Upstate NY Banter and General Discussion..

[lakeeffectkid383]

1 minute ago, BuffaloWeather said:

A vaccine may not even happen, and if it does could takes years. 

 https://www.cnn.com/2020/05/03/health/coronavirus-vaccine-never-developed-intl/index.html

"There are some viruses that we still do not have vaccines against," says Dr. David Nabarro, a professor of global health at Imperial College London. "We can't make an absolute assumption that a vaccine will appear at all, or if it does appear, whether it will pass all the tests of efficacy and safety.

Most experts remain confident that a Covid-19 vaccine will eventually be developed; in part because, unlike previous diseases like HIV and malaria, the coronavirus does not mutate rapidly.

 

But even if a vaccine is developed, bringing it to fruition in any of those timeframes would be a feat never achieved before. "We've never accelerated a vaccine in a year to 18 months."

In 1984, the US Secretary of Health and Human Services Margaret Heckler announced at a press conference in Washington, DC, that scientists had successfully identified the virus that later became known as HIV -- and predicted that a preventative vaccine would be ready for testing in two years.

Nearly four decades and 32 million deaths later, the world is still waiting for an HIV vaccine.

 

"An effective vaccine for dengue fever, which infects as many as 400,000 people a year according to the WHO, has eluded doctors for decades. In 2017, a large-scale effort to find one was suspended after it was found to worsen the symptoms of the disease."

 

Similarly, it's been very difficult to develop vaccines for the common rhinoviruses and adenoviruses -- which, like coronaviruses, can cause cold symptoms. There's just one vaccine to prevent two strains of adenovirus, and it's not commercially available.

 

"The lockdown is not sustainable economically, and possibly not politically," says Neal. "So we need other things to control it."

 

That means that, as countries start to creep out of their paralyses, experts would push governments to implement an awkward new way of living and interacting to buy the world time in the months, years or decades until Covid-19 can be eliminated by a vaccine.

Would there not be Herd Immunity before decades took place? Seems silly to me. 

[BuffaloWeather]

28 minutes ago, WesterlyWx said:

Would there not be Herd Immunity before decades took place? Seems silly to me. 

Yeah I would think it would take a few years not decades. 

[MJO812]

73 cases in children in NY

 

2 young children now have died in NY

 

This is a huge story now in NY which has Cuomo and Deblasio really worried. Everyone thought this virus was not going to affect children.

[CNY_WX]

18 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Yeah I would think it would take a few years not decades. 

Assuming it takes an infection rate of 60% to achieve herd immunity nearly 200 million Americans would have to be infected.  With a mortality rate of even 0.5% close to a million people would die.  That’s a scary thought.

[BuffaloWeather]

Coronavirus pandemic may lead to 75,000 "deaths of despair" from suicide, drug and alcohol abuse, study says

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/coronavirus-deaths-suicides-drugs-alcohol-pandemic-75000/

[BuffaloWeather]

Bars and restaurants re closing due to 1 man with the virus. 

Life is never going to be the same. 

https://www.nydailynews.com/coronavirus/ny-coronavirus-seould-shuts-down-bars-20200509-fble22hvbbdnnhpjbwmtoac7k4-story.html

"Seoul shut down bars and nightclubs Saturday, following a surge of coronavirus cases — many linked to one man — after South Korea had relaxed its social-distancing policies.

More than 2,100 nightclubs, bars and discos were shuttered under the order Mayor Park Won-soon imposed."

[lakeeffectkid383]

1 minute ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Bars and restaurants re closing due to 1 man with the virus. 

Life is never going to be the same. 

https://www.nydailynews.com/coronavirus/ny-coronavirus-seould-shuts-down-bars-20200509-fble22hvbbdnnhpjbwmtoac7k4-story.html

"Seoul shut down bars and nightclubs Saturday, following a surge of coronavirus cases — many linked to one man — after South Korea had relaxed its social-distancing policies.

More than 2,100 nightclubs, bars and discos were shuttered under the order Mayor Park Won-soon imposed."

It says linked to one man, not one man. It says in 2 days 40 people tested positive after coming in contact with the man at a nightclub. Keep the clubs open and those 40 could effect 40 more each which is 1600 and so and and so forth...

