodies in a small test population but that study was pulled due to lack of evidence. We've seen some of the early antibody studies pulled (S cal, Germany, and stockholm) because some of these early tests had poor specificity...with a high chance of false positives. 

[OSUmetstud]

1 minute ago, BuffaloWeather said:

He was already 6 billion in the negative before this all started.

That's different. Im just saying the feds would normally help for something like this...

[BuffaloWeather]

Just now, OSUmetstud said:

Yes. Different thing. I found a stockholm preliminary study from late April having 11 percent antibodies in a small test population but that study was pulled due to lack of evidence. We've seen some of the early antibody studies pulled (S cal, Germany, and stockholm) because some of these early tests had poor specificity...with a high chance of false positives. 

France found out that the virus was there in November. Hundreds of people from the USA travel to France on the daily. It would be safe to presume COVID has been in the USA since early December which means it ran unmitigated for 4 months?

[BuffaloWeather]

https://www.scmp.com/news/china/society/article/3083599/france-had-covid-19-november-hospital-says-after-analysis-chest

• Study finds person who had the disease 10 weeks earlier than the country detected cases
• Contagion believed to have spread slowly until the end of February before accelerating rapidly

[OSUmetstud]

21 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

France found out that the virus was there in November. Hundreds of people from the USA travel to France on the daily. It would be safe to presume COVID has been in the USA since early December which means it ran unmitigated for 4 months?

I dont think it would be safe to assume that..there isn't elevated mortality in the USA until early March. 

[CNY_WX]

1 hour ago, BuffaloWeather said:

My point is the majority of those older and more susceptible to the disease already stay at home. My grandma rarely left the house at all besides shopping for food, and now my aunt does that for her. We have to take certain measures to protect those vulnerable, but for the rest of us we have to open up the country before we destroy more lives then we help.

Of course there are but the percentage is not enough to shut down the entire country for. We face HUGE risk everyday. I think driving our cars is unnecessary for most jobs. I've been in 2 life threatening car accidents where I thought I was going to die. Why don't we all work from home to prevent this from happening? School shootings have been going up and up each year, why don't we teach our kids from home to stop this threat? As soon as we walk out the door we face numerous risks to our life that are preventable from staying at home.

The point is that the more people carrying the virus the greater the chance it can find it’s way to the vulnerable population.  Which brings me to your second point.  It’s fallacious to compare the chance of dying in a car accident or a shooting to dying from Covid-19.  Dying in a car accident is a random singular act.  It happens and it’s over.  No one else in a car behind you is going to die.  If you walk around with the carona virus and you will infect at least one or two other people who in turn will infect one or two others until it spreads through the population eventually finding a vulnerable individual.  If we can stop that by preventing the first individual from being infected we can save lives.

 

[brentrich]

14 hours ago, WesterlyWx said:

The 14 day decline in deaths that WNY was previously meeting will likely not be met anymore once updated. The past week has been the deadliest week yet in Erie County with nearly 100 deaths.

What about Finger Lakes? Do you think we will start phase 1 on May 16th or have to wait till June 6th? 

[lakeeffectkid383]

1 hour ago, brentrich said:

What about Finger Lakes? Do you think we will start phase 1 on May 16th or have to wait till June 6th? 

Honestly I can’t say for sure, however Finger Lakes region has had a much slower increase in cases, deaths, and already had met 5/7 metrics as of last week to begin phase 1. All you guys really need is more contact tracers and more testing which shouldn’t be too hard to obtain in the next week as test seem to be really widely available now, at least here.  WNY (specifically Erie County) has seen the opposite with a large rise in cases (in part due to more testing), a small rise in hospitalizations (definitely not a 14 day decline) and a rise of deaths. I’m not sure why we are doing so much worse here as Monroe County has almost 800k residents compared to our 920k. 

[cleetussnow]

2 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said:

He was already 6 billion in the negative before this all started.

Cuomo can’t figure out how to fund the state in normal times, and doesn’t know why we keep missing revenue targets.  He said it plainly.  

He is doing great on the virus response.  His budget skills are atrocious.  One of the worst in the US.  Maybe CT and IL are worse?