[BuffaloWeather]

47 minutes ago, WesterlyWx said:

It says linked to one man, not one man. It says in 2 days 40 people tested positive after coming in contact with the man at a nightclub. Keep the clubs open and those 40 could effect 40 more each which is 1600 and so and and so forth...

Yes I know that, but that wasn't my point. My point was that one man with the virus can have that type of impact. Going to be impossible to do anything for years. Suck it up herd immunity is the only option. 

If one guy on a NFL or NHL team gets sick the entire team is locked down for possible exposure. There won't be sports for years if there is no vaccine. I just can't see that happening. 

 

[BuffaloWeather]

https://www.statnews.com/2020/05/06/mounting-promises-on-covid-vaccines/

“I don’t think that the general population will have vaccine probably until the second half of 2021. And that’s if everything works OK,” he said.

[BuffaloWeather]

https://www.cnet.com/how-to/when-will-the-coronavirus-vaccine-be-ready-everything-we-know-right-now/

How good are the odds for finding a vaccine?

Not great. Only about 6% of vaccine candidates ever make it through to market, and not just because they don't work. There's a whole litany of problems that could cancel even a promising candidate. Take, for example, what happened when scientists tried to develop a vaccine for SARS -- it backfired and actually made people more susceptible to the disease. Same thing happened with a vaccine for Dengue fever. To make matters worse, coronaviruses are a large class of viruses and so far there are no vaccines for any of them.

However, this particular coronavirus, SARS-CoV-2, has some unique traits that may help researchers working on a vaccine. For example, some viruses, like the flu, mutate quickly and often, which is why there's a new flu vaccine every year. This coronavirus doesn't seem to do that. Although it's still too early to be completely certain what will happen by the time a vaccine is ready, it's thought that the virus has not yet mutated significantly enough to disrupt vaccine development, nor is it expected to.

What happens if we never find a coronavirus vaccine?

The longer we go without a vaccine, the more likely focus will shift toward treatments, such as the experimental antiviral drug remdesivir, which has been showing promising results. Many viruses that used to be fatal are no longer death sentences. Patients with HIV, for example, now can expect to enjoy the same life expectancy as non-HIV-positive individuals, thanks to tremendous advances in treatment.

Without a coronavirus vaccine, the road back to normal may be harder and longer, but not necessarily impossible. Coronavirus testing, including antibody testing, and contact tracing efforts would probably need to intensify. Lockdown measures would probably lift slowly, although depending on how people handle it cities and states may bring them back, including requiring face masks and social distancing. Eventually, the global population may reach the 60% to 70% rate required for herd immunity to protect those who aren't immune.

[wolfie09]

We have live sports!!! Lol 

I think it's the Cornhole championships,  no fans, all wearing mask..

[MJO812]

June 6

 

NY’s shutdown extended to early June, but mid-May restart remains open for some

https://www.syracuse.com/coronavirus/2020/05/nys-shutdown-extended-to-early-june-but-doesnt-rule-out-earlier-opening-for-some-businesses.html

[BuffaloWeather]

12 hours ago, CNY_WX said:

Assuming it takes an infection rate of 60% to achieve herd immunity nearly 200 million Americans would have to be infected.  With a mortality rate of even 0.5% close to a million people would die.  That’s a scary thought.

I don't believe those numbers would be correct if we assume reports from the WHO to be accurate and the latest study just done in regards to immunity thresholds.

" For COVID-19, data to date suggest that 80% of infections are mild or asymptomatic, 15% are severe infection, requiring oxygen and 5% are critical infections, requiring ventilation."

https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/situation-reports/20200306-sitrep-46-covid-19.pdf?sfvrsn=96b04adf_4

So we wouldn't use the entire population as a reference point as the majority of the USA would not have any symptoms at all if we went after herd immunity and the mortality rate would be much lower than expected.

Individual variation in susceptibility or exposure to SARS-CoV-2 lowers the herd immunity threshold

As severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) spreads, the susceptible subpopulation is depleted causing the rate at which new cases occur to decline. Variation in individual susceptibility or exposure to infection exacerbates this effect. Individuals that are frailer, and therefore more susceptible or more exposed, have higher probabilities of being infected, depleting the susceptible subpopulation of those who are at higher risk of infection, and thus intensifying the deceleration in occurrence of new cases. Eventually, susceptible numbers become low enough to prevent epidemic growth or, in other words, herd immunity is attained. Although estimates vary, it is currently believed that herd immunity to SARS-CoV-2 requires 60-70% of the population to be immune. Here we show that variation in susceptibility or exposure to infection can reduce these estimates. Achieving accurate estimates of heterogeneity for SARS-CoV-2 is therefore of paramount importance in controlling the COVID-19 pandemic.

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.27.20081893v1

 

[BuffaloWeather]

The best result would be to have those susceptible to the disease stay inside and offer government/state assistance for food/shelter/stipend until we are able to get a vaccine or herd immunity. The majority of these people stay at home 90% of the time anyways as they are already retired and have underlying health issues. We should also still practice as much social distancing as possible and wear mask as deemed appropriate based on current infection rates in the area. Slowly open the country back up and get enough testing for the entire country. That includes antibody testing done. Require everyone to take the antibody test to see just where we stand in regards to how many people have been infected already. I'm assuming its quite a bit as the virus ran rampant for 4 months in the USA unmitigated. As we obtain these numbers it will allow us to get a better understanding of where the country stands against the virus. No need to stay closed until we get a vaccine, that's impossible.

[BuffaloWeather]

Carnival Cruise Bookings Surge 600% After Announcing August Relaunch

https://thewinglet.boardingarea.com/carnival-cruise-bookings-surge-600-after-announcing-august-relaunch/

These are the same people that bought up all the toilet paper at the grocery stores.

[BuffaloWeather]

 

[lakeeffectkid383]

4 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

I don't believe those numbers would be correct if we assume reports from the WHO to be accurate and the latest study just done in regards to immunity thresholds.

" For COVID-19, data to date suggest that 80% of infections are mild or asymptomatic, 15% are severe infection, requiring oxygen and 5% are critical infections, requiring ventilation."

https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/situation-reports/20200306-sitrep-46-covid-19.pdf?sfvrsn=96b04adf_4

So we wouldn't use the entire population as a reference point as the majority of the USA would not have any symptoms at all if we went after herd immunity and the mortality rate would be much lower than expected.

Individual variation in susceptibility or exposure to SARS-CoV-2 lowers the herd immunity threshold

As severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) spreads, the susceptible subpopulation is depleted causing the rate at which new cases occur to decline. Variation in individual susceptibility or exposure to infection exacerbates this effect. Individuals that are frailer, and therefore more susceptible or more exposed, have higher probabilities of being infected, depleting the susceptible subpopulation of those who are at higher risk of infection, and thus intensifying the deceleration in occurrence of new cases. Eventually, susceptible numbers become low enough to prevent epidemic growth or, in other words, herd immunity is attained. Although estimates vary, it is currently believed that herd immunity to SARS-CoV-2 requires 60-70% of the population to be immune. Here we show that variation in susceptibility or exposure to infection can reduce these estimates. Achieving accurate estimates of heterogeneity for SARS-CoV-2 is therefore of paramount importance in controlling the COVID-19 pandemic.

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.27.20081893v1

 

If you assumed that 60 percent of the US population would need to be infected that is 192,000,000 people infected. If you use the antibody numbers instead of the confirmed numbers you come up with a death rate at the lowest of 0.5 - 0.6 %. Multiply that death rate times the percentage of the population needed for herd immunity you get 960,000 - 1,152,000 deaths. Even if the death rate lowers as the “most vulnerable” population is “depleted” your probably talking around 750,000 deaths in the U.S. if everything goes good. That’s more then double the deaths from the last 10 years of flu seasons combined  (337,200 deaths from 2010-2019 seasons according to the CDC)...

[BuffaloWeather]

5 minutes ago, WesterlyWx said:

If you assumed that 60 percent of the US population would need to be infected that is 192,000,000 people infected. If you use the antibody numbers instead of the confirmed numbers you come up with a death rate at the lowest of 0.5 - 0.6 %. Multiply that death rate times the percentage of the population needed for herd immunity you get 960,000 - 1,152,000 deaths. Even if the death rate lowers as the “most vulnerable” population is “depleted” your probably talking around 750,000 deaths in the U.S. if everything goes good. That’s more then double the deaths from the last 10 years of flu seasons combined  (337,200 deaths from 2010-2019 seasons according to the CDC)...

I'd say around 500k deaths if we go for herd immunity and half of those would have died from almost any illness due to age. So 250k deaths from Covid that normally wouldn't have died. However, those under 70 would be quite low.

[lakeeffectkid383]

13 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

The best result would be to have those susceptible to the disease stay inside and offer government/state assistance for food/shelter/stipend until we are able to get a vaccine or herd immunity. The majority of these people stay at home 90% of the time anyways as they are already retired and have underlying health issues. We should also still practice as much social distancing as possible and wear mask as deemed appropriate based on current infection rates in the area. Slowly open the country back up and get enough testing for the entire country. That includes antibody testing done. Require everyone to take the antibody test to see just where we stand in regards to how many people have been infected already. I'm assuming its quite a bit as the virus ran rampant for 4 months in the USA unmitigated. As we obtain these numbers it will allow us to get a better understanding of where the country stands against the virus. No need to stay closed until we get a vaccine, that's impossible.

The antibody test are interesting to find out how much of the population has been exposed so far and I think that is an important statistic so we can get a much more accurate infection rate and death rate however it’s still not known if you have a positive antibody test if you can become reinfected or have a “flare up” like other diseases such a mono have. The Town of Tonawanda supervisor just tweeted yesterday (as well as on the News) that after testing positive for Covid 5 weeks ago and then recovering, feeling better, and having a negative test result 2 weeks ago, and a positive antibody test, he then just found out 2 days ago he tested positive for active infection again after feeling sick again. There needs to be much more research done on if having positive antibodies mean immunity or not because it seems more and more people who have positive antibodies are able to contact the disease if exposed again or have a “flare up” of the disease that never fully left their system which would then make them contagious as a possible spreader once again. 

[BuffaloWeather]

Just now, WesterlyWx said:

The antibody test are interesting to find out how much of the population has been exposed so far and I think that is an important statistic so we can get a much more accurate infection rate and death rate however it’s still not known if you have a positive antibody test if you can become reinfected or have a “flare up” like other diseases such a mono have. The Town of Tonawanda supervisor just tweeted yesterday (as well as on the News) that after testing positive for Covid 5 weeks ago and then recovering, feeling better, and having a negative test result 2 weeks ago, and a positive antibody test, he then just found out 2 days ago he tested positive for active infection again after feeling sick again. There needs to be much more research done on if having positive antibodies mean immunity or not because it seems more and more people who have positive antibodies are able to contact the disease if exposed again or have a “flare up” of the disease that never fully left their system which would then make them contagious as a possible spreader once again. 

Is this is true the world as we know it will never be the same. I've read quite a few studies that suggest once you've had it you're immune to it and can't spread it like any other virus. In the end the people will dictate how this ends.

[lakeeffectkid383]

4 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

I'd say around 500k deaths if we go for herd immunity and half of those would have died from almost any illness due to age. So 250k deaths from Covid that normally wouldn't have died. However, those under 70 would be quite low.

500k is still approx 15 years of flu deaths and where do you get half the deaths would have died from almost any illness? Just because someone has a comorbidity doesn’t mean they would have just died from “any illness”. If that was the case your seasonal flu deaths would be much higher than they are. You don’t see 80,000 people dying in 2 months from seasonal flu. You can’t just say because they’re old they would have died anyways so their deaths don’t count?

[BuffaloWeather]

[BuffaloWeather]

5 minutes ago, WesterlyWx said:

500k is still approx 15 years of flu deaths and where do you get half the deaths would have died from almost any illness? Just because someone has a comorbidity doesn’t mean they would have just died from “any illness”. If that was the case your seasonal flu deaths would be much higher than they are. You don’t see 80,000 people dying in 2 months from seasonal flu. You can’t just say because they’re old they would have died anyways so their deaths don’t count?

Because old people die bro. It is what it is. The average age of death with this virus is 75 and the average age of death is 78.5 in the USA. Why is that hard to grasp? Less then 5% of people who die from Covid are under 70. Once you get under 65 its far less. The chart above is the reason why, as you age those conditions become more prevalent. I swear some people think we live forever. It's just hard truth.

My grandma is more important to me then anyone on this planet. She was born in 1933 and will be 87 in December and when she dies it will be the worst day I'll ever have to experience. She hasn't left her house since this all started. I haven't visited her at all. She got an ipad before this started and we've been zooming her, but it just inst the same as seeing her. The people susceptible to this disease should stay at home while we get this under control, but the rest of us should get on with our life and stop being so soft.

[BuffaloWeather]

Parts of NY will be opening May 15th!

https://www.wkbw.com/news/coronavirus/parts-of-southern-tier-set-to-reopen-not-here-in-wny?fbclid=IwAR27CWs2TopGyPH5G7irc9LaXvoa46tlLIeL4wrSljj9YCMtdhu-Fvw9tNY

[lakeeffectkid383]

12 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Is this is true the world as we know it will never be the same. I've read quite a few studies that suggest once you've had it you're immune to it and can't spread it like any other virus. In the end the people will dictate how this ends.

I’m not sure if this is true or not but here’s the article. 
 

https://buffalonews.com/2020/05/08/emminger-tests-positive-again-for-covid-19/

 

This is why more research needs to be done to find out wether or not antibodies mean immunity because those are two totally different things. I’ve seen evidence supporting both theories and I think it’s far too early to say anything conclusively either way.

[yoda]

3 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Parts of NY will be opening May 15th!

https://www.wkbw.com/news/coronavirus/parts-of-southern-tier-set-to-reopen-not-here-in-wny?fbclid=IwAR27CWs2TopGyPH5G7irc9LaXvoa46tlLIeL4wrSljj9YCMtdhu-Fvw9tNY

If you live in Binghamton... article says not in Western New York.  Perhaps later maybe... nice to see snow in Buffalo today though

[lakeeffectkid383]

4 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Parts of NY will be opening May 15th!

https://www.wkbw.com/news/coronavirus/parts-of-southern-tier-set-to-reopen-not-here-in-wny?fbclid=IwAR27CWs2TopGyPH5G7irc9LaXvoa46tlLIeL4wrSljj9YCMtdhu-Fvw9tNY

I know the pause order was extended through June 6th for all of NYS but it did say if a region meets all 7 of the Govonors phase 1 reopening metrics they may be able to open prior to June 6th. I know WNY has only 3 of 7 metrics met so I’m not so sure we will be meeting those criteria prior to that date. 

[lakeeffectkid383]

2 minutes ago, yoda said:

If you live in Binghamton... article says not in Western New York.  Perhaps later maybe... nice to see snow in Buffalo today though

Their cases and deaths are next to nothing compared to Erie County. We have seen nearly 1000 cases and 100 deaths in the last week here. Broome County which is their most populous county has only 338 total cases and 22 deaths. That’s almost our new daily average in Erie County. We’re seeing about 200 plus new cases a day, in part because of increased testing, and 12-24 deaths a day. We have more deaths (357 as of yesterday) than they have total cases. I can understand areas such as Southern Tier, CNY, North Country, and even Finger Lakes (Rochester) reopening pre June 6th. 

[BuffaloWeather]

7 minutes ago, WesterlyWx said:

I know the pause order was extended through June 6th for all of NYS but it did say if a region meets all 7 of the Govonors phase 1 reopening metrics they may be able to open prior to June 6th. I know WNY has only 3 of 7 metrics met so I’m not so sure we will be meeting those criteria prior to that date. 

Need more contact tracing/testing. I believe we are on day 6-7 for decline in hospitalizations?

[MJO812]

14 minutes ago, WesterlyWx said:

I know the pause order was extended through June 6th for all of NYS but it did say if a region meets all 7 of the Govonors phase 1 reopening metrics they may be able to open prior to June 6th. I know WNY has only 3 of 7 metrics met so I’m not so sure we will be meeting those criteria prior to that date. 

The pause hasn't been extended. It was a false report going around today .